Uncounted and Switched Votes
TruthIsAll
The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the 2004 U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. According to the Census Bureau: “The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the “official” turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here.” The published Census survey margin of error is 0.30%.
Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure. In 13 states, the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by a total of 730,000 votes. The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k). Apparently more votes were padded than were suppressed in the 13 states. Based on the Census 3.4m net estimate, there is no way to calculate the actual mix of uncounted and padded votes. But according to investigative reporter Greg Palast, actual government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted. The votes were comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots.
Based on the 12:22am NEP vote shares with feasible weights, Kerry’s true vote was 66.1 million. Given his recorded 59.0m vote and the net uncounted votes, we can approximate the number of votes which were switched to Bush. Assuming that Kerry won 2.6m of the 3.45m (75%) net uncounted votes, then approximately 4.5m (6.8%) votes must have been switched to Bush. Assuming that the votes were switched uniformly and allocating uncounted votes to each state according to the population and racial mix, Kerry won 336 electoral votes, matching the 2004 Election Model forcast. The Monte Carlo simulation indicated that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (assuming that he captured 75% of the undecided vote).
|
Voted2k |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
|
DNV |
Na |
29.08 |
23.1% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
16.58 |
11.92 |
0.58 |
|
Gore |
95% |
46.78 |
37.2% |
91% |
8% |
1% |
42.57 |
3.74 |
0.47 |
|
Bush |
95% |
46.25 |
36.8% |
10% |
90% |
0% |
4.63 |
41.63 |
- |
|
Other |
95% |
3.63 |
2.9% |
64% |
17% |
19% |
2.32 |
0.62 |
0.69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
96.66 |
125.74 |
100.0% |
52.6% |
46.1% |
1.3% |
66.09 |
57.91 |
1.74 |
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Sensitivity Analysis |
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Kerry National Vote |
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|
Kerry
share of |
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|
|
Gore
voters |
Share
of New voters (DNV in 2000) |
||||
|
52.6% |
53% |
55% |
57% |
59% |
61% |
|
91% |
51.6% |
52.1% |
52.6% |
53.0% |
53.5% |
|
89% |
50.9% |
51.4% |
51.8% |
52.3% |
52.7% |
|
87% |
50.2% |
50.6% |
51.1% |
51.5% |
52.0% |
|
85% |
49.4% |
49.9% |
50.3% |
50.8% |
51.3% |
|
83% |
48.7% |
49.1% |
49.6% |
50.0% |
50.5% |
|
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Kerry
Margin (millions) |
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|
8.19 |
53% |
55% |
57% |
59% |
61% |
|
91% |
5.9 |
7.0 |
8.2 |
9.3 |
10.5 |
|
89% |
4.0 |
5.2 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
8.6 |
|
87% |
2.1 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
5.6 |
6.8 |
|
85% |
0.2 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
|
83% |
(1.6) |
(0.5) |
0.7 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
Given:
125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)
122.29m votes recorded
3.45m votes uncounted
Assume:
2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry
0.87% annual mortality
95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters
Calculate:
The approximate number of Kerry votes which
were switched to Bush.
