True Vote Models
March 26, 2012
The following easy-to-use election databases and True
Vote models are Google Docs:
Unadjusted
1988-2008 Presidential State and National Exit Polls
2004-2008
County Presidential True Vote Model
2000-2004
County Presidential True Vote Model
1. 1988-2008
State and National Presidential True Vote Model
The TVM is a forensic tool to determine the
likelihood of vote miscounting in state and national elections.
Calculates the True Vote
based on total votes cast, voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.
Returning voters are
calculated using the previous 1) recorded vote, 2) votes cast, 3) unadjusted
exit poll and 4) True Vote.
The built-in sensitivity analysis calculates vote shares and margins over a range of scenarios.
Shares of new and returning voters required to match
the recorded vote, exit poll or an input vote share are calculated
automatically.
2004
National
True Vote Final
National Exit Poll (recorded vote)
|
2000 |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
DNV |
18% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
|
17% |
54% |
44% |
2% |
|
Gore |
41.5% |
91% |
8% |
1% |
|
37% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
|
Bush |
37.7% |
10% |
90% |
0% |
|
43% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
|
Other |
3% |
64% |
17% |
19% |
|
3% |
64% |
14% |
22% |
|
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|
|
Total |
100.0% |
53.6% |
45.4% |
1.0% |
|
100% |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
|
(000) |
125,736 |
67,394 |
57,084 |
1,257 |
|
122,295 |
59,032 |
62,040 |
1,223 |
Ohio 2004
True Vote Analysis
Returning
voters based on the 2000 TRUE VOTE
|
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|
Estimated |
|
|
Recorded
Vote (Final Exit Poll) |
||
|
2000 |
Voted |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Turnout |
|
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
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|
New/DNV |
995 |
18.1% |
59.5% |
38.5% |
2.0% |
- |
|
18.1% |
55.6% |
43.6% |
0.7% |
|
Gore |
2,138 |
39.0% |
91.0% |
8.0% |
1.0% |
98.0% |
|
39.0% |
85.0% |
14.6% |
0.4% |
|
Bush |
2,192 |
40.0% |
10.0% |
90.0% |
0.0% |
98.0% |
|
40.0% |
9.3% |
90.7% |
0.0% |
|
Othe |
160 |
2.9% |
64.0% |
17.0% |
19.0% |
98.0% |
|
2.9% |
59.8% |
33.2% |
7.0% |
|
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|
True
Vote |
5.485 |
100.0% |
52.1% |
46.6% |
1.3% |
|
|
100.0% |
48.7% |
50.8% |
0.5% |
|
Recorded |
- |
100.0% |
48.7% |
50.8% |
0.5% |
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Electoral
Vote |
|
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|
|
Voted |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Margin |
Pct |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
|
|
|
True
Vote |
5,485 |
2,860 |
2,554 |
72 |
306 |
5.6% |
|
364 |
174 |
True
Vote |
|
|
Recorded |
5,628 |
2,741 |
2,860 |
27 |
-119 |
-2.1% |
|
251 |
286 |
Recorded
Vote |
|
|
Discrepancy |
-143 |
119 |
-306 |
45 |
425 |
7.7% |
|
113 |
-112 |
|
|
Share Kerry share of New
voters (DNV) Kerry share of returning Gore voters
of Bush 55.5% 57.5% 59.5% 61.5% 63.5% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Kerry Vote Share Kerry
Vote Share
12% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
11% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 51.8% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3%
10% 51.4% 51.8% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%
9% 51.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 51.0% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5%
8% 50.6% 51.0% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
Margin Margin
12% 314 354 394 434 473 308 351 394 437 479
11% 270 310 350 390 430 265 307 350 393 436
10% 227 266 306 346 386 221 263 306 349 392
9% 183 223 262 302 342 177 220 262 305 348
8% 139 179 219 258 298 133 176 219 261 304
MoE: 3.0% Kerry Popular Vote Win
Probability
12% 97.1% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8% 96.9% 98.3% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
11% 94.9% 96.9% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5% 94.5% 96.8% 98.3% 99.1% 99.6%
10% 91.4% 94.6% 96.8% 98.2% 99.0% 90.9% 94.4% 96.8% 98.2% 99.1%
9% 86.5% 91.0% 94.3% 96.6% 98.0% 85.7% 90.7% 94.3% 96.7% 98.2%
8% 79.9% 86.0% 90.6% 94.1% 96.4% 78.9% 85.6% 90.6% 94.3% 96.7%
2. 1968-2008
Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model
Calculates the True Vote
based on total votes cast, voter mortality and previous election voter turnout.
