True Vote Models

 

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

                                                                                                                                                                                          

Aug. 1, 2012

 

Spreadsheet Docs: Databases and True Vote models:

 

Wisconsin Gov. Walker Recall

 

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model

 

Unadjusted 1988-2008 Presidential State and National Exit Polls

 

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

 

2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Model

 

2000-2004 County Presidential True Vote Model

 

2004 Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model (based on pre-election and exit polls)

 

1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

 

Wisconsin True Vote Model:  2010 Senate, Governor, 2011 Supreme Court, Recalls

 

 

1. 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

 

The TVM is a forensic tool to determine the likelihood of vote miscounting in state and national elections.

Calculates the True Vote based on total votes cast, voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.

Returning voters are calculated using the previous 1) recorded vote, 2) votes cast, 3) unadjusted exit poll and 4) True Vote.

The built-in sensitivity analysis calculates vote shares and margins over a range of scenarios.

Shares of new and returning voters required to match the recorded vote, exit poll or an input vote share are calculated automatically.

 

2004              

                                                                       

National True Vote                                     Final National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

2000

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

18%

57%

41%

2%

 

17%

54%

44%

2%

Gore

41.5%

91%

8%

1%

 

37%

90%

10%

0%

Bush

37.7%

10%

90%

0%

 

43%

9%

91%

0%

Other

3%

64%

17%

19%

 

3%

64%

14%

22%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100.0%

53.6%

45.4%

1.0%

 

100%

48.27%

50.73%

1.00%

(000)

125,736

67,394

57,084

1,257

 

122,295

59,032

62,040

1,223

                                                                                                                                                                                          

 

                                                Ohio 2004 True Vote Analysis                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                   

                                    Returning voters based on the 2000 TRUE VOTE                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                               

Ohio

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

Recorded Vote (Final Exit Poll)

2000

Voted

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

Turnout

 

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New/DNV

995

18.1%

59.5%

38.5%

2.0%

-

 

18.1%

55.6%

43.6%

0.7%

Gore

2,138

39.0%

91.0%

8.0%

1.0%

98.0%

 

39.0%

85.0%

14.6%

0.4%

Bush

2,192

40.0%

10.0%

90.0%

0.0%

98.0%

 

40.0%

9.3%

90.7%

0.0%

Othe

160

2.9%

64.0%

17.0%

19.0%

98.0%

 

2.9%

59.8%

33.2%

7.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Vote

5.485

100.0%

52.1%

46.6%

1.3%

 

 

100.0%

48.7%

50.8%

0.5%

Recorded

-

100.0%

48.7%

50.8%

0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

Voted

Kerry

Bush

Other

Margin

Pct

 

Kerry

Bush

 

 

True Vote

5,485

2,860

2,554

72

306

5.6%

 

364

174

True Vote

 

Recorded

5,628

2,741

2,860

27

-119

-2.1%

 

251

286

Recorded Vote

Discrepancy

-143

119

-306

45

425

7.7%

 

113

-112

 

 

                               

                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                Ohio True Vote Sensitivity Analysis                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                               

Share           Kerry share of New voters (DNV)                                        Kerry share of returning Gore voters                                                         

of Bush  55.5%      57.5%      59.5%      61.5%      63.5%                      89.0%      90.0%      91.0%      92.0%      93.0%

 

Kerry Vote Share                                                                   Kerry Vote Share  

 

12%         52.2%      52.6%      52.9%      53.3%      53.7%                      52.2%      52.5%      52.9%      53.3%      53.7%

11%         51.8%      52.2%      52.5%      52.9%      53.3%                      51.8%      52.1%      52.5%      52.9%      53.3%

10%         51.4%      51.8%      52.1%      52.5%      52.9%                      51.4%      51.7%      52.1%      52.5%      52.9%

9%           51.0%      51.4%      51.7%      52.1%      52.5%                      51.0%      51.3%      51.7%      52.1%      52.5%

