An Introduction to the True Vote Model

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 1, 2010

The corporate media provides the recorded vote in every election. But the recorded vote is not the same as the True Vote. In each election, the True Vote is determined by the turnout of prior election voters and current election new voters. The key statistic is Votes Cast (i.e., voter intent). But the media provides only the recorded vote.

There are actually two True Vote models:

- The 1968-2008 National True Vote Model (described here)

- The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model (includes state presidential elections)

http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModelDocGettingStarted.htm

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using four different returning voter scenarios.

http://www.richardcharnin.com/RecursiveTrueVoteModel.htm

Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derived a feasible returning vote mix. Votes cast in the previous election are first reduced by voter mortality. Returning voter turnout is estimated for the current election. New voters are calculated as the difference between total votes cast and returning voters.

The model used Final National Exit Poll vote-shares in all elections except for 2004, when un-forced 12:22am Preliminary NEP shares (1 % MoE) were available for calculating the True Vote. The 2008 preliminary exit poll shares are suppressed by the National Election Pool consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS, NBC.

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

This recursive function relates the current to the prior election:

Votes Cast (i) = f (prior election returning voters (i-1) + current election new voters (i))

Prior Election:

Recorded Vote

+ Uncounted Votes

= Votes Cast (Census)

- Voter mortality

= Surviving voters

Current Election:

Surviving Voter Turnout

+ New Voters

= Votes Cast

2004 True Vote Model

2000

110.9 million cast

105.4 million recorded

75% of uncounted votes to Gore

1.25% annual voter mortality

2004

98% returning voter turnout

125.7 million cast

122.3 million recorded

Preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares (13047 respondents)

2004

Kerry wins the True Vote by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)

National	2000	2000	95%	98%	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	22,421	17.8%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	12,780	9,194	447	-
Gore	56,130	51,004	53,324	52,257	41.6%	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	47,554	4,182	521	98%
Bush	51,270	50,460	48,706	47,732	38.0%	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	4,773	42,959	0	98%
Other	3,573	3,953	3,395	3,327	2.6%	65.0%	13.0%	22.0%	2,162	432	732	98%
True	110,973	105,417	105,424	125,737	390 EV	53.50%	45.15%	1.35%	67,270	56,767	1,700	98%
Net Unctd	5,556	5.01%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	255 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.23%	-5.58%	0.35%	8,241	(5,273)	476

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

The following tables shows that Kerry won by a minimum of 7.5 million votes - even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%. The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Gore and Bush voters.

Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 52.3%, assuming a 55% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Gore voters (7.5 million vote margin).

Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 53.5%, assuming a 57% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Gore voters (10.5 million margin).

Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Kerry has 54.7%, assuming a 59% share of new (DNV) voters and a 93% share of Gore voters (13.5 million vote margin).