Returning voters are
calculated using the previous election 1) recorded vote, 2) votes cast, 3)
unadjusted exit poll and 4) True Vote.
For 1968-1984, vote shares
required to match the recorded vote are used; for 1988-2008, National Exit Poll
shares.
2008
|
Method:
True Vote |
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|
2004 |
True |
Votes |
Votes |
95% |
97% |
Total |
NEP
Vote Shares |
|
Total
Votes Cast |
|
|
||
|
Voted |
Share |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Turnout |
Turnout |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
DNV |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
16.4 |
12.4% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
11.7 |
4.4 |
0.3 |
|
Kerry |
53.5% |
67.3 |
59 |
63.9 |
62 |
62 |
46.9% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
55.2 |
5.6 |
1.2 |
|
Bush |
45.3% |
56.7 |
62 |
53.8 |
52.2 |
52.2 |
39.5% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
8.9 |
42.8 |
0.5 |
|
Other |
1.2% |
1.8 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.3% |
72% |
26% |
2% |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0 |
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
Total |
100% |
125.7 |
122.3 |
119.4 |
115.9 |
132.3 |
100% |
58.0% |
40.3% |
1.6% |
76.9 |
53.3 |
2.1 |
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
True Vote
Dem 45.3% 39.3% 53.3% 42.1% 42.5% 50.2% 50.4% 52.6% 50.8% 53.5% 58.0% 48.9%
Rep 41.7% 57.4% 45.0% 49.6% 56.9% 48.3% 31.0% 37.1% 46.5% 45.3% 40.3% 45.4%
Other 13.0% 3.3% 1.7% 8.3% 0.6% 1.5% 18.6% 10.3% 2.7% 1.2% 1.7% 5.7%
Margin 3.6% -18.1% 8.3% -7.5% -14.5% 1.9% 19.4% 15.5% 4.3% 8.2% 17.7% 3.5%
Recorded
Dem 42.9% 36.2% 50.1% 41.0% 40.6% 45.6% 43.0% 49.2% 48.4% 48.3% 52.9% 45.3%
Rep 43.6% 60.7% 48.0% 50.7% 58.8% 53.4% 37.4% 40.7% 47.9% 50.7% 45.6% 48.9%
Other 13.6% 3.1% 1.9% 8.3% 0.7% 1.0% 19.5% 10.1% 3.8% 1.0% 1.5% 5.9%
Margin -0.7% -24.4% 2.1% -9.7% -18.2% -7.7% 5.6% 8.5% 0.5% -2.5% 7.3% -3.6%
3. Wisconsin
True Vote Model: 2010 Senate, Governor,
2011 Supreme Court, Recalls
The model uses individual county vote data.
The nine recall elections are analyzed by district
with Unit/Ward data provided for the four recalls won by the Republicans.
Analysis of the five recall exit polls is included.