8%           50.6%      51.0%      51.3%      51.7%      52.1%                      50.6%      50.9%      51.3%      51.7%      52.1%

 

                                                Margin                                                                                    Margin                   

 

12%         314          354          394          434          473                          308          351          394          437          479

11%         270          310          350          390          430                          265          307          350          393          436

10%         227          266          306          346          386                          221          263          306          349          392

9%           183          223          262          302          342                          177          220          262          305          348

8%           139          179          219          258          298                          133          176          219          261          304

                                                                                                                                                                               

MoE: 3.0%                                                 Kerry Popular Vote Win Probability                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                               

12%         97.1%      98.4%      99.1%      99.6%      99.8%                      96.9%      98.3%      99.1%      99.6%      99.8%

11%         94.9%      96.9%      98.3%      99.1%      99.5%                      94.5%      96.8%      98.3%      99.1%      99.6%

10%         91.4%      94.6%      96.8%      98.2%      99.0%                      90.9%      94.4%      96.8%      98.2%      99.1%

9%           86.5%      91.0%      94.3%      96.6%      98.0%                      85.7%      90.7%      94.3%      96.7%      98.2%

8%           79.9%      86.0%      90.6%      94.1%      96.4%                      78.9%      85.6%      90.6%      94.3%      96.7%

 

 

 

2. 1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

 

Calculates the True Vote based on total votes cast, voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.

Returning voters are calculated using the previous election 1) recorded vote, 2) votes cast, 3) unadjusted exit poll and 4) True Vote.

For 1968-1984, vote shares required to match the recorded vote are used; for 1988-2008, National Exit Poll shares.

 

2008

 

Method: True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

True

Votes

    Votes

95%

97%

   Total

NEP Vote Shares

 

Total Votes Cast

 

 

Voted

Share

Cast

Recorded

Alive

Turnout

Turnout

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

 

DNV

-

-

-

-

-

16.4

12.4%

71%

27%

2%

11.7

4.4

0.3

Kerry

53.5%

67.3

59

63.9

62

62

46.9%

89%

9%

2%

55.2

5.6

1.2

Bush

45.3%

56.7

62

53.8

52.2

52.2

39.5%

17%

82%

1%

8.9

42.8

0.5

Other

1.2%

1.8

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.3%

72%

26%

2%

1.2

0.4

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

125.7

122.3

119.4

115.9

132.3

100%

58.0%

40.3%

1.6%

76.9

53.3

2.1

 

 

 

                1968        1972        1976        1980        1984        1988        1992        1996        2000        2004        2008        Average

True Vote

Dem        45.3%      39.3%      53.3%      42.1%      42.5%      50.2%      50.4%      52.6%      50.8%      53.5%      58.0%      48.9%

Rep         41.7%      57.4%      45.0%      49.6%      56.9%      48.3%      31.0%      37.1%      46.5%      45.3%      40.3%      45.4%

Other      13.0%      3.3%        1.7%        8.3%        0.6%        1.5%        18.6%      10.3%      2.7%        1.2%        1.7%        5.7%

 

Margin    3.6%        -18.1%    8.3%        -7.5%      -14.5%    1.9%        19.4%      15.5%      4.3%        8.2%        17.7%      3.5%

 

Recorded

Dem        42.9%      36.2%      50.1%      41.0%      40.6%      45.6%      43.0%      49.2%      48.4%      48.3%      52.9%      45.3%

Rep         43.6%      60.7%      48.0%      50.7%      58.8%      53.4%      37.4%      40.7%      47.9%      50.7%      45.6%      48.9%

Other      13.6%      3.1%        1.9%        8.3%        0.7%        1.0%        19.5%      10.1%      3.8%        1.0%        1.5%        5.9%

 

Margin    -0.7%      -24.4%    2.1%        -9.7%      -18.2%    -7.7%      5.6%        8.5%        0.5%        -2.5%      7.3%        -3.6%

 

 

3. Wisconsin True Vote Model:  2010 Senate, Governor, 2011 Supreme Court, Recalls

 

The model uses individual county vote data. 

