Wisconsin 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

 

Richard Charnin

 

June 16, 2011

Updated: May 6, 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a True Vote analysis of the 2010 Wisconsin senate race. The Final 2010 Wisconsin Senate Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Johnson defeated Feingold by 52-47%). Forcing a match to the recorded vote is standard operating procedure on the part of the exit pollsters. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election.

 

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote, In 2010, the Final WI senate exit poll was again forced to match the recorded vote. In the Final, 49% of the 2010 recorded vote were cast by returning Obama voters and 43% by returning McCain voters. The ratio is consistent with Obama’s 7.5% national recorded vote margin. But a WI True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won by 57-41%.

************************************************************************************************************************

 

5/6/12 Update:

The unadjusted 2008 state presidential exit polls were not available when this analysis was first posted.

Obama won the unadjusted Wisconsin poll by 63-36% (n=2,545 respondents) - a 63.9% (2-party) share. He had 56.2% recorded.

The exit poll 2.43% margin of error includes a 30% "cluster effect".

Based on the MoE, there is a 97.5% probability that Obama's True Wisconsin vote share exceeded 60.77% = 63.20% - 2.43%.

 

Using the unadjusted polls as a basis, Feingold won by 53.2-45.6%, a 165,000 vote margin.

 

But even that is conservative: The calculation uses the final exit poll vote shares that were required to match the recorded vote

The shares were adjusted to favor Johnson (Feingold had just 84% of returning Obama voters, an implausibly low share).

If Feingold had a plausible 89% of Obama voters (all else equal), he would have won by 289,000 votes with a 56% total share.

 

Furthermore, the model assumes 76% McCain voter turnout in 2010, compared to just 68% of Obama voters.

If just 63% of Obama voters and 81% of McCain voters turned out, then all constant, Feingold wins by 52,000 votes with a 50.6% total share.

 

 

 

 

2008

 

 

2010

 

                  Base Case True Vote

 

 

Exit Poll

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Taylor

Obama

1,888,503

63.3%

1,814,851

68.0%

1,234,099

56.8%

84%

15%

1%

McCain

1,065,080

35.7%

1,023,542

76.0%

777,892

35.8%

7%

93%

 

Other

29,834

1.0%

28,671

72.0%

20,643

1.0%

40%

56%

4%

DNV

-

-

-

-

138,697

6.4%

40%

50%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

2,983,417

100.0%

2,867,064

70.9%

2,171,331

Share

53.2%

45.6%

1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

1,154,832

989,463

27,036

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

165,369

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

47.0%

51.9%

1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

1,020,958

1,125,999

23,473

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-105,041

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010

Turnout

 

 

 

Feingold share of

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

 

 

 

Obama

McCain

 

 

 

68%

76%

 

 

 

84%

7%

 

           Feingold share of Obama

 

 

 

        Obama Turnout

 

 

Feingold%

79%

84%

89%

 

McCain

63%

68%

73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

     Feingold Share

 

 

Turnout

        Feingold Share

 

 

12%

52.1%

55.0%

57.8%

 

71%

52.1%

54.0%

55.8%

 

7%

50.3%

53.2%

56.0%

 

76%

51.3%

53.2%

55.0%

 

2%

48.6%

51.4%

54.2%

 

81%

50.6%

52.4%

54.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Feingold Margin

 

 

 

       Feingold Margin

 

 

12%

119,748

243,158

366,568

 

71%

119,292

199,146

278,999

 

7%

41,959

165,369

288,779

 

76%

85,515

165,369

245,222

 

2%

-35,830

87,580

210,989

 

81%

51,738

131,592

211,445

 

 

 

************************ end of update ***********************************

 

It is logical to assume that there were more returning Obama voters than indicated in the 2010 WI exit poll. Therefore, the returning Obama voters share of the 2010 electorate was increased. Election fraud may very well have cost Feingold the election. The True Vote analysis indicates that Feingold had an approximate 50.6% vote share and 50,000 vote margin.

 

Vote shares were not provided for returning third party (Other) voters and new (DNV) voters in the WI Exit Poll. These categories represented 3% and 5% of the total 2010 recorded vote, respectively. In order to match the recorded vote, Johnson must have won these voters by approximately 61-35% and 64-36%, respectively. This is a RED FLAG! Obama won third party voters by 66-20% over McCain. It strains credulity that returning third party voters would switch from Obama to Johnson in those amounts.

 

Note the SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS which displays vote shares for various returning voter mix assumptions (scenarios) and Feingold’s share of returning McCain voters. Although the Final Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, the Base Case True Vote scenario assumes the Final Exit Poll vote shares; only the returning voter mix was adjusted. However, it is likely that the vote shares were also adjusted to force the match.

