An Introduction to the True Vote Model

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 

April 1, 2010

 

The corporate media provides the recorded vote in every election. But the recorded vote is not the same as the True Vote. In each election, the True Vote is determined by the turnout of prior election voters and current election new voters. The key statistic is Votes Cast (i.e., voter intent). But the media provides only the recorded vote.

 

There are actually two True Vote models:

- The 1968-2008 National True Vote Model (described here)

- The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model (includes state presidential elections)

http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModelDocGettingStarted.htm

 

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using four different returning voter scenarios.

http://www.richardcharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm

 

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derived a feasible returning vote mix. Votes cast in the previous election are first reduced by voter mortality. Returning voter turnout is estimated for the current election. New voters are calculated as the difference between total votes cast and returning voters.

 

The model used Final National Exit Poll vote-shares in all elections except for 2004, when un-forced 12:22am Preliminary NEP shares (1 % MoE) were available for calculating the True Vote. The 2008 preliminary exit poll shares are suppressed by the National Election Pool consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS, NBC.

 

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

 

This recursive function relates the current to the prior election:

Votes Cast (i) = f (prior election returning voters (i-1) + current election new voters (i))

 

Prior Election:

Recorded Vote

+ Uncounted Votes

= Votes Cast (Census)

- Voter mortality

= Surviving voters

 

Current Election:

Surviving Voter Turnout

+ New Voters

= Votes Cast

 

 

2004 True Vote Model

 

2000

110.9 million cast

105.4 million recorded

75% of uncounted votes to Gore

1.25% annual voter mortality

 

2004

98% returning voter turnout

125.7 million cast

122.3 million recorded

Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares (13047 respondents)

 

2004

 

Kerry wins the True Vote by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)

 

 

National

2000

2000

95%

98%

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

DNV

-

-

-

22,421

17.8%

57.0%

41.0%

2.0%

12,780

9,194

447

-

Gore

56,130

51,004

53,324

52,257

41.6%

91.0%

8.0%

1.0%

47,554

4,182

521

98%

Bush

51,270

50,460

48,706

47,732

38.0%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

4,773

42,959

0

98%

Other

3,573

3,953

3,395

3,327

2.6%

65.0%

13.0%

22.0%

2,162

432

732

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

110,973

105,417

105,424

125,737

390 EV

53.50%

45.15%

1.35%

67,270

56,767

1,700

98%

Net Unctd

5,556

5.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

Gore

Bush

Other

Recorded

255 EV

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

59,028

62,041

1,224

122,294

Recorded

48.38%

47.87%

3.75%

Discrepancy

-

5.23%

-5.58%

0.35%

8,241

(5,273)

476

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

 

The following tables shows that Kerry won by a minimum of 7.5 million votes - even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%. The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Gore and Bush voters.

 

Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 52.3%, assuming a 55% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Gore voters (7.5 million vote margin).

 

Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 53.5%, assuming a 57% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Gore voters (10.5 million margin).

 

Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 54.7%, assuming a 59% share of new (DNV) voters and a 93% share of Gore voters (13.5 million vote margin).

 

Bush Gore turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV Share of Kerry Share of Gore

Turnout

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

 

Bush

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

 

DNV

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Share (%)

 

 

95%

53.6

53.8

53.9

54.0

54.2

 

12%

53.9

54.1

54.3

54.4

54.6

 

59%

53.0

53.4

53.9

54.3

54.7

 

96%

53.4

53.6

53.7

53.9

54.0

 

11%

53.5

53.7

53.9

54.1

54.2

 

58%

52.8

53.3

53.7

54.1

54.5

 

97%

53.2

53.4

53.5

53.7

53.8

 

10%

53.1

53.3

53.5

53.7

53.9

 

57%

52.7

53.1

53.5

53.9

54.3

 

98%

53.1

53.2

53.4

53.5

53.6

 

9%

52.8

52.9

53.1

53.3

53.5

 

56%

52.5

52.9

53.3

53.7

54.2

 

99%

52.9

53.0

53.2

53.3

53.5

 

8%

52.4

52.6

52.7

52.9

53.1

 

55%

52.3

52.7

53.1

53.6

54.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (mil.)