|
2008 |
|
|
97% |
|
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
J Klo |
Prosser |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama |
1,677,211 |
56.2% |
1,626,895 |
50% |
813,447 |
54.3% |
90% |
10% |
|
McCain |
1,262,393 |
42.3% |
1,224,521 |
50% |
612,261 |
40.8% |
5% |
95% |
|
Other |
43,813 |
1.5% |
42,499 |
50% |
21,249 |
1.4% |
50% |
50% |
|
DNV |
- |
|
- |
- |
51,923 |
3.5% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
2,983,417 |
100% |
2,893,914 |
50% |
1,498,880 |
Share |
53.3% |
46.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Votes |
799,302 |
699,578 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
50.24% |
|
Margin |
99,723 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
Share |
49.7% |
50.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Votes |
745,007 |
752,323 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin |
-7,316 |
|
Voter
Turnout J
Klo share of
Obama
McCain Obama McCain
50.0% 50.0% 90.0% 5.0%
Kloppenburg share of Obama Obama
Turnout
|
JKlo % |
85% |
90% |
95% |
|
McCain |
45% |
50% |
55% |
|
McCain |
|
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|
|
Turnout |
|
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|
J Klo % |
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|
J Klo % |
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|
10% |
52.7 |
55.4 |
58.1 |
|
45% |
53.0 |
55.2 |
57.3 |
|
5% |
50.6 |
53.3 |
56.0 |
|
50% |
51.2 |
53.3 |
55.5 |
|
0% |
48.6 |
51.3 |
54.0 |
|
55% |
49.3 |
51.5 |
53.7 |
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Margin |
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|
Margin |
|
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|
|
10% |
79,605 |
160,949 |
242,294 |
|
45% |
89,751 |
154,827 |
219,903 |
|
5% |
18,379 |
99,723 |
181,068 |
|
50% |
34,648 |
99,723 |
164,799 |
|
0% |
-42,847 |
38,497 |
119,842 |
|
55% |
-20,456 |
44,620 |
109,696 |
4. 2012
Presidential True Vote Projection Model
Calculates vote shares over a range of 2008 returning
voter turnout rates and corresponding vote shares.
The 2012 Election Model (EM) will use
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2008 Basis: Obama’s True 58% share |
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He wins by 6.4 million votes. |
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Input Data Section |
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2008 |
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95% |
2012 |
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|
Voted for |
True |
Rec’d |
Input |
Voted |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
Repub |
|
Obama 2008 Vote Share |
58% |
|
Obama |
58.0% |
52.9% |
58.0% |
76,159 |
72,351 |
90% |
65,116 |
48.2% |
85% |
15% |
|
|
Obama Turnout |
90% |
|
McCain |
40.5% |
45.6% |
40.5% |
53,180 |
50,521 |
97% |
49,005 |
36.3% |
10% |
90% |
|
|
McCain Turnout |
97% |
|
Other |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1,970 |
1,871 |
97% |
1,815 |
1.3% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
Other Turnout |
97% |
|
DNV (new) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
19,064 |
14.1% |
50% |
50% |
|
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Obama share of returning: |
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||
|
Obama voters |
85% |
|
Total |
131,308 |
100% |
100% |
131,308 |
124,743 |
92.9% |
135,000 |
100.0% |
52.4% |
47.6% |
|
|
McCain voters |
10% |
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|
Votes |
70,688 |
64,312 |
|
|
Other voters |
50% |
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|
Margin |
6,377 |
|
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|
New (DNV) voters |
50% |