The nine recall elections are analyzed by district with Unit/Ward data provided for the four recalls won by the Republicans.

Analysis of the five recall exit polls is included.

 

2008

 

 

97%

 

2011

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

J Klo

Prosser

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

1,677,211

56.2%

1,626,895

50%

813,447

54.3%

90%

10%

McCain

1,262,393

42.3%

1,224,521

50%

612,261

40.8%

5%

95%

Other

43,813

1.5%

42,499

50%

21,249

1.4%

50%

50%

DNV

-

 

-

-

51,923

3.5%

50%

50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

2,983,417

100%

2,893,914

50%

1,498,880

Share

53.3%

46.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

799,302

699,578

 

 

 

Total

50.24%

 

Margin

99,723

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Share

49.7%

50.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

745,007

752,323

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-7,316

 

                                               

                                               

                                    Voter Turnout                                       J Klo share of  

                                    Obama McCain                                     Obama McCain

                                    50.0%   50.0%                                       90.0%   5.0%

 

Kloppenburg share of Obama                                      Obama Turnout

JKlo %

85%

90%

95%

 

McCain

45%

50%

55%

McCain

 

 

 

 

Turnout

 

 

 

 

 

J Klo %

 

 

 

 

J Klo %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

52.7

55.4

58.1

 

45%

53.0

55.2

57.3

5%

50.6

53.3

56.0

 

50%

51.2

53.3

55.5

0%

48.6

51.3

54.0

 

55%

49.3

51.5

53.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

79,605

160,949

242,294

 

45%

89,751

154,827

219,903

5%

18,379

99,723

181,068

 

50%

34,648

99,723

164,799

0%

-42,847

38,497

119,842

 

55%

-20,456

44,620

109,696


 

4. 2004 Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model (based on pre-election and exit polls)

 

A pre-election forecast and post-election simulation consisting of 200 election trials. Popular and electoral vote win probabilities are calculated. 

The pre-election model adjusts state and national polls by allocating undecided voters.  The post-election model uses unadjusted state exit polls.

 

 

                                                                                                                        MONTE CARLO ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Win Probabilities

 

TEV (Theoretical EV) = ∑ state win prob (i) * EV (i), i=1,51

 

 

 

 

Simulation Input

 

 

 

 

Popular Vote:

Probability

EV

TEV

Max

Min

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Method:

WPE/IMS

 

 

 

Simulation

99.95%

335

337

359

315

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided-Kerry

75%

 

 

 

Pre-elect

95.53%

317

334

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exit Poll Cluster       30%

 

 

 

Exit

 

99.98%

342

336

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electoral Vote

100.00%

Exit poll simulation

200

wins in 200 trials

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre

Exit

Pre-elect

Exit

 

Kerry Simulation

Recorded Vote

Exceed MoE

Rec Margin Diff

Diff

Kerry Win Probability

 

 

MoE

MoE

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Pre-

Exit

Kerry

Bush

Pre

Exit

Pre

Exit

Exit-Pre

Simulation

Pre

Exit

 

Total

3.92%

3.23%

47.7%

47.0%

52.0%

47.0%

51.2%

52.3%

48.28%

50.73%

20

23

6.1

8.2

2.08

99.95%

95.53%

99.98%

 

EV

 

 