 

 

95%

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.9

12.2

 

12%

11.5

12.0

12.4

12.9

13.3

 

59%

9.3

10.4

11.4

12.4

13.5

 

96%

10.3

10.7

11.1

11.4

11.8

 

11%

10.6

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.4

 

58%

8.9

9.9

11.0

12.0

13.0

 

97%

9.9

10.2

10.6

11.0

11.3

 

10%

9.6

10.1

10.5

11.0

11.4

 

57%

8.4

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.6

 

98%

9.4

9.8

10.1

10.5

10.9

 

9%

8.7

9.1

9.5

10.0

10.4

 

56%

8.0

9.0

10.1

11.1

12.1

 

99%

9.0

9.3

9.7

10.0

10.4

 

8%

7.7

8.1

8.6

9.0

9.5

 

55%

7.5

8.6

9.6

10.7

11.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

Kerry Electoral Vote

 

 

95%

390

390

390

390

390

 

12%

390

390

390

390

398

 

59%

357

370

390

390

398

 

96%

379

390

390

390

390

 

11%

390

390

398

398

398

 

58%

357

379

390

398

398

 

97%

370

379

390

390

390

 

10%

390

390

398

398

398

 

57%

357

379

390

398

398

 

98%

351

370

379

390

390

 

9%

390

390

390

390

398

 

56%

357

370

390

390

398

 

99%

351

351

351

379

390

 

8%

373

379

390

390

390

 

55%

351

351

390

390

390

 

 

 

 

2008

 

Method I:

Final National Exit Poll - Forced to Match Recorded Vote

 

Obama 52.9 - McCain 45.6

 

2004

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

Turnout in 2008

Unctd / stuffed

 

Cast

Official

Unctd

Alive

Cast

Official

Unctd

Mortality

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Other

125,736

122,294

3,442

119,449

132,608

131,370

1,238

6,569

97%

97%

75%

24%

1%

100.00%

97.26%

2.74%

95.00%

100.00%

99.07%

0.93%

5.00%

-

-

0%

100%

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

2004

2004

 

2008

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

-

-

-

17,078

13.0%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

12,125

4,611

341

-

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

48,607

37.0%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

43,260

4,861

486

87%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

60,430

46.0%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

10,273

49,553

604

103%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

5,255

4.0%

72.0%

17.0%

11.0%

3,783

893

578

452%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEP

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

100%

52.86%

45.61%

1.53%

69,442

59,918

2,010

98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

 

 

Method II:

Returning Voters based on 2004 Recorded Vote (Kerry 48.3 Bush 50.7)

 

Obama 55.0 - McCain 43.8

 

 

National

2004

2004

 

2008

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

-

-

-

18,677

14.2%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

13,260

5,043

373

-

Kerry

62,158

59,028

56,077

54,395

41.4%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

48,411

5,440

544

97%

Bush

62,313

62,041

58,939

57,170

43.5%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

9,719

46,880

572

97%

Other

1,266

1,224

1,163

1,128

0.9%

72.0%

17.0%

11.0%

812

192

124

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

125,737

122,294

116,179

131,370

100%

54.96%

43.81%

1.23%

72,203

57,554

1,613

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

-

2.09%

-1.81%

-0.28%

2,746

(2,381)

(365)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method III:

 

Returning Voters based on 2004 State Unadjusted Exit Poll Aggregate (Kerry 52.0- Bush 47.0)

 

Obama 57.0 - McCain 41.8

 

National

2004

2004

 

2008

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

-

-

-

16,441

12.4%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

11,673

4,439

329

-

Kerry

65,340

59,028

62,073

60,211

45.5%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

53,588

6,021

602

97%

Bush

59,138

62,041

56,181

54,496

41.2%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

9,264

44,687

545

97%

Other

1,259

1,224

1,196

1,160

0.9%

72.0%

17.0%

11.0%

835

197

128

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

100%

56.96%

41.83%

1.21%

75,361

55,344

1,603

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

-

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

-

4.09%

-3.79%

-0.29%

5,903

(4,591)

(374)

 

 

 

 

Method IV:

Returning Voters based on 2004 True Vote (Kerry 53.5- Bush 45.2)

 

Obama 58.0 - McCain 40.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

2004

2004

 

2008

Turnout

---Vote shares---

---Votes (000)---

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Turnout

DNV

-

-

-

16,441

12.4%

71.0%

27.0%

2.0%

11,673

4,439

329

-

Kerry

67,219

59,028

63,858

61,942

46.8%

89.0%

10.0%

1.0%

55,129

6,194

619

97%

Bush

56,959

62,041

54,111

52,488

39.7%

17.0%

82.0%

1.0%

8,923

43,040

525

97%

Other

1,559

1,224

1,481

1,437

1.1%

72.0%

17.0%

11.0%

1,034

244

158

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

125,737

122,294

119,450

132,308

419 EV

58.02%

40.75%

1.23%

76,759

53,918

1,631

97%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

Kerry

Bush

Other

Recorded

365 EV

52.87%

45.62%

1.51%

69,457

59,935

1,978

131,370

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

Discrepancy

54 EV

5.14%

-4.87%

-0.27%

7,302

(6,018)

(347)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

 

The following tables show that Obama won by a minimum of 20 million votes - even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%.