True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted
(U) + Switched (S)
S = 4.5 = T - R - U = 66.10 - 59.03 - 2.58
We have
4.5 million votes switched from Kerry to
Bush
Switched vote rate:
SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8%
True Vote
Reconciliation
Recorded Share
Uncounted (net)
Switched True Vote
Kerry
59.027 75% 2.584
61.611
4.488 6.79% 66.097
52.57%
Bush
62.040 24% 0.827
62.867 -4.488 -7.69% 58.375
46.43%
Other
1.228 1%
0.034 1.262 0.000 0.00%
1.262 1.01%
Total
122.30 100% 3.445
125.74
0.000 0.00% 125.74
100.0%
VOTE
DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS
(Votes
in thousands)
NET
UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE
Kerry 75%: 2,582
Bush 24%: 826
Other 1%: 34
Total 100%: 3,443 (2.74% of Census
125.7mm)
SWITCHED
VOTES
4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were
switched to Bush
KERRY
VOTE RECONCILIATION
TrueVote 66,097 100.0%
Unctd -2,582 3.91%
Net 63,515
96.09%
Switch -4,488 6.79%
Recorded 59,027 89.30%
EFFECT
ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE
True Vote Electoral Vote
Kerry Bush Kerry
Bush
Actual
59027
62040
252
286
Change 7070
-3662 97
-97
True
66097 58378 336
202
VOTE
52.57% 46.43%
BASE
CASE SUMMARY
Switched votes: 6.8%
Share RECORDED
UNCOUNTED ADJUSTED
SWITCHED TRUE VOTE
Kerry
75% 59027 48.27%
2582
61609 49.0% 2.11%
4488
66097 52.57%
Bush
24% 62040
50.73
826
62866 50.0% 0.68%
-4488
58378 46.43%
Other
1% 1228
1.00
34
1262 1.0%
0.03% 0 1262 1.00%
Total
2.74% 122295
100.0 3442 125737
100.0% 2.81%
0 125737
100.0%
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS I
Various
effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)
(Kerry
75% share of uncounted votes)
Recorded
Share Recorded Vote
Kerry Electoral Vote
Kerry
Bush Kerry
Bush Margin Kerry
Bush States which
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 59027
62040 -3013
252 286 flipped to Bush
SVR
6.8%
52.57% 46.43% 66097
58383 7714
336 202 CO FL IA MO
NV NM OH
6.5%
52.42% 46.58% 65906
58570 7336
325 213 CO FL IA NV
NM OH
6.0%
52.15% 46.84% 65575
58901 6675
325 213 CO FL IA NV
NM OH
5.0%
51.63% 47.37% 64914
59562 5353
325 213 CO FL IA NV
NM OH
4.0%
51.10% 47.90% 64253
60223 4031
325 213 CO FL IA NV
NM OH
3.0%
50.58% 48.42% 63592
60883 2709
289 249 IA NV NM
2.0%
50.05% 48.95% 62931
61544 1387
289 249 IA NV NM
1.0%
49.52% 49.47% 62270
62205 65
264 274 IA
NM
0.0%
49.00% 50.00% 61609
62866 -1257
264 274 IA
NM
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS II:
Effect
of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote
Uncounted Vote
Share
50% 55%
60% 65% 70%
75% 80%
SVR Kerry
Electoral
Vote
6.8%
325 325
325 325
325 336 336
6.5%
325 325
325 325
325 325 336
6.0%
325 325
325 325
325 325 325
5.0%
298 298
325 325
325 325 325
4.0%
289 289
289 289
289 325 325