Bush Gore turnout Share of Kerry Share of DNV Share of Kerry Share of Gore

Turnout		95%		96%		97%		98%		99%		Bush		55%		56%		57%		58%		59%		DNV		89%		90%		91%		92%		93%
			Kerry Share (%)												Kerry Share (%)												Kerry Share (%)
95%	53.6		53.8		53.9		54.0		54.2		12%		53.9		54.1		54.3		54.4		54.6		59%		53.0		53.4		53.9		54.3		54.7
96%	53.4		53.6		53.7		53.9		54.0		11%		53.5		53.7		53.9		54.1		54.2		58%		52.8		53.3		53.7		54.1		54.5
97%	53.2		53.4		53.5		53.7		53.8		10%		53.1		53.3		53.5		53.7		53.9		57%		52.7		53.1		53.5		53.9		54.3
98%	53.1		53.2		53.4		53.5		53.6		9%		52.8		52.9		53.1		53.3		53.5		56%		52.5		52.9		53.3		53.7		54.2
99%	52.9		53.0		53.2		53.3		53.5		8%		52.4		52.6		52.7		52.9		53.1		55%		52.3		52.7		53.1		53.6		54.0
			Kerry Margin (mil.)												Kerry Margin (mil.)												Kerry Margin (mil.)
95%	10.8		11.2		11.5		11.9		12.2		12%		11.5		12.0		12.4		12.9		13.3		59%		9.3		10.4		11.4		12.4		13.5
96%	10.3		10.7		11.1		11.4		11.8		11%		10.6		11.0		11.5		11.9		12.4		58%		8.9		9.9		11.0		12.0		13.0
97%	9.9		10.2		10.6		11.0		11.3		10%		9.6		10.1		10.5		11.0		11.4		57%		8.4		9.5		10.5		11.5		12.6
98%	9.4		9.8		10.1		10.5		10.9		9%		8.7		9.1		9.5		10.0		10.4		56%		8.0		9.0		10.1		11.1		12.1
99%	9.0		9.3		9.7		10.0		10.4		8%		7.7		8.1		8.6		9.0		9.5		55%		7.5		8.6		9.6		10.7		11.7
			Kerry Electoral Vote												Kerry Electoral Vote												Kerry Electoral Vote
95%	390		390		390		390		390		12%		390		390		390		390		398		59%		357		370		390		390		398
96%	379		390		390		390		390		11%		390		390		398		398		398		58%		357		379		390		398		398
97%	370		379		390		390		390		10%		390		390		398		398		398		57%		357		379		390		398		398
98%	351		370		379		390		390		9%		390		390		390		390		398		56%		357		370		390		390		398
99%	351		351		351		379		390		8%		373		379		390		390		390		55%		351		351		390		390		390

2008

Method I:

Final National Exit Poll - Forced to Match Recorded Vote

Obama 52.9 - McCain 45.6

2004				2008				Turnout in 2008		Unctd / stuffed
Cast	Official	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Official	Unctd	Mortality	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Other
125,736	122,294	3,442	119,449	132,608	131,370	1,238	6,569	97%	97%	75%	24%	1%
100.00%	97.26%	2.74%	95.00%	100.00%	99.07%	0.93%	5.00%	-	-	0%	100%	-
National	2004	2004		2008	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	17,078	13.0%	71.0%	27.0%	2.0%	12,125	4,611	341	-
Kerry	62,158	59,028	56,077	48,607	37.0%	89.0%	10.0%	1.0%	43,260	4,861	486	87%
Bush	62,313	62,041	58,939	60,430	46.0%	17.0%	82.0%	1.0%	10,273	49,553	604	103%
Other	1,266	1,224	1,163	5,255	4.0%	72.0%	17.0%	11.0%	3,783	893	578	452%
NEP	125,737	122,294	116,179	131,370	100%	52.86%	45.61%	1.53%	69,442	59,918	2,010	98%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	365 EV	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370

Method II:

Returning Voters based on 2004 Recorded Vote (Kerry 48.3 – Bush 50.7)

Obama 55.0 - McCain 43.8

National	2004	2004		2008	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	18,677	14.2%	71.0%	27.0%	2.0%	13,260	5,043	373	-
Kerry	62,158	59,028	56,077	54,395	41.4%	89.0%	10.0%	1.0%	48,411	5,440	544	97%
Bush	62,313	62,041	58,939	57,170	43.5%	17.0%	82.0%	1.0%	9,719	46,880	572	97%
Other	1,266	1,224	1,163	1,128	0.9%	72.0%	17.0%	11.0%	812	192	124	97%
Recorded	125,737	122,294	116,179	131,370	100%	54.96%	43.81%	1.23%	72,203	57,554	1,613	97%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	365 EV	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370
Recorded	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	Discrepancy	-	2.09%	-1.81%	-0.28%	2,746	(2,381)	(365)

Method III:

Returning Voters based on 2004 State Unadjusted Exit Poll Aggregate (Kerry 52.0- Bush 47.0)