 

The True Vote Base Case analysis assumes a 60% turnout of living Obama voters and a 70% turnout of McCain voters and a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate. The percentage mix of returning 2008 third-party (other) voters could not have been the 3% indicated in the WI exit poll. That would mean there were 65,000 third-party voters and there were just 44,000. Therefore, the model assigned the 1.5% excess of Other voters to New/DNV (first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2008).

 

Feingold was a clear winner assuming that the percentage turnout of returning Obama voters was equal or greater than that of McCain voters. But it is important to keep in mind that the WI exit poll gave Feingold just 84% of returning Obama voters. This is extremely implausible. It is difficult to accept the premise that nearly one of six Obama voters defected to Johnson.

 

A comparison of the exit poll demographic changes from 2004 to 2010 yields some interesting results:

 

When Decided: Feingold was the winner in this category.

1) Feingold led the 83% of voters who decided a week prior to the election by 51-48%, and won by 50.7-48.5%.

2) He led the 68% of voters who decided a month prior by 51-48%, and won by 50.4-49.0%.

3) He led the 69% of voters who decided a month prior to the election by 51-48%. Vote shares for the last week were not available. Johnson needed 70% of voters who decided in the last week (17% of the total) to match his recorded share.

 

Gender: In 2004, females comprised 53% total voters; in 2010, they were just 50% of the total.

Age: Voters over 45 comprised 50% of the electorate in 2004 and 62% in 2010.

Party ID: In 2004, Democrats were 35% and GOP 38% of the electorate. In 2010, Democrats were 37%, the GOP had 36%.

Region: Milwaukee County had 16% of voters in both 2004 and 2010. Feingold had 68% in 2004 but just 61% in 2010

Southeast (incl Waukesha) had 19% of voters in 2004 and 27% in 2010. Feingold had 39% in 2004 and 34% in 2010.

 

Assuming that Feingold had 88% of returning Obama voters (65% turnout) and Johnson had 93% of returning McCain voters (75% turnout), Feingold was still a 50.0-48.8% winner with a 26,000 vote margin.

 

 

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 WI

Recorded

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Obama

1677

56.2%

1635

65%

1063

49.0%

88%

11%

1%

935

117

11

McCain

1262

42.3%

1231

75%

923

42.5%

7%

93%

0%

65

858

0

Other

44

1.5%

43

70%

30

1.4%

51%

45%

4%

15

13

1

DNV/New

 

 

 

-

154

7.1%

45%

45%

10%

69

69

15

Total

2983

100.0%

2908

69%

2170

100%

50.0%

48.8%

1.3%

1085

1058

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin:

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have included a comparable Oregon analysis. Oregon Senator Wyden, a popular progressive Democrat like Feingold, was re-elected with a 57% share, closely matching Obama’s 56.8% OR share.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final 2008 National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

 

2008 National True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

DNV

13%

71%

27%

2%

 

DNV

12.4%

71%

27%

2%

 

 

 

Kerry

37%

89%

9%

1%

 

Kerry

46.8%

89%

9%

1%

 

 

 

Bush

46%

17%

82%

1%

 

Bush

39.7%

17%

82%

1%

 

 

 

Other

4%

66%

20%

8%

 

Other

1.1%

66%

20%

8%

 

 

 

Total

100%

52.6%

45.4%

1.4%

 

Total

100%

57.9%

40.3%

1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Wisconsin Presidential Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2008 Wisconsin Presidential True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

New/DNV

7.0%

77.2%

20.9%

1.9%

 

New/DNV

7.0%

75.5%

22.6%

1.9%

 

 

 

Kerry

46.3%

91.0%

7.1%

1.9%

 

Kerry

49.3%

89.0%

9.1%

1.9%

 

 

 

Bush

45.8%

17.4%

81.7%

1.0%

 

Bush

42.8%

17.0%

82.1%

0.9%

 

 

 

Other

0.9%

73.7%

24.4%

1.9%

 

Other

0.9%

72.0%

26.1%

1.9%

 

 

 

Total

100%

56.2%

42.3%

1.5%

 

Total

100%

57.1%

41.4%

1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final 2008 Oregon Exit poll (recorded vote)

 

2008 Oregon True Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Voted 2004

Mix

Obama

McCain

Other

 

 

 

New/DNV

3%

77%

19%

4%

 

New/DNV

3.9%

76.2%

20.2%

3.6%

 

 

 

Kerry

51%

90%

6%

4%

 

Kerry

52.2%

89.0%

7.4%

3.6%

 

 

 

Bush

45%

17%

81%

2%

 

Bush

42.5%

17.0%

81.2%

1.8%

 

 

 

Other

1%

73%

24%

4%

 

Other

1.4%

72.0%

24.4%

3.6%

 

 

 

Total

100%

56.8%

40.4%

2.9%

 

Total

100%

57.7%

39.5%

2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 Oregon Senate

Changed exit poll mix from Other (6%) and DNV (5%)

Estimated vote shares to force a match to the recorded vote.

