Using the True Vote Model to Analyze the Wisconsin 1988-2008 Presidential Elections

Using the True Vote Model to Analyze the Wisconsin 1988-2008 Presidential Elections

April 15, 2011

With the news of an incredible 97.3% turnout of registered voters in the 2004 Waukesha County presidential election, we need an analysis of the Wisconsin 2004 presidential election.

Of the 236,642 registered voters in Waukesha, apparently 231,031 voted. That is unheard of turnout.

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8472

The True Vote Model (TVM) is a spreadsheet that anyone connected to the internet can use to analyze presidential elections from 1988 to 2008..

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tpsLLEzC1Ccb7FsEN-EgZhQ#gid=0

In the six elections from 1988 to 2008, the Democrats won the average Wisconsin presidential recorded vote by 49.2-43.7%, a solid 5.5% margin.

In 2004, Kerry barely won the recorded vote by 49.7-49.3%., a measly 0.4% margin.

But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 52.1-46.9%, a solid 5.2% margin.

The Census Bureau survey indicated that in Wisconsin approximately 13,000 more votes were cast than recorded (net uncounted votes).

Net Uncounted Vote = 13,000 = Uncounted – stuffed ballots

We do not know how many ballots were uncounted or stuffed – only that uncounted ballots exceeded stuffed ballots by 13000.

Consider three scenarios, assuming that the unadjusted exit poll was a close approximation of the True Vote.

1) 1% of total votes cast (30,000) were uncounted:

Then 17,000 ballots were stuffed and 56,000 votes were switched (electronically?) from Kerry to Bush.

2) 2% of votes cast (60,000) uncounted:

Then 47,000 ballots were stuffed and 34,000 votes were switched.

3) 3% of votes cast (90,000) uncounted:

In this scenario, 77,000 ballots were stuffed and 11,000 votes were switched.

WI ADJ. TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Voted 2000 Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout

New/DNV 18.2% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2% -

Gore 39.4% 86.2% 13.2% 0.6% 98.0%

Bush 38.7% 9.5% 90.5% 0.0% 98.0%

Other 3.7% 60.6% 25.7% 13.7% 98.0%

Recorded 100% 49.70% 49.32% 0.98% 98.0%

Exit Poll 100% 52.10% 46.92% 0.98% -

WI EXIT POLL DISCREPANCY (000)

Margin

Exit Poll 3,010 1,568 1,412 30 156

- Net Adj. -13 -79 66 0 -145

Recorded 2,997 1,490 1,478 29 11

WI RECORDED SHARE

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average

Dem 51.4% 41.1% 48.8% 47.8% 49.7% 56.2% 49.2%

Rep 47.8% 36.8% 38.5% 47.6% 49.3% 42.3% 43.7%

Margin 3.6% 4.3% 10.3% 0.2% 0.4% 13.9% 5.5%

DEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL vs. RECORDED Average

Exit Poll 50.3% 42.4% 50.2% 46.6% 52.1% 59.1% 50.1%

Record 51.4% 41.1% 48.8% 47.8% 49.7% 56.2% 49.2%

Diff -1.1% 1.3% 1.4% -1.2% 2.4% 2.9% 1.0%

Unadjusted 2008 exit polls suppressed by the media consortium. True Vote is shown.

WI vs. FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL

2000 NEP 2004 National Exit Poll WI Recorded

New Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV 17.0% 54% 44% 2% 18.2% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%

Gore 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 39.4% 86.2% 13.2% 0.6%

Bush 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 38.7% 9.5% 90.5% 0.0%

Other 3.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.7% 60.6% 25.7% 13.7%

Total 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100.0% 49.70% 49.32% 0.98%

COMPONENTS OF FRAUD

WI Total Kerry Bush Other

Exit Poll 100% 52.1% 46.9% 1.0%

Votes Cast 3,010 1,568 1,412 30

Uncounted 90 68 22 1 3.00% of votes cast

- Stuffed 77 0 77 0 2.57% of votes cast

=Net Unctd 13 68 -56 1

+Switched 0 11 -10 -1 0.70% of Kerry votes switched

Net Adjust. -13 -79 66 0

Recorded 2,997 1,490 1,478 29

Share 100.0% 49.7% 49.3% 1.0%