3.0%
289 289
289 289
289 289 289
2.0%
264 284
284 284
289 289 289
1.0%
264 264
264 264
264 264 284
0.0%
252 252
252 252
259 264 264
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS III
Effect
of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share
Uncounted Vote
Share
50% 55%
60%
65% 70%
75% 80%
SVR
Kerry Vote
Share
6.8%
51.89% 52.03% 52.16% 52.30%
52.44% 52.57% 52.71%
6.5%
51.73% 51.87% 52.00% 52.14%
52.28% 52.42% 52.55%
6.0%
51.47% 51.60% 51.74% 51.88% 52.02%
52.15% 52.29%
5.0%
50.94% 51.08% 51.22% 51.35%
51.49% 51.63% 51.76%
4.0%
50.42% 50.55% 50.69% 50.83%
50.96% 51.10% 51.24%
3.0%
49.89% 50.03% 50.16% 50.30%
50.44% 50.58% 50.71%
2.0%
49.36% 49.50% 49.64% 49.78%
49.91% 50.05% 50.19%
1.0%
48.84% 48.98% 49.11% 49.25%
49.39% 49.52% 49.66%
0.0%
48.31% 48.45% 48.59% 48.72%
48.86% 49.00% 49.14%
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS IV
Effect
of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin
Uncounted Vote
Share
50%
55% 60%
65% 70%
75% 80%
SVR Kerry Margin (in
thousands)
6.8%
6011 6355
6699 7044
7388 7732 8077
6.5%
5614 5958
6303 6647
6991 7336 7680
6.0%
4953 5297
5642 5986
6330 6675 7019
5.0%
3631 3975
4320 4664
5008 5353 5697
4.0%
2309 2654
2998 3342
3686 4031 4375
3.0%
987 1332
1676 2020
2365 2709 3053
2.0%
-335 10 p;
354 698
1043 1387 1731
1.0%
-1657 -1312 & -968
-624 -279 &nbbsp;
65 409
0.0%
-2979 -2634 & -2290
-1946 -1601 & -1257 -913
State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes
(in thousands)
Recorded
Vote Uncounted Switched TRUE
Vote
Total Kerry Bush
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry
Bush
Kerry Bush Margin
EVote
122295 59027 62040
48.27% 50.73% 2582 826
4488 66097 58378
52.57% 46.43% Change Flip
AL
1877 694 1176
37.0% 62.7%
42 14
47 784
1142
40.5% 59.1%
6.4%
AK
307
111 191
36.2% 62.2%
7 2 8
125 186
39.7% 58.7%
6.3%
AZ
1998 894 1104
44.7% 55.3%
31 10
61 986
1053
48.3% 51.6%
7.0%
AR
1049
470 573
44.8% 54.6%
19 6
32 521
547
48.5% 50.9%
7.2%
CA
12255 6745 5510
55.0% 45.0%
246 79 458
7449 5131 59.2% 40.8%
8.6%
CO
2116 1002 1101 47.4% 52.0%
31 10
68 1101
1043
51.0% 48.3% 7.3%
9
CT
1564
857 694
54.8% 44.4%
26 8
58 941
644
58.9% 40.3%
8.4%
DC
226
203 21
89.8% 9.3%
10 3
14 227
10 94.8%
4.3% 4.4%
DE
373
200 172
53.6% 46.1%
8 2
14 221
161
57.7% 42.0%
8.5%
FL
7582 3584 3965
47.3% 52.3%
140 45 243
3967 3766
51.1% 48.5%
7.5% 27
GA
3280 1366 1914
41.6% 58.4%
81 26
93 1540
1847
45.4% 54.5%
7.1%
HI
426
232 194
54.5% 45.5%
18 6 16
265 184
59.0% 40.9%
9.7%
ID
590
181 409
30.7% 69.3%
7 2 12
201 399
33.5% 66.5%
4.9%
IL
5238 2892 2346
55.2% 44.8%
99 32 196
3187 2181
59.4% 40.6%
8.6%
IN
2448 969 1479
39.6% 60.4%
37 12 66
1072 1425
42.9% 57.1%
6.3%
IA
1500
742 752
49.5% 50.1%
19 6 50
811 708
53.2% 46.4%
7.4% 7
KS
1180
435 736
36.9% 62.4%
18 6 30
482 712
40.1% 59.2%
5.9%