Obama 57.0 - McCain 41.8

National	2004	2004		2008	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	16,441	12.4%	71.0%	27.0%	2.0%	11,673	4,439	329	-
Kerry	65,340	59,028	62,073	60,211	45.5%	89.0%	10.0%	1.0%	53,588	6,021	602	97%
Bush	59,138	62,041	56,181	54,496	41.2%	17.0%	82.0%	1.0%	9,264	44,687	545	97%
Other	1,259	1,224	1,196	1,160	0.9%	72.0%	17.0%	11.0%	835	197	128	97%
Exit	125,737	122,294	119,450	132,308	100%	56.96%	41.83%	1.21%	75,361	55,344	1,603	97%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	-	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370
Recorded	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	Discrepancy	-	4.09%	-3.79%	-0.29%	5,903	(4,591)	(374)

Method IV:

Returning Voters based on 2004 True Vote (Kerry 53.5- Bush 45.2)

Obama 58.0 - McCain 40.8

National	2004	2004		2008	Turnout	---Vote shares---			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	16,441	12.4%	71.0%	27.0%	2.0%	11,673	4,439	329	-
Kerry	67,219	59,028	63,858	61,942	46.8%	89.0%	10.0%	1.0%	55,129	6,194	619	97%
Bush	56,959	62,041	54,111	52,488	39.7%	17.0%	82.0%	1.0%	8,923	43,040	525	97%
Other	1,559	1,224	1,481	1,437	1.1%	72.0%	17.0%	11.0%	1,034	244	158	97%
True	125,737	122,294	119,450	132,308	419 EV	58.02%	40.75%	1.23%	76,759	53,918	1,631	97%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	365 EV	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370
Recorded	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	Discrepancy	54 EV	5.14%	-4.87%	-0.27%	7,302	(6,018)	(347)

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

The following tables show that Obama won by a minimum of 20 million votes - even assuming his National Exit Poll vote shares are reduced by 2%.

The margin of error for new (DNV) voters is 1.6%; the MoE is 1.1% for returning Kerry and Bush voters.

Worst case scenario (2% reduction in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 56.8%, assuming a 69% share of new (DNV) voters and an 87% share of Kerry voters, a 19.7 million vote margin.

Base case scenario (National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 58.0%, assuming a 71% share of new (DNV) voters and an 89% share of Kerry voters, a 22.8 million vote margin.

Best case scenario (2% increase in National Exit Poll vote shares):

Obama has 59.2%, assuming a 73% share of new (DNV) voters and a 91% share of Kerry voters, a 26.0 million vote margin.

Coincidentally, Obama had 59.2% of the 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.

