Uncounted and Switched Votes

 
TruthIsAll

 

The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the 2004 U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. According to the Census Bureau: “The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the “official” turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here.” The published Census survey margin of error is 0.30%.

 

Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure.  In 13 states, the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by a total of 730,000 votes.  The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k).  Apparently more votes were padded than were suppressed in the 13 states. Based on the Census 3.4m net estimate, there is no way to calculate the actual mix of uncounted and padded votes. But according to investigative reporter Greg Palast, actual government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted. The votes were comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots.

 

Based on the 12:22am NEP vote shares with feasible weights, Kerry’s true vote was 66.1 million. Given his recorded 59.0m vote and the net uncounted votes, we can approximate the number of votes which were switched to Bush.  Assuming that Kerry won 2.6m of the 3.45m (75%) net uncounted votes, then approximately 4.5m (6.8%) votes must have been switched to Bush.  Assuming that the votes were switched uniformly and allocating uncounted votes to each state according to the population and racial mix, Kerry won 336 electoral votes, matching the 2004 Election Model forcast. The Monte Carlo simulation indicated that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (assuming that he captured 75% of the undecided vote).

 

 

Voted2k

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Kerry

Bush

Other

    Kerry

    Bush

   Other

DNV

Na

29.08

23.1%

57%

41%

2%

      16.58

     11.92

      0.58

Gore

95%

46.78

37.2%

91%

8%

1%

      42.57

       3.74

      0.47

Bush

95%

46.25

36.8%

10%

90%

0%

        4.63

     41.63

          -  

Other

95%

3.63

2.9%

64%

17%

19%

        2.32

       0.62

      0.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

96.66

125.74

100.0%

52.6%

46.1%

1.3%

      66.09

     57.91

      1.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

 

 

Kerry National Vote

 

Kerry share of

 

 

 

 

Gore voters

Share of New voters (DNV in 2000)

52.6%

53%

55%

57%

59%

61%

91%

51.6%

52.1%

52.6%

53.0%

53.5%

89%

50.9%

51.4%

51.8%

52.3%

52.7%

87%

50.2%

50.6%

51.1%

51.5%

52.0%

85%

49.4%

49.9%

50.3%

50.8%

51.3%

83%

48.7%

49.1%

49.6%

50.0%

50.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Margin (millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.19

53%

55%

57%

59%

61%

91%

5.9

7.0

8.2

9.3

10.5

89%

4.0

5.2

6.3

7.5

8.6

87%

2.1

3.3

4.4

5.6

6.8

85%

0.2

1.4

2.6

3.7

4.9

83%

(1.6)

(0.5)

0.7

1.9

3.0

 

 

Given:

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

122.29m votes recorded

3.45m votes uncounted

 

Assume:

2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry

0.87% annual mortality

95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

 

Calculate:

The approximate number of Kerry votes which were switched to Bush.

True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)   

 

S = 4.5 = T - R - U = 66.10 - 59.03 - 2.58

We have 4.5 million votes switched from Kerry to Bush       

 

Switched vote rate:

SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8%

 

True Vote Reconciliation                                                                                                             

 

       Recorded   Share    Uncounted (net)    Switched           True Vote       

Kerry    59.027   75%      2.584    61.611    4.488    6.79%    66.097   52.57%          

Bush     62.040   24%      0.827    62.867   -4.488   -7.69%    58.375   46.43%          

Other     1.228    1%      0.034     1.262    0.000    0.00%     1.262    1.01%          

 

Total    122.30   100%     3.445    125.74    0.000    0.00%    125.74   100.0%  

 

  

VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS

(Votes in thousands)

 

NET UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE

Kerry   75%:  2,582

Bush    24%:    826

Other    1%:     34

 

Total 100%:  3,443 (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)       

 

SWITCHED VOTES

4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were switched to Bush

 

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION

TrueVote 66,097 100.0%  

Unctd    -2,582 3.91%

Net      63,515 96.09%

Switch   -4,488 6.79%

Recorded 59,027 89.30%

 

 

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE

 

          True Vote        Electoral Vote

         Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush                                       

Actual   59027    62040     252      286                                        

Change    7070    -3662      97      -97                                        

True     66097    58378     336      202                               

VOTE     52.57%   46.43%                                             

 

 

BASE CASE SUMMARY

 

Switched votes: 6.8%

 

       Share     RECORDED          UNCOUNTED ADJUSTED                   SWITCHED   TRUE VOTE

Kerry    75%      59027    48.27%   2582      61609    49.0%    2.11%     4488     66097    52.57%

Bush     24%      62040    50.73     826      62866    50.0%    0.68%    -4488     58378    46.43%