KY
1791 713 1069
39.8% 59.7%
26 8 48
788 1029
43.1% 56.4%
6.3%
LA
1929 820 1102
42.5% 57.1%
49 16 56
925 1062
46.4% 53.2%
7.3%
ME
735
397 330
54.0% 44.9%
9 3 27
433 306
57.9% 41.0%
8.0%
MD
2370 1334 1024
56.3% 43.2%
60 19 91
1484 952
60.6% 38.9%
9.1%
MA
2875 1804 1071
62.7% 37.3%
46 15 122
1972 963
67.2% 32.8%
9.4%
MI
4816 2479 2313
51.5% 48.0%
89 28 168
2736 2173 55.4% 44.0%
8.0%
MN
2811 1445 1347
51.4% 47.9%
41 13 98
1584 1262
55.3% 44.0%
7.8%
MS
1146
458 685 40.0% 59.8%
31 10 31
520 664
43.8% 55.9% 7.0%
MO
2715 1259 1456
46.4% 53.6%
45 15 85
1390 1385
50.1% 49.9%
7.3% 11
MT
446
174 266
39.0% 59.6%
6 2 12
192 256
42.3% 56.4%
6.1%
NE
773
254 513
32.9% 66.4%
11 3 17
282 499
35.8% 63.4%
5.3%
NV
821
397 419
48.4% 51.0%
14 5 27
438 397
52.2% 47.2%
7.6% 5
NH
675
340 331
50.4% 49.0%
8 3 23
371 311
54.1% 45.3% 7.5%
NJ
3600 1911 1670
53.1% 46.4%
72 23 130
2113 1563
57.2% 42.3%
8.4%
NM
751
370 377
49.3% 50.2%
13 4 25
408 356
53.1% 46.4%
7.7% 5
NY
7377 4314 2963
58.5% 40.2%
158 50 293
4764 2720
62.8% 35.9%
9.1%
NC
3487 1526 1961 43.8% 56.2%
74 24 104
1704 1881
47.5% 52.5% 7.2%
ND
312
111 197
35.6% 63.1%
4 1 8
123 191
38.7% 60.1%
5.7%
OH
5601 2741 2860
48.9% 51.1%
94 30 186
3021 2704
52.8% 47.2%
7.6% 20
OK
1464
504 960
34.4% 65.6%
28 9 34
566 935
37.7% 62.3%
5.8%
OR
1810
943 867
52.1% 47.9%
26 8 64
1033 811
56.0% 44.0%
7.9%
PA
5732 2938 2794
51.3% 48.7%
93 30 199
3231 2624
55.2% 44.8%
7.9%
RI
434
260 169
59.9% 38.9%
7 2 18
284 153
64.2% 34.7%
9.0%
SC
1606
662 938
41.2% 58.4%
38 12 45
745 905
45.0% 54.6%
7.0%
SD
386
149 233
38.6% 60.4%
6 2 10
165 225
41.9% 57.1%
6.1%
TN
2429 1036 1384 42.7% 57.0%
45 14 70
1151 1328
46.3% 53.4% 6.9%
TX
7360 2833 4527
38.5% 61.5%
129 41 192
3155 4376
41.9% 58.1%
6.3%
UT
916
241 664
26.3% 72.5%
12 4 16
269 651
28.9% 69.9%
4.4%
VT
309
184 121
59.5% 39.2%
4 1 12
200 110
63.8% 34.9%
8.7%
VA
3172 1455 1717
45.9% 54.1%
68 22 99
1622 1640
49.7% 50.3%
7.5%
WA
2838 1510 1305
53.2% 46.0%
47 15 103
1660 1218
57.2% 42.0% 8.2%
WV
755
327 424
43.3% 56.2%
9 3 22
359 405
46.7% 52.7%
6.6%
WI
2984 1490 1478
49.9% 49.5%
44 14 101
1635 1391
53.7% 45.7%
7.6%
WY
242
71 168
29.3% 69.4%
3 1 5
79 164
32.0% 66.7%
4.8%
Padded Votes
|
State |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
Padded |
Cast |
Padded%Cast |
|
Alaska |
111 |
191 |
11 |
313 |
20 |
293 |
6.7% |
|
Colorado |
1,002 |
1,101 |
27 |
2,130 |
33 |
2,097 |
1.6% |
|
Connecticut |
857 |
694 |
27 |
1,579 |
55 |
1,524 |
3.6% |
|
Florida |
3,584 |
3,965 |
62 |
7,610 |
238 |
7,372 |
3.2% |
|
Idaho |
181 |
409 |
8 |
598 |
13 |
585 |
2.3% |
|
Maine |
397 |
330 |
14 |
741 |
5 |
736 |
0.7% |
|
Michigan |
2,479 |
2,314 |
46 |
4,839 |
21 |
4,818 |
0.4% |
|
NewHampshire |
341 |
331 |
6 |
678 |
1 |
677 |
0.1% |
|
Ohio |
2,741 |
2,860 |
27 |
5,628 |
143 |
5,485 |
2.6% |
|