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Mortality (2008-2012) |
5.0% |
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Sensitivity Analysis |
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Table 1 |
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Table 2 |
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Obama share of returning 2008
voters |
|
Obama & McCain voter turnout in
2012 |
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Obama% |
Obama share of Obama |
|
McCain |
Obama Turnout |
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McCain |
80% |
85% |
90% |
|
Turnout |
85% |
90% |
95% |
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Obama Share |
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Obama Share |
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15% |
51.8% |
54.2% |
56.6% |
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92% |
52.2% |
53.1% |
54.0% |
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10% |
49.9% |
52.4% |
54.8% |
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97% |
51.4% |
52.4% |
53.3% |
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5% |
48.1% |
50.6% |
53.0% |
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100% |
51.0% |
51.9% |
52.9% |
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Margin |
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Margin |
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15% |
4,766 |
11,277 |
17,789 |
|
92% |
5,865 |
8,398 |
10,930 |
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10% |
-135 |
6,377 |
12,888 |
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97% |
3,845 |
6,377 |
8,909 |
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5% |
-5,035 |
1,476 |
7,988 |
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100% |
2,632 |
5,164 |
7,697 |
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2008 Basis: Obama’s recorded 52.9%
share |
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He loses by 2.6 million votes. |
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2008 |
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95% |
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2012 |
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Voted for |
True |
Rec’d |
Input |
Voted |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
Repub |
|
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|
|
|
Obama |
58.0% |
52.9% |
52.9% |
69,462 |
65,989 |
90% |
59,390 |
44.0% |
85% |
15% |
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McCain |
40.5% |
45.6% |
45.6% |
59,876 |
56,883 |
97% |
55,176 |
40.9% |
10% |
90% |
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Other |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1,970 |
1,871 |
97% |
1,815 |
1.3% |
50% |
50% |
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DNV (new) |
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18,619 |
13.8% |
50% |
50% |
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131,308 |
100% |
100% |
131,308 |
124,743 |
93.3% |
135,000 |
100.0% |
49.1% |
51.0% |
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Votes |
66,216 |
68,784 |
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Margin |
-2,568 |
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Table
3 |
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Table
4 |
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Obama shares of returning 2008 voters |
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Obama & McCain
voter turnout |
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(assume base case voter turnout) |
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(assume base case vote shares) |