The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Kerry and Bush voters.

 

Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 56.8%, assuming a 69% share of new (DNV) voters and an 87% share of Kerry voters, a 19.7 million vote margin.

 

Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 58.0%, assuming a 71% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Kerry voters, a 22.8 million vote margin.

 

Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 59.2%, assuming a 73% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Kerry voters, a 26.0 million vote margin.

 

Coincidentally, Obama had 59.2% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

 

Kerry turnout

 

 

Share of

Obama Share of DNV

 

Share of

Obama Share of Kerry

 

 

 

 

 

turnout

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

 

Bush

69%

70%

71%

72%

73%

 

DNV

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

Obama Share (%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

58.3

58.4

58.5

58.5

58.6

 

19%

58.6

58.7

58.8

58.9

59.1

 

73%

57.3

57.8

58.3

58.7

59.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

96%

58.1

58.1

58.2

58.3

58.4

 

18%

58.2

58.3

58.4

58.5

58.7

 

72%

57.2

57.7

58.1

58.6

59.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

97%

57.8

57.9

58.0

58.1

58.2

 

17%

57.8

57.9

58.0

58.1

58.3

 

71%

57.1

57.5

58.0

58.5

59.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98%

57.6

57.7

57.8

57.9

58.0

 

16%

57.4

57.5

57.6

57.7

57.9

 

70%

57.0

57.4

57.9

58.4

58.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

99%

57.4

57.5

57.6

57.7

57.7

 

15%

57.0

57.1

57.2

57.3

57.5

 

69%

56.8

57.3

57.8

58.2

58.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

Obama Margin (mil.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

95%

23.6

23.8

24.0

24.2

24.5

 

19%

24.3

24.6

24.9

25.3

25.6

 

73%

21.0

22.3

23.5

24.7

26.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

96%

23.0

23.2

23.4

23.7

23.9

 

18%

23.2

23.6

23.9

24.2

24.5

 

72%

20.7

21.9

23.2

24.4

25.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

97%

22.4

22.6

22.8

23.1

23.3

 

17%

22.2

22.5

22.8

23.2

23.5

 

71%

20.4

21.6

22.8

24.1

25.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98%

21.8

22.0

22.3

22.5

22.7

 

16%

21.1

21.5

21.8

22.1

22.4

 

70%

20.0

21.3

22.5

23.8

25.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

99%

21.2

21.4

21.7

21.9

22.1

 

15%

20.1

20.4

20.7

21.1

21.4

 

69%

19.7

20.9

22.2

23.4

24.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

 

 

Obama Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

95%

419

419

419

419

419

 

19%

419

419

419

419

419

 

73%

419

419

419

419

431

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

96%

419

419

419

419

419

 

18%

419

419

419

419

419

 

72%

419

419

419

425

434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

97%

419

419

419

419

419

 

17%

408

419

419

419

419

 

71%

419

419

419

425

434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98%

408

408

408

408

419

 

16%

397

397

408

408

419

 

70%

419

419

419

419

431

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

99%

397

397

408

408

408

 

15%

374

389

389

408

408

 

69%

419

419

419

419

431

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MoE

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.3%

 

MoE

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1.5%

 

MoE

1.17%

1.13%

1.08%

1.04%

0.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1968-2008

 

Final National Exit Polls forced to match the recorded vote

                      

  Recorded Share   Returning Voter Mix   Turnout Required to Match  

  Dem Rep DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other

2008 52.9% 45.6% 13% 37% 46% 4% 87% 103% 451%

2004 48.3% 50.7% 17%. 37% 43% 3% 93% 110% 98%

2000 48.4% 47.9% 18% 41% 33% 8% 96% 93% 92%

                   

1996 49.2% 40.7% 13% 38% 31% 18% 86% 80% 80%

1992 43.0% 37.4% 18.3% 28% 53% 0.7% 74% 119% 85%

1988 45.6% 53.4% 8.4% 33% 58% 0.6% 85% 103% 93%

                   