SouthDakota |
149 |
233 |
6 |
388 |
10 |
378 |
2.7% |
|
Tennessee |
1,036 |
1,384 |
16 |
2,437 |
118 |
2,319 |
5.1% |
|
Virginia |
1,455 |
1,717 |
27 |
3,198 |
64 |
3,134 |
2.1% |
|
Washington |
1,510 |
1,305 |
44 |
2,859 |
8 |
2,851 |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
15,843 |
16,833 |
322 |
32,999 |
730 |
32,269 |
2.2% |
Uncounted Votes
|
State |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
Unctd |
Cast |
Unctd%Cast |
|
Alabama |
694 |
1,176 |
13 |
1,883 |
177 |
2,060 |
8.6% |
|
Arizona |
894 |
1,104 |
15 |
2,013 |
226 |
2,239 |
10.1% |
|
Arkansas |
470 |
573 |
12 |
1,055 |
85 |
1,140 |
7.5% |
|
California |
6,745 |
5,510 |
165 |
12,420 |
387 |
12,807 |
3.0% |
|
Delaware |
200 |
172 |
3 |
375 |
10 |
385 |
2.6% |
|
D. C. |
203 |
21 |
3 |
228 |
42 |
270 |
15.7% |
|
Georgia |
1,366 |
1,914 |
21 |
3,302 |
30 |
3,332 |
0.9% |
|
Hawaii |
232 |
194 |
3 |
429 |
4 |
433 |
0.9% |
|
Illinois |
2,892 |
2,346 |
37 |
5,274 |
398 |
5,672 |
7.0% |
|
Indiana |
969 |
1,479 |
20 |
2,468 |
130 |
2,598 |
5.0% |
|
Iowa |
742 |
752 |
13 |
1,507 |
15 |
1,522 |
1.0% |
|
Kansas |
435 |
736 |
16 |
1,188 |
0 |
1,188 |
0.02% |
|
Kentucky |
713 |
1,069 |
14 |
1,796 |
134 |
1,930 |
6.9% |
|
Louisiana |
820 |
1,102 |
21 |
1,943 |
124 |
2,067 |
6.0% |
|
Maryland |
1,334 |
1,025 |
27 |
2,387 |
26 |
2,413 |
1.1% |
|
Massachusetts |
1,804 |
1,071 |
37 |
2,912 |
173 |
3,085 |
5.6% |
|
Minnesota |
1,445 |
1,347 |
37 |
2,828 |
59 |
2,887 |
2.0% |
|
Mississippi |
458 |
685 |
9 |
1,152 |
111 |
1,263 |
8.8% |
|
Missouri |
1,259 |
1,456 |
16 |
2,731 |
84 |
2,815 |
3.0% |
|
Montana |
174 |
266 |
11 |
450 |
32 |
482 |
6.6% |
|
Nebraska |
254 |
513 |
11 |
778 |
15 |
793 |
1.9% |
|
Nevada |
397 |
419 |
14 |
830 |
41 |
871 |
4.8% |
|
New Jersey |
1,911 |
1,670 |
30 |
3,612 |
81 |
3,693 |
2.2% |
|
New Mexico |
371 |
377 |
8 |
756 |
81 |
837 |
9.6% |
|
New York |
4,314 |
2,963 |
114 |
7,391 |
307 |
7,698 |
4.0% |
|
N Carolina |
1,526 |
1,961 |
14 |
3,501 |
138 |
3,639 |
3.8% |
|
North Dakota |
111 |
197 |
5 |
313 |
17 |
330 |
5.2% |
|
Oklahoma |
504 |
960 |
0 |
1,464 |
77 |
1,541 |
5.0% |
|
Oregon |
943 |
867 |
27 |
1,837 |
87 |
1,924 |
4.5% |
|
Pennsylvania |
2,938 |
2,794 |
38 |
5,770 |
75 |
5,845 |
1.3% |
|
Rhode Island |
260 |
169 |
8 |
437 |
30 |
467 |
6.4% |
|
S Carolina |
662 |
938 |
18 |
1,618 |
281 |
1,899 |
14.8% |
|
Texas |
2,833 |
4,527 |
51 |
7,411 |
539 |
7,950 |
6.8% |
|
Utah |
241 |
664 |
23 |
928 |
94 |
1,022 |
9.2% |
|
Vermont |
184 |
121 |
7 |
312 |
4 |
316 |
1.2% |
|
West Virginia |
327 |
424 |
6 |
756 |
42 |
798 |
5.3% |
|
Wisconsin |
1,490 |
1,478 |
29 |
2,997 |
13 |
3,010 |
0.4% |
|
Wyoming |
71 |
168 |
5 |
243 |
4 |
247 |
1.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
43,185 |
45,207 |
903 |
89,295 |
4,173 |
93,468 |
4.7% |