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Share of |
Share of Obama |
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McCain |
Obama Turnout |
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McCain |
83% |
85% |
87% |
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Turnout |
88% |
90% |
92% |
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Obama Share |
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Obama Share |
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12% |
49.00% |
49.9% |
50.7% |
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95% |
49.1% |
49.4% |
49.7% |
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10% |
48.2% |
49.1% |
49.9% |
|
97% |
48.7% |
49.1% |
49.4% |
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8% |
47.4% |
48.3% |
49.1% |
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99% |
48.4% |
48.7% |
49.1% |
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|
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|
Obama Margin |
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|
Obama Margin |
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||
|
|
|
|
|
12% |
-2,737 |
-361 |
2,015 |
|
95% |
-2,582 |
-1,658 |
-734 |
|
|
|
|
|
10% |
-4,944 |
-2,568 |
-192 |
|
97% |
-3,492 |
-2,568 |
-1,644 |
|
|
|
|
|
8% |
-7,151 |
-4,775 |
-2,399 |
|
99% |
-4,402 |
-3,478 |
-2,554 |
5. 2004
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model (based on pre-election and exit
polls)
Pre-election forecast and post-election simulation
consisting of 200 election trials. Popular and electoral vote win
probabilities are calculated.
The pre-election model adjusts state and national
polls by allocating undecided voters.
The post-election model uses unadjusted state exit polls.
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Kerry Win Probabilities |
|
TEV (Theoretical EV) = ∑
state win prob (i) * EV (i), i=1,51 |
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|||||||
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Simulation Input |
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|
Popular Vote: |
Probability |
EV |
TEV |
Max |
Min |
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|
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||
|
|
Method: |
WPE/IMS |
|
|
|
Simulation |
99.95% |
335 |
337 |
359 |
315 |
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|
|
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||
|
|
Undecided-Kerry |
75% |
|
|
|
Pre-elect |
95.53% |
317 |
334 |
|
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|
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||
|
|
Exit Poll Cluster 30% |
|
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|
Exit |
|
99.98% |
342 |
336 |
|
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|
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|
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||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Electoral Vote |
100.00% |
Exit poll simulation |
200 |
wins in 200 trials |
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||||
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|
Pre |
Exit |
Pre-elect |
Exit |
|
Kerry Simulation |
Recorded Vote |
Exceed MoE |
Rec Margin Diff |
Diff |
Kerry Win Probability |
|||||||
|
|
|
MoE |
MoE |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Pre- |
Exit |
Kerry |
Bush |
Pre |
Exit |
Pre |
Exit |
Exit-Pre |
Simulation |
Pre |
Exit |
|
|
Total |
3.92% |
3.23% |
47.7% |
47.0% |
52.0% |
47.0% |
51.2% |
52.3% |
48.28% |
50.73% |
20 |
23 |
6.1 |
8.2 |
2.08 |
99.95% |
95.53% |
99.98% |
|
|
EV |
|
|
302 |
236 |
338 |
200 |
317 |
342 |
252 |
286 |
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