Other     1%       1228     1.00      34       1262     1.0%    0.03%        0      1262     1.00%

Total    2.74%   122295    100.0    3442     125737   100.0%    2.81%        0    125737    100.0%

 

 


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I

Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)

(Kerry 75% share of uncounted votes)

 

           Recorded Share    Recorded  Vote    Kerry   Electoral Vote  

           Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Margin   Kerry    Bush    States which

Recorded   48.27%   50.73%   59027    62040    -3013    252      286     flipped to Bush

SVR       

6.8%       52.57%   46.43%   66097    58383    7714     336      202      CO FL IA MO NV NM OH     

6.5%       52.42%   46.58%   65906    58570    7336     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

6.0%       52.15%   46.84%   65575    58901    6675     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

5.0%       51.63%   47.37%   64914    59562    5353     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

 

4.0%       51.10%   47.90%   64253    60223    4031     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH

3.0%       50.58%   48.42%   63592    60883    2709     289      249      IA NV NM

2.0%       50.05%   48.95%   62931    61544    1387     289      249      IA NV NM

1.0%       49.52%   49.47%   62270    62205    65       264      274      IA NM   

0.0%       49.00%   50.00%   61609    62866    -1257    264      274      IA NM   

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote

  

                   

                              Uncounted Vote Share                                

           50%      55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR                           Kerry Electoral Vote                               

6.8%       325      325      325      325      325      336      336

6.5%       325      325      325      325      325      325      336

6.0%       325      325      325      325      325      325      325

5.0%       298      298      325      325      325      325      325

 

4.0%       289      289      289      289      289      325      325

3.0%       289      289      289      289      289      289      289

2.0%       264      284      284      284      289      289      289

1.0%       264      264      264      264      264      264      284

0.0%       252      252      252      252      259      264      264

                                                     

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share

 

                            Uncounted Vote Share                               

             50%     55%      60%       65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR                         Kerry Vote Share                           

6.8%       51.89%   52.03%   52.16%   52.30%   52.44%   52.57%   52.71%

6.5%       51.73%   51.87%   52.00%   52.14%   52.28%   52.42%   52.55%

6.0%       51.47%   51.60%   51.74%   51.88%   52.02%   52.15%   52.29%

5.0%       50.94%   51.08%   51.22%   51.35%   51.49%   51.63%   51.76%

 

4.0%       50.42%   50.55%   50.69%   50.83%   50.96%   51.10%   51.24%

3.0%       49.89%   50.03%   50.16%   50.30%   50.44%   50.58%   50.71%

2.0%       49.36%   49.50%   49.64%   49.78%   49.91%   50.05%   50.19%

1.0%       48.84%   48.98%   49.11%   49.25%   49.39%   49.52%   49.66%

0.0%       48.31%   48.45%   48.59%   48.72%   48.86%   49.00%   49.14%

                                                     

 

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin

                   

                          Uncounted Vote Share                                

           50%     55%      60%      65%      70%      75%      80%

SVR                       Kerry Margin (in thousands)                                 

6.8%       6011     6355     6699     7044     7388     7732     8077

6.5%       5614     5958     6303     6647     6991     7336     7680

6.0%       4953     5297     5642     5986     6330     6675     7019

5.0%       3631     3975     4320     4664     5008     5353     5697

 

4.0%       2309     2654     2998     3342     3686     4031     4375

3.0%       987      1332     1676     2020     2365     2709     3053

2.0%       -335     10  p;     354      698      1043     1387     1731

1.0%       -1657    -1312  &  -968     -624     -279 &nbbsp;   65       409

0.0%       -2979    -2634  &  -2290    -1946    -1601  &  -1257    -913

 

 

  
State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes

(in thousands)

                                             

         Recorded Vote                          Uncounted  Switched    TRUE Vote                                 

         Total    Kerry Bush     Kerry   Bush   Kerry Bush   Kerry   Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Margin   EVote

         122295   59027 62040    48.27% 50.73%  2582   826   4488    66097    58378    52.57%   46.43%   Change   Flip

                                                                                                                   

AL       1877     694   1176     37.0%  62.7%    42    14    47       784      1142     40.5%    59.1%    6.4%    

AK       307      111   191      36.2%  62.2%    7     2     8        125      186      39.7%    58.7%    6.3%    

AZ       1998     894   1104     44.7%  55.3%    31    10    61       986      1053     48.3%    51.6%    7.0%    

AR       1049     470   573      44.8%  54.6%    19    6     32       521      547      48.5%    50.9%    7.2%    

CA       12255    6745  5510     55.0%  45.0%    246   79    458      7449     5131     59.2%    40.8%    8.6%    

                                                                                                                   