302

236

338

200

317

342

252

286

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AL

9

3.91

4.90

39

57

41.8

57.5

40.4

41.3

36.86

62.49

-

-

7.1

8.8

1.7

0%

0%

0%

AK

3

3.88

4.13

30

57

40.2

56.4

35.7

39.4

35.61

61.22

-

-

0.1

7.6

7.5

0%

0%

0%

AR

6

3.96

2.95

45

50

44.5

54.7

46.8

45.3

44.55

54.30

-

-

4.5

1.5

-3.0

0%

1%

0%

AZ

10

3.96

3.39

46

48

45.2

53.7

48.9

43.7

44.40

54.87

AZ

-

9.1

-1.3

-10.4

0%

22%

0%

CA

55

3.93

3.39

49

42

60.1

38.6

54.6

60.8

54.43

44.46

-

CA

0.4

12.8

12.4

100%

100%

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

9

3.96

2.39

47

48

50.1

48.6

54.8

49.9

47.08

51.76

CO

CO

15.5

5.6

-9.9

65%

100%

77%

CT

7

3.93

4.25

52

42

62.3

35.9

54.8

62.1

54.31

43.95

-

CT

1.0

15.7

14.7

100%

100%

100%

DE

3

3.91

4.52

45

38

61.3

37.8

53.8

60.9

53.36

45.77

-

DE

0.9

15.0

14.2

100%

100%

100%

DC

3

2.73

2.50

78

11

90.6

7.9

83.9

91.9

89.43

9.37

DC

 