 

Oregon

Recorded

Votes

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Wyden

Huffman

Other

Obama

56.75%

1,074

1047

72.8%

763

53%

88%

9%

3%

McCain 

40.40%

719

701

73.9%

518

36%

19%

80%

1%

Other 

2.85%

53

52

55.7%

29

2%

35%

40%

5%

DNV 

 

 

 

 

130

9%

35%

55%

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

1846

1800

72.7%

1439

100%

57.3%

39.3%

3.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Votes

825

566

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 Wisconsin Senate

True Vote Base Case

 

 

 

 

97.5%

Turnout

2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 WI

True

Share

Alive

Rate

Voted

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Obama

1700

57.0%

1658

60%

995

45.8%

88%

11%

1%

875

109

10

McCain

1238

41.5%

1207

70%

845

38.9%

7%

93%

0%

59

786

0

Other

45

1.5%

44

70%

31

1.4%

50%

50%

0%

15

15

0

DNV/New

 

 

 

-

300

13.8%

50%

50%

0%

150

150

0

Total

2983

100.0%

2908

64%

2170

100%

50.7%

48.9%

0.5%

1100

1060

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin:

39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

47.0%

51.9%

1.1%

1020

1126

24

 

 

 

 

 

Feingold share

 

 

 

 

 

Feingold share

 

 

Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

Johnson%

 

 

 

 

Turnout

 

Feingold % Obama

 

 

 

McCain

 

Feingold % Obama

 

 

50.7%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

 

50.7%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

68%

49.9%

50.9%

52.0%

53.0%

54.0%

 

89%

49.5%

50.4%

51.3%

52.2%

53.2%

66%

49.4%

50.4%

51.4%

52.4%

53.4%

 

90%

49.1%

50.0%

50.9%

51.8%

52.8%

64%

48.9%

49.9%

50.9%

51.8%

52.8%

 

91%

48.7%

49.6%

50.5%

51.5%

52.4%

62%

48.4%

49.4%

50.3%

51.3%

52.2%

 

92%

48.3%

49.2%

50.1%

51.1%

52.0%

60%

47.9%

48.8%

49.8%

50.7%

51.6%

 

93%

47.9%

48.8%

49.8%

50.7%

51.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feingold Margin

 

 

 

 

 

Feingold Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68%

6

51

96

141

187

 

89%

(12)

27

67

107

147

66%

(15)

28

72

116

160

 

90%

(29)

10

50

90

130

64%

(37)

5

48

90

133

 

91%

(46)

(6)

33

73

113

62%

(59)

(17)

24

65

106

 

92%

(63)

(23)

16

56

96

60%

(80)

(40)

(0)

39

79

 

93%

(80)

(40)

(0)

39

79

 

 

Exit Poll Comparison

 

 

2004

 

 

 

 

2010

 

 

 

 

 

Gender

Mix

FeIngold

Michels

 

 

Mix

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Mix Chg

Male 

47%

52%

48%

 

 

50%

42%

56%

2%

3%

Female 

53%

58%

42%

 

 

50%

52%

48%

0%

-3%

Total

100%

55.2%

44.8%

 

 

100%

44.7%

48.5%

0.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Race

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White 

90%

53%

47%

 

 

90%

44%

55%

1%

0%

Black

5%

83%

17%

 

 

4%

86%

14%

0%

-1%

Latino 

2%

*

*

 

N/A est

4%

67%

33%

N/A

2%

Asian 

1%

*

*

 

N/A est

1%

67%

33%

N/A

0%

Other 

2%

*

*

 

N/A est

1%

67%

33%

N/A

-1%

Total

100%

51.9%

43.2%

 

 

100%

47.1%

52.0%

0.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gender / Race

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White Men

43%

50%

49%

 

 

45%

40%

59%

1%

2%

White Women

47%

56%

44%

 

 

45%

49%

50%

1%

-2%

Non-White Men

4%

69%

30%

 

 

4%

70%

30%

0%

0%

NW Women

6%

78%

20%

 

 

6%

70%

30%

0%

0%

Total

100%

55.3%

44.2%

 

 

100%

47.1%

52.1%

0.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Age

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18-29

20%

56%

42%

 

18-29 

15%

53%

46%

1%

-5%

30-44

30%

51%

49%

 

30-44 

23%

43%

56%

1%

-7%

45-59

29%

57%

42%

 

45-64 

45%

47%

51%

2%

 

60+

21%

56%

44%

 

65+ 

17%

46%

54%

0%

 