1984 40.6% 58.8% 16% 34% 44% 6% 93% 98% 81%

1980 41.0% 50.7% 16% 42% 41% 1% 94% 95% 59%

1976 50.1% 48.0% 14.5% 30% 53% 2.5% 91% 96% 89%

                   

1972 36.2% 60.7% 11% 35% 44% 10% 92% 113% 83%

1968 42.9% 43.6% - - - - - - -

                   

Avg 45.3% 48.9% 14.5% 35.5% 44.6% 5.4% 89% 101% 121%

 

 

Democratic True Vote Summary

 

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average

1 Recorded 42.9% 36.2% 50.1% 41.0% 40.6% 45.6% 43.0% 49.2% 48.4% 48.3% 52.9% 45.3%

 

Method

Returning Voters

Based on Prior

2 Recorded Vote 42.9% 39.3% 50.8% 41.3% 41.3% 48.6% 48.8% 48.4% 47.2% 52.4% 55.2% 46.9%

3 Votes Cast 45.3% 40.2% 52.4% 42.3% 43.1% 51.0% 50.8% 49.4% 48.1% 52.9% 55.1% 48.2%

4 True Vote 45.3% 40.4% 53.0% 42.7% 42.1% 49.6% 50.9% 53.8% 50.9% 53.8% 58.3% 49.2%

Discrepancy from

Recorded Vote

2 Recorded Vote - 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 3.0% 5.8% -0.9% -1.2% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8%

3 Votes Cast 2.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.3% 2.6% 5.4% 7.8% 0.2% -0.3% 4.7% 2.3% 3.0%

4 True Vote 2.4% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7% 1.6% 4.0% 7.9% 4.6% 2.5% 5.5% 5.4% 3.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      Recorded Vote

 

        True Vote

 

Margin

True Returning Voter Mix

 

 

 

Dem

Rep

Dem

Rep

Error

DNV

Dem

Rep

Other

 

2008

52.9%

45.6%

58.0%

40.3%

-10.5%

12.4%

46.9%

39.5%

1%

 

2004

48.3%

50.7%

53.5%

45.1%

-10.9%

17.9%

41.3%

37.7%

3%

 

2000

48.4%

47.9%

50.3%

46.0%

-3.9%

13.6%

46.1%

32.0%

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

49.2%

40.7%

53.4%

37.1%

-7.8%

9.4%

46.2%

27.9%

17%

 

1992

43.0%

37.4%

50.9%

30.8%

-14.6%

16.4%

41.5%

41.2%

1%

 

1988

45.6%

53.4%

49.6%

49.3%

-8.1%

11.0%

37.5%

50.9%

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1984

40.6%

58.8%

42.1%

57.2%

-3.1%

17.6%

35.2%

40.3%

7%

 

1980

41.0%

50.7%

42.7%

48.9%

-3.5%

16.8%

44.1%

37.6%

1%

 

1976

50.1%

48.0%

53.0%

45.2%

-5.7%

11.7%

35.7%

50.0%

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1972

36.2%

60.7%

40.4%

56.6%

-8.2%

19.5%

36.5%

33.7%

10%

 

1968

42.9%

43.6%

45.3%

41.9%

-4.1%

-

-

-

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avg

45.3%

48.9%

49.0%

45.3%

-7.3%

14.6%

41.1%

39.1%

5.2%

 

 

 

 

 

Election

2004

Method: True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Voted

2004

True

Shares required to match recorded vote

 

 

 

2000

2000

2000

2000

2004

2004

Turnout

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout/alive

 

 

True

DNV

-

-

-

-

22.56

17.94%

57%

41%

2%

-

 

 

 

50.92%

Gore

56.44

51.00

53.62

52.54

52.54

41.79%

91%

8%

1%

98.0%

 

 

 

45.62%

Bush

50.56

50.46

48.03

47.07

47.07

37.44%

10%

90%

0%

98.0%

 

 

 

3.45%

Other

3.83

3.96

3.63

3.56

3.56

2.83%

64%

17%

19%

98.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Total

110.83

105.42

105.28

103.18

125.74

100%

53.81%

44.88%

1.31%

8.93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

Recorded

Uncounted

 

 

Total

67.66

56.42

1.65

11.23

 

 

 

 

Gore

50.92%

48.38%

75%

 

 

Recorded

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

-2.46%

 

 

 

 

Bush

45.62%

47.86%

25%

 

 

122.30

59.03

62.04

1.23

-3.01

 

 

 

 

Other

3.45%

3.76%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Average

 

 

Dem

45.3%

40.4%

53.0%

42.7%

42.1%

49.6%

50.9%

53.8%

50.9%

53.8%

58.3%

49.2%

 