Bush		Kerry turnout				Share of		Obama Share of DNV				Share of		Obama Share of Kerry
turnout	95%	96%	97%	98%	99%	Bush	69%	70%	71%	72%	73%	DNV	87%	88%	89%	90%	91%
		Obama Share (%)						Obama Share (%)						Obama Share (%)
95%	58.3	58.4	58.5	58.5	58.6	19%	58.6	58.7	58.8	58.9	59.1	73%	57.3	57.8	58.3	58.7	59.2
96%	58.1	58.1	58.2	58.3	58.4	18%	58.2	58.3	58.4	58.5	58.7	72%	57.2	57.7	58.1	58.6	59.1
97%	57.8	57.9	58.0	58.1	58.2	17%	57.8	57.9	58.0	58.1	58.3	71%	57.1	57.5	58.0	58.5	59.0
98%	57.6	57.7	57.8	57.9	58.0	16%	57.4	57.5	57.6	57.7	57.9	70%	57.0	57.4	57.9	58.4	58.8
99%	57.4	57.5	57.6	57.7	57.7	15%	57.0	57.1	57.2	57.3	57.5	69%	56.8	57.3	57.8	58.2	58.7
		Obama Margin (mil.)						Obama Margin (mil.)						Obama Margin (mil.)
95%	23.6	23.8	24.0	24.2	24.5	19%	24.3	24.6	24.9	25.3	25.6	73%	21.0	22.3	23.5	24.7	26.0
96%	23.0	23.2	23.4	23.7	23.9	18%	23.2	23.6	23.9	24.2	24.5	72%	20.7	21.9	23.2	24.4	25.6
97%	22.4	22.6	22.8	23.1	23.3	17%	22.2	22.5	22.8	23.2	23.5	71%	20.4	21.6	22.8	24.1	25.3
98%	21.8	22.0	22.3	22.5	22.7	16%	21.1	21.5	21.8	22.1	22.4	70%	20.0	21.3	22.5	23.8	25.0
99%	21.2	21.4	21.7	21.9	22.1	15%	20.1	20.4	20.7	21.1	21.4	69%	19.7	20.9	22.2	23.4	24.7
		Obama Electoral Vote						Obama Electoral Vote						Obama Electoral Vote
95%	419	419	419	419	419	19%	419	419	419	419	419	73%	419	419	419	419	431
96%	419	419	419	419	419	18%	419	419	419	419	419	72%	419	419	419	425	434
97%	419	419	419	419	419	17%	408	419	419	419	419	71%	419	419	419	425	434
98%	408	408	408	408	419	16%	397	397	408	408	419	70%	419	419	419	419	431
99%	397	397	408	408	408	15%	374	389	389	408	408	69%	419	419	419	419	431
MoE	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	MoE	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.5%	MoE	1.17%	1.13%	1.08%	1.04%	0.99%

1968-2008

Final National Exit Polls – forced to match the recorded vote

Recorded Share Returning Voter Mix Turnout Required to Match

Dem Rep DNV Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other

2008 52.9% 45.6% 13% 37% 46% 4% 87% 103% 451%

2004 48.3% 50.7% 17%. 37% 43% 3% 93% 110% 98%

2000 48.4% 47.9% 18% 41% 33% 8% 96% 93% 92%

1996 49.2% 40.7% 13% 38% 31% 18% 86% 80% 80%

1992 43.0% 37.4% 18.3% 28% 53% 0.7% 74% 119% 85%

1988 45.6% 53.4% 8.4% 33% 58% 0.6% 85% 103% 93%

1984 40.6% 58.8% 16% 34% 44% 6% 93% 98% 81%

1980 41.0% 50.7% 16% 42% 41% 1% 94% 95% 59%

1976 50.1% 48.0% 14.5% 30% 53% 2.5% 91% 96% 89%

1972 36.2% 60.7% 11% 35% 44% 10% 92% 113% 83%

1968 42.9% 43.6% - - - - - - -

Avg 45.3% 48.9% 14.5% 35.5% 44.6% 5.4% 89% 101% 121%

Democratic True Vote Summary

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average

1 Recorded 42.9% 36.2% 50.1% 41.0% 40.6% 45.6% 43.0% 49.2% 48.4% 48.3% 52.9% 45.3%

Method

Returning Voters

Based on Prior

2 Recorded Vote 42.9% 39.3% 50.8% 41.3% 41.3% 48.6% 48.8% 48.4% 47.2% 52.4% 55.2% 46.9%

3 Votes Cast 45.3% 40.2% 52.4% 42.3% 43.1% 51.0% 50.8% 49.4% 48.1% 52.9% 55.1% 48.2%

4 True Vote 45.3% 40.4% 53.0% 42.7% 42.1% 49.6% 50.9% 53.8% 50.9% 53.8% 58.3% 49.2%

Discrepancy from

Recorded Vote

2 Recorded Vote - 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 3.0% 5.8% -0.9% -1.2% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8%