3.91 |
4.90 |
39 |
57 |
41.8 |
57.5 |
40.4 |
41.3 |
36.86 |
62.49 |
- |
- |
7.1 |
8.8 |
1.7 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
AK |
3 |
3.88 |
4.13 |
30 |
57 |
40.2 |
56.4 |
35.7 |
39.4 |
35.61 |
61.22 |
- |
- |
0.1 |
7.6 |
7.5 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
AR |
6 |
3.96 |
2.95 |
45 |
50 |
44.5 |
54.7 |
46.8 |
45.3 |
44.55 |
54.30 |
- |
- |
4.5 |
1.5 |
-3.0 |
0% |
1% |
0% |
|
AZ |
10 |
3.96 |
3.39 |
46 |
48 |
45.2 |
53.7 |
48.9 |
43.7 |
44.40 |
54.87 |
AZ |
- |
9.1 |
-1.3 |
-10.4 |
0% |
22% |
0% |
|
CA |
55 |
3.93 |
3.39 |
49 |
42 |
60.1 |
38.6 |
54.6 |
60.8 |
54.43 |
44.46 |
- |
CA |
0.4 |
12.8 |
12.4 |
100% |
100% |
100.00% |
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
9 |
3.96 |
2.39 |
47 |
48 |
50.1 |
48.6 |
54.8 |
49.9 |
47.08 |
51.76 |
CO |
CO |
15.5 |
5.6 |
-9.9 |
65% |
100% |
77% |
|
CT |
7 |
3.93 |
4.25 |
52 |
42 |
62.3 |
35.9 |
54.8 |
62.1 |
54.31 |
43.95 |
- |
CT |
1.0 |
15.7 |
14.7 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
DE |
3 |
3.91 |
4.52 |
45 |
38 |
61.3 |
37.8 |
53.8 |
60.9 |
53.36 |
45.77 |
- |
DE |
0.9 |
15.0 |
14.2 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
DC |
3 |
2.73 |
2.50 |
78 |
11 |
90.6 |
7.9 |
83.9 |
91.9 |
89.43 |
9.37 |
DC |
|
-11.0 |
5.0 |
16.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
FL |
27 |
3.96 |
2.54 |
50 |
47 |
51.0 |
48.2 |
52.5 |
52.9 |
47.13 |
52.14 |
FL |
FL |
10.8 |
11.5 |
0.7 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
15 |
3.95 |
3.22 |
42 |
52 |
42.0 |
57.3 |
48.7 |
41.7 |
41.41 |
58.03 |
GA |
- |
14.6 |
0.5 |
-14.1 |
0% |
16% |
0% |
|
HI |
4 |
3.95 |
5.69 |
49 |
45 |
58.1 |
41.2 |
54.1 |
58.4 |
54.01 |
45.26 |
- |
- |
0.26 |
8.7 |
8.5 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
ID |
4 |
3.85 |
5.08 |
30 |
59 |
32.3 |
66.4 |
38.7 |
34.0 |
30.26 |
68.39 |
ID |
- |
16.8 |
7.4 |
-9.5 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
IL |
21 |
3.92 |
2.87 |
54 |
42 |
56.6 |
42.7 |
59.6 |
55.9 |
54.82 |
44.48 |
IL |
- |
9.5 |
2.1 |
-7.5 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
IN |
11 |
3.90 |
4.95 |
39 |
58 |
40.4 |
58.8 |
34.2 |
35.0 |
39.26 |
59.95 |
IN |
- |
-10.1 |
-8.5 |
1.5 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
7 |
3.94 |
2.55 |
50 |
44 |
50.7 |
48.4 |
54.2 |
50.5 |
49.29 |
49.96 |
IA |
- |
9.9 |
2.4 |
-7.5 |
83% |
100% |
91% |
|
KS |
6 |
3.87 |
4.49 |
37 |
60 |
37.2 |
61.5 |
39.7 |
38.3 |
36.62 |
62.00 |
- |
- |
6.1 |
3.3 |
-2.7 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
KY |
8 |
3.92 |
4.43 |
39 |
56 |
39.9 |
59.4 |
45.3 |
38.7 |
39.69 |
59.55 |
KY |
- |
11.2 |
-2.0 |
-13.2 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
LA |
9 |
3.96 |
3.09 |
40 |
48 |
43.5 |
55.4 |
47.1 |
43.5 |
42.31 |
56.85 |
LA |
- |
9.5 |
2.3 |
-7.2 |
0% |
1% |
0% |
|
ME |
4 |
3.91 |
2.86 |
50 |
39 |
55.6 |
42.6 |
56.5 |
55.5 |
53.57 |
44.58 |
- |
- |
5.9 |
3.8 |
-2.1 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
10 |
3.93 |
3.99 |
54 |
43 |
59.6 |
39.3 |
54.7 |
61.8 |
55.97 |
42.98 |
- |
MD |
-2.5 |
11.6 |
14.2 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
MA |
12 |
3.60 |
4.03 |
64 |
27 |
65.8 |
32.9 |
72.8 |
68.3 |
62.09 |
36.87 |
MA |
MA |
21.4 |
12.3 |
-9.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
MI |
17 |
3.95 |
2.57 |
52 |
45 |
54.4 |
44.6 |
52.9 |
54.4 |
51.25 |
47.83 |
- |
MI |
3.2 |
6.4 |
3.2 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
MN |
10 |
3.94 |
2.72 |
52 |
44 |
55.7 |
43.0 |
52.1 |
54.1 |
51.20 |
47.71 |
- |
MN |
1.9 |
5.9 |
4.0 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
MS |
6 |
3.95 |
4.43 |
42 |
51 |
49.4 |
49.8 |
45.2 |
52.8 |
40.22 |
59.10 |
MS |
MS |
9.9 |
25.2 |
15.3 |
99% |
0% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
11 |
3.96 |
2.74 |
44 |
49 |
49.0 |
50.4 |
49.2 |
49.9 |
46.10 |
53.30 |
- |
MO |
6.1 |
7.5 |
1.4 |
64% |
29% |
59% |
|
MT |
3 |
3.90 |
4.10 |
36 |
57 |
37.3 |
60.4 |
40.1 |
40.9 |
38.57 |
59.07 |
- |
- |
3.1 |
4.6 |
1.5 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
NE |
5 |
3.83 |
2.77 |
32 |
61 |
37.0 |
61.5 |
36.4 |
38.2 |
32.72 |
65.98 |
- |
NE |
7.4 |
10.9 |
3.4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
NV |
5 |
3.96 |
4.72 |
49 |
49 |
52.8 |
45.5 |
49.7 |
51.9 |
48.09 |
50.70 |
- |
- |
3.2 |
7.7 |
4.5 |
98% |
63% |
98% |
|
NH |
4 |
3.96 |
2.95 |
47 |
47 |
57.2 |
41.9 |
51.2 |
57.4 |
50.35 |
48.98 |
- |
NH |
1.7 |
14.1 |
12.4 |
100% |
94% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
15 |
3.93 |
3.24 |
50 |
42 |
57.5 |
41.7 |
55.7 |
56.9 |
52.95 |
46.26 |
- |
NJ |
5.5 |
7.9 |
2.4 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
NM |
5 |
3.96 |
2.89 |
49 |
49 |
53.0 |
45.8 |
47.7 |
53.6 |
49.05 |
49.84 |
- |
NM |
-2.7 |
9.2 |
11.9 |
100% |
4% |
100% |
|
NY |
31 |
3.88 |
3.21 |
57 |
39 |
64.5 |
34.0 |
60.8 |
66.4 |
58.39 |
40.10 |
- |
NY |
4.8 |
16 |
11.1 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
NC |
15 |
3.96 |
2.73 |
47 |
50 |
49.5 |
50.1 |
48.2 |
48.0 |
43.59 |
56.02 |
NC |
NC |
9.1 |
8.8 |
-0.3 |
4% |
5% |
0% |
|
ND |
3 |
3.92 |
4.72 |
35 |
55 |
34.6 |
63.7 |
40.7 |
33.4 |
35.50 |
62.86 |
ND |
- |
10.4 |
-4.3 |
-14.7 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
20 |
3.96 |
2.87 |
50 |
47 |
54.0 |
45.5 |
52 |
54.6 |
48.71 |
50.82 |
- |
OH |
6.7 |
11.8 |
5.1 |
100% |
99% |
100% |
|
OK |
7 |
3.81 |
3.09 |
28 |
61 |
33.8 |
66.2 |
35.6 |
34.5 |
34.43 |
65.57 |
- |
- |
2.4 |
0.1 |
-2.3 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
OR |
7 |
3.94 |
3.90 |
50 |
44 |
52.3 |
46.3 |
53.3 |
54.4 |
51.60 |
47.42 |
- |
- |
3.4 |
5.6 |
2.2 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
PA |
21 |
3.95 |
2.89 |
50 |
45 |
55.1 |
44.2 |
49.5 |
54.0 |
50.96 |
48.46 |
- |
PA |
-2.9 |
6.1 |
9.0 |
100% |
42% |
100% |
|
RI |
4 |
3.84 |
4.29 |
56 |
36 |
62.1 |
36.0 |
62.1 |
62.0 |
59.57 |
38.77 |
- |
- |
5.1 |
5.0 |
-0.1 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
8 |
3.93 |
3.04 |
42 |
55 |
45.8 |
53.1 |
44.1 |
46.4 |
40.96 |
58.06 |
- |
SC |
6.2 |
10.9 |
4.6 |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
SD |
3 |
3.95 |
3.19 |
42 |
52 |
35.9 |
62.5 |
43.9 |
36.1 |
38.44 |
59.91 |
SD |
- |
10.9 |
-4.7 |
-15.6 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
TN |
11 |
3.96 |
2.98 |
47 |
50 |
43.2 |
56.1 |
49.0 |
43.2 |
42.53 |
56.80 |
TN |
- |
12.9 |
1.3 |
-11.6 |
0% |
24% |
0% |
|
TX |
34 |
3.88 |
3.00 |
37 |
59 |
42.0 |
57.3 |
41.2 |
43.7 |
38.23 |
61.09 |
- |
TX |
5.9 |
11.0 |
5.1 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
UT |
5 |
3.60 |
4.13 |
24 |
69 |
28.1 |
69.4 |
25.7 |
29.9 |
26.03 |
71.64 |
- |
- |
-0.7 |
7.7 |
8.4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
3 |
3.91 |
4.63 |
53 |
40 |
66.5 |
31.2 |
57.6 |
66.5 |
59.22 |
38.98 |
- |
VT |
-3.3 |
14.6 |
17.9 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
VA |
13 |
3.96 |
3.37 |
47 |
51 |
49.8 |
49.3 |
52.3 |
48.4 |
45.56 |
53.77 |
VA |
- |
13.4 |
5.6 |
-7.8 |
21% |
100% |
6% |
|
WA |
11 |
3.94 |
2.76 |
52 |
44 |
56.8 |
41.6 |
51.7 |
56.6 |
52.86 |
45.67 |
- |
WA |
-2.4 |
7.4 |
9.8 |
100% |
99% |
100% |
|
WV |
5 |
3.96 |
3.06 |
45 |
49 |
40.2 |
59.0 |
50.7 |
42.4 |
43.20 |
56.06 |
WV |
- |
15.0 |
-1.6 |
-16.6 |
0% |
85% |
0% |
|
WI |
10 |
3.94 |
2.70 |
51 |
44 |
52.1 |
46.9 |
55.2 |
51.7 |
49.76 |
49.38 |
WI |
- |
10.8 |
3.9 |
-6.9 |
99% |
100% |
100% |
|
WY |
3 |
3.74 |
4.55 |
29 |
65 |
32.6 |
65.4 |
31.4 |
31.2 |
29.13 |
69.00 |
- |
- |
4.5 |
4.1 |
-0.4 |
0% |
0% |
0% |