 

Rep

41.9%

56.6%

45.2%

48.9%

57.2%

49.3%

30.8%

37.2%

45.6%

44.9%

40.1%

45.3%

 

 

Other

12.8%

2.9%

1.8%

8.4%

0.6%

1.1%

18.3%

8.9%

3.5%

1.3%

1.6%

5.6%

 

 

Margin

3.4%

-16.2%

7.8%

-6.3%

-15.1%

0.3%

20.2%

16.6%

5.3%

8.9%

18.2%

3.9%

 

Mix to Match

Dem

55%

35%

30%

42%

34%

33%

28%

38%

41%

37%

37%

37.3%

 

 

Rep

35%

44%

53%

41%

44%

58%

53%

31%

33%

43%

46%

43.7%

 

 

Other

0%

10%

3%

1%

6%

1%

1%

18%

8%

3%

4%

4.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calculated

WPE

4.1%

8.2%

5.7%

3.5%

3.1%

8.1%

14.6%

8.1%

4.8%

11.4%

10.9%

7.5%

 

 

 

Recorded

72.97

77.74

81.53

86.58

92.65

91.60

104.42

96.28

105.42

122.30

131.46

96.63

 

 

Dem

31.27

28.17

40.83

35.48

37.58

41.81

44.91

47.40

51.00

59.03

69.50

44.27

 

 

Rep

31.78

47.17

39.15

43.90

54.46

48.89

39.11

39.20

50.46

62.04

59.95

46.92

 

 

Other

9.91

2.40

1.55

7.19

0.62

0.90

20.41

9.68

3.96

1.23

2.01

5.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll

Dem

na

na

na

na

na

49.8%

45.7%

50.2%

49.4%

52.0%

na

49.42%

 

Recorded

Dem

42.9%

36.2%

50.1%

41.0%

40.6%

45.6%

43.0%

49.2%

48.4%

48.3%

52.9%

45.3%

 

 

Rep

43.6%

60.7%

48.0%

50.7%

58.8%

53.4%

37.4%

40.7%

47.9%

50.7%

45.6%

48.9%

 

 

Other

13.6%

3.1%

1.9%

8.3%

0.7%

1.0%

19.5%

10.1%

3.8%

1.0%

1.5%

5.9%

 

 

Recorded

Margin

-0.7%

-24.4%

2.1%

-9.7%

-18.2%

-7.7%

5.6%

8.5%

0.5%

-2.5%

7.3%

-3.6%

 

 

 

Cast

78.96

85.77

86.70

93.07

101.88

102.22

113.87

105.02

110.83

125.74

132.31

103.30

 

 

Unctd

6.00

8.02

5.17

6.49

9.22

10.66

9.47

8.74

5.77

4.17

0.85

6.78

 

 

Dem

4.50

6.02

3.87

4.87

6.92

8.00

7.10

6.56

4.33

3.13

0.64

5.08

 

 

Rep

1.30

1.94

1.27

1.49

2.29

2.64

1.90

1.97

1.39

1.03

0.21

1.58

 

 

Other

0.20

0.06

0.02

0.13

0.02

0.03

0.46

0.22

0.05

0.01

0.00

0.11

 

 

Allocated

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

35.77

34.19

44.71

40.35

44.50

49.81

52.01

53.96

55.33

62.16

70.14

49.36

 

 

Rep

33.08

49.11

40.41

45.39

56.75

51.53

41.01

41.16

51.84

63.07

60.16

48.50

 

 

Other

10.12

2.46

1.58

7.32

0.64

0.93

20.87

9.90

4.01

1.24

2.01

5.55

 

 

Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

45.3%

39.9%

51.6%

43.4%

43.7%

48.7%

45.7%

51.4%

49.9%

49.4%

53.0%

47.45%

 

 

Rep

41.9%

57.3%

46.6%

48.8%

55.7%

50.4%

36.0%

39.2%

46.8%

50.2%

45.5%

47.12%

 

 

Other

12.8%

2.9%

1.8%

7.9%

0.6%

0.9%

18.3%

9.4%

3.6%

1.0%

1.5%

5.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2004

 

Previous Vote

est

est

est

est

est

 

 

 

 

 

 

1222am

 

Democrat

Dem

73

71

92

71

82

92

83

85

85

90

89

91

 

 

Rep

19

28

7

22

18

7

5

9

13

10

9

8

 

 