3 Votes Cast 2.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.3% 2.6% 5.4% 7.8% 0.2% -0.3% 4.7% 2.3% 3.0%

4 True Vote 2.4% 4.2% 2.9% 1.7% 1.6% 4.0% 7.9% 4.6% 2.5% 5.5% 5.4% 3.9%

	Recorded Vote				True Vote				Margin			True Returning Voter Mix
	Dem		Rep		Dem		Rep		Error			DNV			Dem			Rep			Other
2008	52.9%		45.6%		58.0%		40.3%		-10.5%			12.4%			46.9%			39.5%			1%
2004	48.3%		50.7%		53.5%		45.1%		-10.9%			17.9%			41.3%			37.7%			3%
2000	48.4%		47.9%		50.3%		46.0%		-3.9%			13.6%			46.1%			32.0%			8%
1996	49.2%		40.7%		53.4%		37.1%		-7.8%			9.4%			46.2%			27.9%			17%
1992	43.0%		37.4%		50.9%		30.8%		-14.6%			16.4%			41.5%			41.2%			1%
1988	45.6%		53.4%		49.6%		49.3%		-8.1%			11.0%			37.5%			50.9%			1%
1984	40.6%		58.8%		42.1%		57.2%		-3.1%			17.6%			35.2%			40.3%			7%
1980	41.0%		50.7%		42.7%		48.9%		-3.5%			16.8%			44.1%			37.6%			1%
1976	50.1%		48.0%		53.0%		45.2%		-5.7%			11.7%			35.7%			50.0%			3%
1972	36.2%		60.7%		40.4%		56.6%		-8.2%			19.5%			36.5%			33.7%			10%
1968	42.9%		43.6%		45.3%		41.9%		-4.1%			-			-			-			-
Avg	45.3%		48.9%		49.0%		45.3%		-7.3%			14.6%			41.1%			39.1%			5.2%
Election	2004	Method: True Vote
					Cast		Recorded		Alive		Voted			2004			True			Shares required to match recorded vote
	2000	2000			2000		2000		2004		2004			Turnout			Mix			Kerry			Bush		Other		Turnout/alive
	True	DNV			-		-		-		-			22.56			17.94%			57%			41%		2%		-
	50.92%	Gore			56.44		51.00		53.62		52.54			52.54			41.79%			91%			8%		1%		98.0%
	45.62%	Bush			50.56		50.46		48.03		47.07			47.07			37.44%			10%			90%		0%		98.0%
	3.45%	Other			3.83		3.96		3.63		3.56			3.56			2.83%			64%			17%		19%		98.0%
		Total			110.83		105.42		105.28		103.18			125.74			100%			53.81%			44.88%		1.31%		8.93%
					True		Recorded		Uncounted								Total			67.66			56.42		1.65		11.23
		Gore			50.92%		48.38%		75%								Recorded			48.27%			50.73%		1.00%		-2.46%
		Bush			45.62%		47.86%		25%								122.30			59.03			62.04		1.23		-3.01
		Other			3.45%		3.76%
	True	1968			1972		1976		1980		1984			1988			1992			1996			2000		2004		2008		Average
	Dem	45.3%			40.4%		53.0%		42.7%		42.1%			49.6%			50.9%			53.8%			50.9%		53.8%		58.3%		49.2%
	Rep	41.9%			56.6%		45.2%		48.9%		57.2%			49.3%			30.8%			37.2%			45.6%		44.9%		40.1%		45.3%
	Other	12.8%			2.9%		1.8%		8.4%		0.6%			1.1%			18.3%			8.9%			3.5%		1.3%		1.6%		5.6%
	Margin	3.4%			-16.2%		7.8%		-6.3%		-15.1%			0.3%			20.2%			16.6%			5.3%		8.9%		18.2%		3.9%
Mix to Match	Dem	55%			35%		30%		42%		34%			33%			28%			38%			41%		37%		37%		37.3%
	Rep	35%			44%		53%		41%		44%			58%			53%			31%			33%		43%		46%		43.7%
	Other	0%			10%		3%		1%		6%			1%			1%			18%			8%		3%		4%		4.9%