-11.0

5.0

16.0

100%

100%

100%

FL

27

3.96

2.54

50

47

51.0

48.2

52.5

52.9

47.13

52.14

FL

FL

10.8

11.5

0.7

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GA

15

3.95

3.22

42

52

42.0

57.3

48.7

41.7

41.41

58.03

GA

-

14.6

0.5

-14.1

0%

16%

0%

HI

4

3.95

5.69

49

45

58.1

41.2

54.1

58.4

54.01

45.26

-

-

0.26

8.7

8.5

100%

100%

100%

ID

4

3.85

5.08

30

59

32.3

66.4

38.7

34.0

30.26

68.39

ID

-

16.8

7.4

-9.5

0%

0%

0%

IL

21

3.92

2.87

54

42

56.6

42.7

59.6

55.9

54.82

44.48

IL

-

9.5

2.1

-7.5

100%

100%

100%

IN

11

3.90

4.95

39

58

40.4

58.8

34.2

35.0

39.26

59.95

IN

-

-10.1

-8.5

1.5

0%

0%

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

7

3.94

2.55

50

44

50.7

48.4

54.2

50.5

49.29

49.96

IA

-

9.9

2.4

-7.5

83%

100%

91%

KS

6

3.87

4.49

37

60

37.2

61.5

39.7

38.3

36.62

62.00

-

-

6.1

3.3

-2.7

0%

0%

0%

KY

8

3.92

4.43

39

56

39.9

59.4

45.3

38.7

39.69

59.55

KY

-

11.2

-2.0

-13.2

0%

0%

0%

LA

9

3.96

3.09

40

48

43.5

55.4

47.1

43.5

42.31

56.85

LA

-

9.5

2.3

-7.2

0%

1%

0%

ME

4

3.91

2.86

50

39

55.6

42.6

56.5

55.5

53.57

44.58

-

-

5.9

3.8

-2.1

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MD

10

3.93

3.99

54

43

59.6

39.3

54.7

61.8

55.97

42.98

-

MD

-2.5

11.6

14.2

100%

100%

100%

MA

12

3.60

4.03

64

27

65.8

32.9

72.8

68.3

62.09

36.87

MA

MA

21.4

12.3

-9.0

100%

100%

100%

MI

17

3.95

2.57

52

45

54.4

44.6

52.9

54.4

51.25

47.83

-

MI

3.2

6.4

3.2

100%

100%

100%

MN

10

3.94

2.72

52

44

55.7

43.0

52.1

54.1

51.20

47.71

-

MN

1.9

5.9

4.0

100%

100%

100%

MS

6

3.95

4.43

42

51

49.4

49.8

45.2

52.8

40.22

59.10

MS

MS

9.9

25.2

15.3

99%

0%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

11

3.96

2.74

44

49

49.0

50.4

49.2

49.9

46.10

53.30

-

MO

6.1

7.5

1.4

64%

29%

59%

MT

3

3.90

4.10

36

57

37.3

60.4

40.1

40.9

38.57

59.07

-

-

3.1

4.6

1.5

0%

0%

0%

NE

5

3.83

2.77

32

61

37.0

61.5

36.4

38.2

32.72

65.98

-

NE

7.4

10.9

3.4

0%

0%

0%

NV

5

3.96

4.72

49

49

52.8

45.5

49.7

51.9

48.09

50.70

-

-

3.2

7.7

4.5

98%

63%

98%

NH

4

3.96

2.95

47

47

57.2

41.9

51.2

57.4

50.35

48.98

-

NH

1.7

14.1

12.4

100%

94%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NJ

15

3.93

3.24

50

42

57.5

41.7

55.7

56.9

52.95

46.26

-

NJ

5.5

7.9

2.4

100%

100%

100%

NM

5

3.96

2.89

49

49

53.0

45.8

47.7

53.6

49.05

49.84

-

NM

-2.7

9.2

11.9

100%

4%

100%

NY

31

3.88

3.21

57

39

64.5

34.0

60.8

66.4

58.39

40.10

-

NY

4.8

16

11.1

100%

100%

100%

NC

15

3.96

2.73

47

50

49.5

50.1

48.2

48.0

43.59

56.02

NC

NC

9.1

8.8

-0.3

4%

5%

0%

ND

3

3.92

4.72

35

55

34.6

63.7

40.7

33.4

35.50

62.86

ND

-

10.4

-4.3

-14.7

0%

0%

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OH

20

3.96

2.87

50

47

54.0

45.5

52

54.6

48.71

50.82

-

OH

6.7

11.8

5.1

100%

99%

100%

OK

7

3.81

3.09

28

61

33.8

66.2

35.6

34.5

34.43

65.57

-

-

2.4

0.1

-2.3

0%

0%

0%

OR

7

3.94

3.90

50

44

52.3

46.3

53.3

54.4

51.60

47.42

-

-

3.4

5.6

2.2

100%

100%

100%

PA

21

3.95

2.89

50

45

55.1

44.2

49.5

54.0

50.96

48.46

-

PA

-2.9

6.1

9.0

100%

42%

100%

RI

4

3.84

4.29

56

36

62.1

36.0

62.1

62.0

59.57

38.77

-

-

5.1

5.0

-0.1

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SC

8

3.93

3.04

42

55

45.8

53.1

44.1

46.4

40.96

58.06

-

SC

6.2

10.9

4.6

1%

0%

0%

SD

3

3.95

3.19

42

52

35.9

62.5

43.9

36.1

38.44

59.91

SD

-

10.9

-4.7

-15.6

0%

0%

0%

TN

11

3.96

2.98

47

50

43.2

56.1

49.0

43.2

42.53

56.80

TN

-

12.9

1.3

-11.6

0%

24%

0%

TX

34

3.88

3.00

37

59

42.0

57.3

41.2

43.7

38.23

61.09

-

TX

5.9

11.0

5.1

0%

0%

0%

UT

5

3.60

4.13

24

69

28.1

69.4

25.7

29.9

26.03

71.64

-

-

-0.7

7.7

8.4

0%

0%

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VT

3

3.91

4.63

53

40

66.5

31.2

57.6

66.5

59.22

38.98

-

VT

-3.3

14.6

17.9

100%

100%

100%

VA

13

3.96

3.37

47

51

49.8

49.3

52.3

48.4

45.56

53.77

VA

-

13.4

5.6

-7.8

21%

100%

6%

WA

11

3.94

2.76

52

44

56.8

41.6

51.7

56.6

52.86

45.67

-

WA

-2.4

7.4

9.8

100%

99%

100%

WV

5

3.96

3.06

45

49

40.2

59.0

50.7

42.4

43.20

56.06

WV

-

15.0

-1.6

-16.6

0%

85%

0%

WI

10

3.94

2.70

51

44

52.1

46.9

55.2

51.7

49.76

49.38

WI

-

10.8

3.9

-6.9

99%

100%

100%

WY

3

3.74

4.55

29

65

32.6

65.4

31.4

31.2

29.13

69.00

-

-

4.5

4.1

-0.4

0%

0%

0%