Other

8

1

1

7

0

1

12

6

2

0

2

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republican

Dem

4

6

24

11

11

19

21

15

7

9

17

10

 

 

Rep

78

89

74

83

88

80

59

82

91

91

82

90

 

 

Other

18

5

2

6

1

1

20

3

2

0

1

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

Dem

0

40

58

44

49

49

32

32

39

64

72

64

 

 

Rep

0

59

39

42

50

50

30

42

49

17

26

17

 

 

Other

100

1

3

14

1

1

38

26

12

19

2

19

 

Voter Turnout

Dem

94

92

94

94

95

94

98

91

96

98

97

 

 

 

Rep

94

92

94

94

95

94

98

91

96

98

97

 

 

 

 

 

Humphrey

McGovern

Carter

Carter

Mondale

Dukakis

Clinton

Clinton

Gore

Kerry

Obama

 

 

 

 

Nixon

Nixon

Ford

Reagan

Reagan

Bush

Bush

Dole

Bush

Bush

McCain

 

 

Did Not Vote

Wallace

Other

Other

Anderson

Other

Other

Perot

Perot

Other

Other

Other

 

 

 

Dem

38

43

57

39

31

47

46

55

45

54

71

57

 

 

Rep

43

53

40

44

68

51

25

33

48

45

27

41

 

 

Ind

19

4

3

17

1

2

29

12

7

1

2

2

 

 

 

Turnout Required to Match

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Average

 

 

Dem

92.6%

91.6%

91.4%

93.7%

93.5%

84.7%

73.6%

85.8%

96.0%

93.4%

86.7%

89.4%

 

 

Rep

98.9%

113.3%

96.4%

95.4%

97.7%

102.7%

119.2%

80.3%

93.4%

109.7%

102.6%

100.9%

 

 

Ind

na

82.5%

89.3%

58.7%

81.4%

93.2%

85.5%

89.4%

91.7%

97.5%

451.1%

122.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

 

 

 

 

 

Total votes cast

78.96

85.77

86.70

93.07

101.88

102.22

113.87

105.02

110.83

125.74

100.40

 

 

 

Change

2.29

6.80

0.93

6.37

8.81

0.35

11.64

-8.85

5.81

14.91

4.91

 

 

 

4-year mortality

4.29

4.36

4.67

4.65

4.91

5.30

5.23

5.74

5.21

5.41

4.98

 

 

 

Incr votes cast (after mort.)

6.59

11.16

5.60

11.02

13.73

5.64

16.88

-3.11

11.02

20.32

9.88

 

 

 

Incr/ votes cast

8.3%

13.0%

6.5%

11.8%

13.5%

5.5%

14.8%

-3.0%

9.9%

16.2%

9.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast/Voting age

67.8

63.0

59.2

59.2

59.9

57.4

61.3

54.2

54.7

58.30

59.50

 

 

 

Registered VoterTurnout

91.2

87.1

88.7

88.6

87.7

86.2

90.0

82.3

85.5

88.5

87.58

 

 

 

Change in votes cast

3.0

8.6

1.1

7.3

9.5

0.3

11.4

-7.8

5.5

13.5

5.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Recorded Votes

72.97

76.34

79.98

85.11

92.03

91.60

104.42

96.28

105.42

122.30

92.64

 

 

 

Dem

31.28

29.17

40.83

35.48

37.58

41.81

44.91

47.40

51.00

59.03

41.85

 

 

 

Rep

31.79

47.17

39.15

43.90

54.46

48.89

39.10

39.20

50.46

62.04

45.62

 

 

 

Other

9.91

0.00

0.00

5.72

0.00

0.90

20.41

9.68

3.95

1.23

5.18

 

 

 

 

Change

 

3.37

3.64

5.13

6.93

-0.44

12.82

-8.14

9.14

16.88

5.48

 

 

 

New voters

 

7.73

8.30

9.78

11.84

4.86

18.06

-2.40

14.34

22.29

10.53

 

 

 

% total

 

10.1%

10.4%

11.5%

12.9%

5.3%

17.3%

0.0%

13.6%

18.2%

0.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncounted

6.00

9.43

6.72

7.96

9.85

10.63

9.45

8.74

5.41

3.44

7.76

 

 

 

Dem

4.50

7.07

5.04

5.97

7.38

7.97

7.09

6.55

4.06

2.58

5.82

 

 

 

Rep

1.50

2.36

1.68

1.99

2.46

2.66

2.36

2.18

1.35

0.86

1.94

 

 

 

Net Dem

3.00

4.71

3.36

3.98

4.92