Calculated	WPE	4.1%			8.2%		5.7%		3.5%		3.1%			8.1%			14.6%			8.1%			4.8%		11.4%		10.9%		7.5%
	Recorded	72.97			77.74		81.53		86.58		92.65			91.60			104.42			96.28			105.42		122.30		131.46		96.63
	Dem	31.27			28.17		40.83		35.48		37.58			41.81			44.91			47.40			51.00		59.03		69.50		44.27
	Rep	31.78			47.17		39.15		43.90		54.46			48.89			39.11			39.20			50.46		62.04		59.95		46.92
	Other	9.91			2.40		1.55		7.19		0.62			0.90			20.41			9.68			3.96		1.23		2.01		5.44
Exit Poll	Dem	na			na		na		na		na			49.8%			45.7%			50.2%			49.4%		52.0%		na		49.42%
Recorded	Dem	42.9%			36.2%		50.1%		41.0%		40.6%			45.6%			43.0%			49.2%			48.4%		48.3%		52.9%		45.3%
	Rep	43.6%			60.7%		48.0%		50.7%		58.8%			53.4%			37.4%			40.7%			47.9%		50.7%		45.6%		48.9%
	Other	13.6%			3.1%		1.9%		8.3%		0.7%			1.0%			19.5%			10.1%			3.8%		1.0%		1.5%		5.9%
Recorded	Margin	-0.7%			-24.4%		2.1%		-9.7%		-18.2%			-7.7%			5.6%			8.5%			0.5%		-2.5%		7.3%		-3.6%
	Cast	78.96			85.77		86.70		93.07		101.88			102.22			113.87			105.02			110.83		125.74		132.31		103.30
	Unctd	6.00			8.02		5.17		6.49		9.22			10.66			9.47			8.74			5.77		4.17		0.85		6.78
	Dem	4.50			6.02		3.87		4.87		6.92			8.00			7.10			6.56			4.33		3.13		0.64		5.08
	Rep	1.30			1.94		1.27		1.49		2.29			2.64			1.90			1.97			1.39		1.03		0.21		1.58
	Other	0.20			0.06		0.02		0.13		0.02			0.03			0.46			0.22			0.05		0.01		0.00		0.11
	Allocated
	Dem	35.77			34.19		44.71		40.35		44.50			49.81			52.01			53.96			55.33		62.16		70.14		49.36
	Rep	33.08			49.11		40.41		45.39		56.75			51.53			41.01			41.16			51.84		63.07		60.16		48.50
	Other	10.12			2.46		1.58		7.32		0.64			0.93			20.87			9.90			4.01		1.24		2.01		5.55
	Share
	Dem	45.3%			39.9%		51.6%		43.4%		43.7%			48.7%			45.7%			51.4%			49.9%		49.4%		53.0%		47.45%
	Rep	41.9%			57.3%		46.6%		48.8%		55.7%			50.4%			36.0%			39.2%			46.8%		50.2%		45.5%		47.12%
	Other	12.8%			2.9%		1.8%		7.9%		0.6%			0.9%			18.3%			9.4%			3.6%		1.0%		1.5%		5.53%
		1968			1972		1976		1980		1984			1988			1992			1996			2000		2004		2008		2004
Previous Vote		est			est		est		est		est																		1222am
Democrat	Dem	73			71		92		71		82			92			83			85			85		90		89		91
	Rep	19			28		7		22		18			7			5			9			13		10		9		8
	Other	8			1		1		7		0			1			12			6			2		0		2		1
Republican	Dem	4			6		24		11		11			19			21			15			7		9		17		10
	Rep	78			89		74		83		88			80			59			82			91		91		82		90
	Other	18			5		2		6		1			1			20			3			2		0		1		0
Other	Dem	0			40		58		44		49			49			32			32			39		64		72		64
	Rep	0			59		39		42		50			50			30			42			49		17		26		17
	Other	100			1		3		14		1			1			38			26			12		19		2		19
Voter Turnout	Dem	94			92		94		94		95			94			98			91			96		98		97