CO       2116     1002  1101     47.4%  52.0%    31    10    68       1101     1043     51.0%    48.3%    7.3%     9

CT       1564     857   694      54.8%  44.4%    26    8     58       941      644      58.9%    40.3%    8.4%    

DC       226      203   21       89.8%  9.3%     10    3     14       227      10       94.8%     4.3%    4.4%   

DE       373      200   172      53.6%  46.1%    8     2     14       221      161      57.7%    42.0%    8.5%    

FL       7582     3584  3965     47.3%  52.3%    140   45    243      3967     3766     51.1%    48.5%    7.5%     27

                                                                                                                   

GA       3280     1366  1914     41.6%  58.4%    81    26    93       1540     1847     45.4%    54.5%    7.1%    

HI       426      232   194      54.5%  45.5%    18    6     16       265      184      59.0%    40.9%    9.7%    

ID       590      181   409      30.7%  69.3%    7     2     12       201      399      33.5%    66.5%    4.9%    

IL       5238     2892  2346     55.2%  44.8%    99    32    196      3187     2181     59.4%    40.6%    8.6%    

IN       2448     969   1479     39.6%  60.4%    37    12    66       1072     1425     42.9%    57.1%    6.3%    

                                                                                                                   

IA       1500     742   752      49.5%  50.1%    19    6     50       811      708      53.2%    46.4%    7.4%     7

KS       1180     435   736      36.9%  62.4%    18    6     30       482      712      40.1%    59.2%    5.9%    

KY       1791     713   1069     39.8%  59.7%    26    8     48       788      1029     43.1%    56.4%    6.3%    

LA       1929     820   1102     42.5%  57.1%    49    16    56       925      1062     46.4%    53.2%    7.3%    

ME       735      397   330      54.0%  44.9%    9     3     27       433      306      57.9%    41.0%    8.0%    

                                                                                                                   

MD       2370     1334  1024     56.3%  43.2%    60    19    91       1484     952      60.6%    38.9%    9.1%    

MA       2875     1804  1071     62.7%  37.3%    46    15    122      1972     963      67.2%    32.8%    9.4%    

MI       4816     2479  2313     51.5%  48.0%    89    28    168      2736     2173     55.4%    44.0%    8.0%    

MN       2811     1445  1347     51.4%  47.9%    41    13    98       1584     1262     55.3%    44.0%    7.8%    

MS       1146     458   685      40.0%  59.8%    31    10    31       520      664      43.8%    55.9%    7.0%    

                                                                                                                   

MO       2715     1259  1456     46.4%  53.6%    45    15    85       1390     1385     50.1%    49.9%    7.3%     11

MT       446      174   266      39.0%  59.6%    6     2     12       192      256      42.3%    56.4%    6.1%    

NE       773      254   513      32.9%  66.4%    11    3     17       282      499      35.8%    63.4%    5.3%    

NV       821      397   419      48.4%  51.0%    14    5     27       438      397      52.2%    47.2%    7.6%     5

NH       675      340   331      50.4%  49.0%    8     3     23       371      311      54.1%    45.3%    7.5%    

                                                                                                                   

NJ       3600     1911  1670     53.1%  46.4%    72    23    130      2113     1563     57.2%    42.3%    8.4%    

NM       751      370   377      49.3%  50.2%    13    4     25       408      356      53.1%    46.4%    7.7%     5

NY       7377     4314  2963     58.5%  40.2%    158   50    293      4764     2720     62.8%    35.9%    9.1%    

NC       3487     1526  1961     43.8%  56.2%    74    24    104      1704     1881     47.5%    52.5%    7.2%    

ND       312      111   197      35.6%  63.1%    4     1     8        123      191      38.7%    60.1%    5.7%    

                                                                                                                   

OH       5601     2741  2860     48.9%  51.1%    94    30    186      3021     2704     52.8%    47.2%    7.6%     20

OK       1464     504   960      34.4%  65.6%    28    9     34       566      935      37.7%    62.3%    5.8%    

OR       1810     943   867      52.1%  47.9%    26    8     64       1033     811      56.0%    44.0%    7.9%    

PA       5732     2938  2794     51.3%  48.7%    93    30    199      3231     2624     55.2%    44.8%    7.9%    

RI       434      260   169      59.9%  38.9%    7     2     18       284      153      64.2%    34.7%    9.0%    

                                                                                                                   

SC       1606     662   938      41.2%  58.4%    38    12    45       745      905      45.0%    54.6%    7.0%    

SD       386      149   233      38.6%  60.4%    6     2     10       165      225      41.9%    57.1%    6.1%    

TN       2429     1036  1384     42.7%  57.0%    45    14    70       1151     1328     46.3%    53.4%    6.9%    

TX       7360     2833  4527     38.5%  61.5%    129   41    192      3155     4376     41.9%    58.1%    6.3%    

UT       916      241   664      26.3%  72.5%    12    4     16       269      651      28.9%    69.9%    4.4%    

                                                                                                                   