	Rep	94			92		94		94		95			94			98			91			96		98		97
		Humphrey			McGovern		Carter		Carter		Mondale			Dukakis			Clinton			Clinton			Gore		Kerry		Obama
		Nixon			Nixon		Ford		Reagan		Reagan			Bush			Bush			Dole			Bush		Bush		McCain
Did Not Vote		Wallace			Other		Other		Anderson		Other			Other			Perot			Perot			Other		Other		Other
	Dem	38			43		57		39		31			47			46			55			45		54		71		57
	Rep	43			53		40		44		68			51			25			33			48		45		27		41
	Ind	19			4		3		17		1			2			29			12			7		1		2		2
	Turnout Required to Match
		1968			1972		1976		1980		1984			1988			1992			1996			2000		2004		2008		Average
	Dem	92.6%			91.6%		91.4%		93.7%		93.5%			84.7%			73.6%			85.8%			96.0%		93.4%		86.7%		89.4%
	Rep	98.9%			113.3%		96.4%		95.4%		97.7%			102.7%			119.2%			80.3%			93.4%		109.7%		102.6%		100.9%
	Ind	na			82.5%		89.3%		58.7%		81.4%			93.2%			85.5%			89.4%			91.7%		97.5%		451.1%		122.0%
				1968		1972		1976		1980			1984			1988			1992			1996		2000		2004
Total votes cast				78.96		85.77		86.70		93.07			101.88			102.22			113.87			105.02		110.83		125.74		100.40
Change				2.29		6.80		0.93		6.37			8.81			0.35			11.64			-8.85		5.81		14.91		4.91
4-year mortality				4.29		4.36		4.67		4.65			4.91			5.30			5.23			5.74		5.21		5.41		4.98
Incr votes cast (after mort.)				6.59		11.16		5.60		11.02			13.73			5.64			16.88			-3.11		11.02		20.32		9.88
Incr/ votes cast				8.3%		13.0%		6.5%		11.8%			13.5%			5.5%			14.8%			-3.0%		9.9%		16.2%		9.66%
Cast/Voting age				67.8		63.0		59.2		59.2			59.9			57.4			61.3			54.2		54.7		58.30		59.50
Registered VoterTurnout				91.2		87.1		88.7		88.6			87.7			86.2			90.0			82.3		85.5		88.5		87.58
Change in votes cast				3.0		8.6		1.1		7.3			9.5			0.3			11.4			-7.8		5.5		13.5		5.25
Total Recorded Votes				72.97		76.34		79.98		85.11			92.03			91.60			104.42			96.28		105.42		122.30		92.64
Dem				31.28		29.17		40.83		35.48			37.58			41.81			44.91			47.40		51.00		59.03		41.85
Rep				31.79		47.17		39.15		43.90			54.46			48.89			39.10			39.20		50.46		62.04		45.62
Other				9.91		0.00		0.00		5.72			0.00			0.90			20.41			9.68		3.95		1.23		5.18
Change						3.37		3.64		5.13			6.93			-0.44			12.82			-8.14		9.14		16.88		5.48
New voters						7.73		8.30		9.78			11.84			4.86			18.06			-2.40		14.34		22.29		10.53
% total						10.1%		10.4%		11.5%			12.9%			5.3%			17.3%			0.0%		13.6%		18.2%		0.11
Uncounted				6.00		9.43		6.72		7.96			9.85			10.63			9.45			8.74		5.41		3.44		7.76
Dem				4.50		7.07		5.04		5.97			7.38			7.97			7.09			6.55		4.06		2.58		5.82
Rep				1.50		2.36		1.68		1.99			2.46			2.66			2.36			2.18		1.35		0.86		1.94
Net Dem				3.00		4.71		3.36		3.98