VT       309      184   121      59.5%  39.2%    4     1     12       200      110      63.8%    34.9%    8.7%    

VA       3172     1455  1717     45.9%  54.1%    68    22    99       1622     1640     49.7%    50.3%    7.5%    

WA       2838     1510  1305     53.2%  46.0%    47    15    103      1660     1218     57.2%    42.0%    8.2%    

WV       755      327   424      43.3%  56.2%    9     3     22       359      405      46.7%    52.7%    6.6%    

WI       2984     1490  1478     49.9%  49.5%    44    14    101      1635     1391     53.7%    45.7%    7.6%    

WY       242      71    168      29.3%  69.4%    3     1     5        79       164      32.0%    66.7%    4.8%    

 

 Padded Votes

State

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

Padded

Cast

Padded%Cast

Alaska

111

191

11

313

20

293

6.7%

Colorado

1,002

1,101

27

2,130

33

2,097

1.6%

Connecticut

857

694

27

1,579

55

1,524

3.6%

Florida

3,584

3,965

62

7,610

238

7,372

3.2%

Idaho

181

409

8

598

13

585

2.3%

 

Maine

397

330

14

741

5

736

0.7%

Michigan

2,479

2,314

46

4,839

21

4,818

0.4%

NewHampshire

341

331

6

678

1

677

0.1%

Ohio

2,741

2,860

27

5,628

143

5,485

2.6%

SouthDakota

149

233

6

388

10

378

2.7%

 

Tennessee

1,036

1,384

16

2,437

118

2,319

5.1%

Virginia

1,455

1,717

27

3,198

64

3,134

2.1%

Washington

1,510

1,305

44

2,859

8

2,851

0.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

15,843

16,833

322

32,999

730

32,269

2.2%

 

 Uncounted Votes

State

Kerry

Bush

Other

Total

Unctd

Cast

Unctd%Cast

Alabama

694

1,176

13

1,883

177

2,060

8.6%

Arizona

894

1,104

15

2,013

226

2,239

10.1%

Arkansas

470

573

12

1,055

85

1,140

7.5%

California

6,745

5,510

165

12,420

387

12,807

3.0%

Delaware

200

172

3

375

10

385

2.6%

 

D. C.

203

21

3

228

42

270

15.7%

Georgia

1,366

1,914

21

3,302

30

3,332

0.9%

Hawaii

232

194

3

429

4

433

0.9%

Illinois

2,892

2,346

37

5,274

398

5,672

7.0%

Indiana

969

1,479

20

2,468

130

2,598

5.0%

 

Iowa

742

752

13

1,507

15

1,522

1.0%

Kansas

435

736

16

1,188

0

1,188

0.02%

Kentucky

713

1,069

14

1,796

134

1,930

6.9%

Louisiana

820

1,102

21

1,943

124

2,067

6.0%

Maryland

1,334

1,025

27

2,387

26

2,413

1.1%

 

Massachusetts

1,804

1,071

37

2,912

173

3,085

5.6%

Minnesota

1,445

1,347

37

2,828

59

2,887

2.0%

Mississippi

458

685

9

1,152

111

1,263

8.8%

Missouri

1,259

1,456

16

2,731

84

2,815

3.0%

Montana

174

266

11

450

32

482

6.6%

 

Nebraska

254

513

11

778

15

793

1.9%

Nevada

397

419

14

830

41

871

4.8%

New Jersey

1,911

1,670

30

3,612

81

3,693

2.2%

New Mexico

371

377

8

756

81

837

9.6%

New York

4,314

2,963

114

7,391

307

7,698

4.0%

 

N Carolina

1,526

1,961

14

3,501

138

3,639

3.8%

North Dakota

111

197

5

313

17

330

5.2%

Oklahoma

504

960

0

1,464

77

1,541

5.0%

Oregon

943

867

27

1,837

87

1,924

4.5%

Pennsylvania

2,938

2,794

38

5,770

75

5,845

1.3%

 

Rhode Island

260

169

8

437

30

467

6.4%

S Carolina

662

938

18

1,618

281

1,899

14.8%

Texas

2,833

4,527

51

7,411

539

7,950

6.8%

Utah

241

664

23

928

94

1,022

9.2%

Vermont

184

121

7

312

4

316

1.2%

 

West Virginia

327

424

6

756

42

798

5.3%

Wisconsin

1,490

1,478

29

2,997

13

3,010

0.4%

Wyoming

71

168

5

243

4

247

1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

43,185

45,207

903

89,295

4,173

93,468

4.7%