 

100%

54.8%

44.5%

 

Total

100%

46.8%

51.9%

1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Under $30,000

26%

60%

39%

 

 

20%

58%

40%

2%

-6%

$30-50,000

25%

57%

43%

 

 

22%

48%

51%

1%

-3%

$50-75,000

24%

55%

45%

 

 

27%

46%

54%

N/A

3%

$75-100,000 

12%

48%

51%

 

 

16%

45%

55%

N/A

4%

$100-200,000

10%

50%

50%

 

 

15%

37%

62%

1%

5%

$200,000 +

3%

38%

62%

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

na

Total

100%

55.0%

44.7%

 

 

100%

47.3%

51.9%

0.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Education

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No H.S. 

5%

65%

35%

 

 

3%

44%

55%

1%

-2%

H.S. Graduate 

25%

52%

48%

 

 

24%

44%

55%

1%

-1%

Some College 

34%

55%

44%

 

 

35%

43%

56%

1%

1%

College Graduate

22%

51%

48%

 

 

24%

47%

53%

0%

2%

Postgraduate 

14%

62%

38%

 

 

14%

63%

37%

0%

0%

Total

100%

54.9%

44.6%

 

 

100%

47.0%

52.4%

0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Graduate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes 

36%

56%

44%

 

 

38%

53%

47%

0%

2%

No 

64%

54%

45%

 

 

62%

44%

55%

1%

-2%

Total

100%

54.7%

44.6%

 

 

100%

47.4%

52.0%

0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party ID

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat 

35%

93%

7%

 

 

37%

92%

8%

0%

2%

Republican 

38%

14%

86%

 

 

36%

5%

94%

1%

-2%

Independent 

27%

62%

37%

 

 

27%

43%

56%

1%

0%

Total

100%

54.6%

45.1%

 

 

100%

47.5%

51.9%

0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ideology

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liberal 

20%

86%

13%

 

 

21%

89%

10%

1%

1%

Moderate 

48%

63%

37%

 

 

43%

58%

42%

0%

-5%

Conservative 

32%

22%

78%

 

 

36%

11%

89%

0%

4%

Total

100%

54.5%

45.3%

 

 

100%

47.6%

52.2%

0.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labor Union

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes 

28%

66%

33%

 

 

26%

59%

40%

1%

-2%

No 

72%

50%

49%

 

 

74%

44%

55%

1%

2%

Total

100%

54.5%

44.5%

 

 

100%

47.9%

51.1%

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Voted in 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama 

na

 

 

 

 

49%

84%

15%

1%

 

McCain

na

 

 

 

 

43%

7%

93%

0%

 

Other 

na

 

 

 

N/A est

3%

36%

54%

10%

Forced

Did not vote 

na

 

 

 

N/A est

5%

34%

61%

5%

to match

Total

na

 

 

 

 

100%

47.0%

52.0%

1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last 3 Days

10%

68%

32%

 

N/A est

10%

26%

71%

3%

Forced

Last Week 

2%

68%

32%

 

N/A est

7%

33%

66%

1%

to match

Last Month 

11%

61%

39%

 

 

14%

49%

51%

0%

 

Before  

77%

52%

48%

 

 

69%

51%

48%

1%

 

Total

100%

54.9%

45.1%

 

 

100%

47.0%

52.0%

1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week 

na

 

 

 

 

17%

49%

51%

N/A

 

Before  

na

 

 

 

 

83%

51%

48%

1%

 

Total

na

 

 

 

 

100%

50.7%

48.5%

0.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Decided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Month 

na

 

 

 

 

32%

49%

51%

N/A

 

Before

na

 

 

 

 

68%

51%

48%

1%

 

Total

na

 

 

 

 

100%

50.4%

49.0%

0.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size of Place

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big Cities 

6%

81%

18%

 

 

9%

72%

26%

2%

3%

Smaller Cities 

19%

61%

39%

 

 

6%

69%

31%

N/A

-13%

Suburbs

40%

51%

48%

 

 

49%

43%

56%

1%

9%

Small Towns

9%

51%

48%

 

N/A est

4%

47%

53%

N/A

-5%

Rural 

26%

51%

49%

 

 

32%

42%

57%

1%

6%

Total

100%

54.7%

44.8%

 

 

100%

47.0%

52.0%

1.0%

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Size of Place

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Urban 

26%

66%

34%

 

 

16%

71%

28%

1%

-10%

Suburban

39%

51%

48%

 

 

49%

43%

56%

1%

10%

Rural 

35%

51%

48%

 

 

35%

42%

57%

1%

0%

Total

100%

54.9%

44.4%

 

 

100%

47.1%

51.9%

1.0%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Milwaukee Cty

16%

68%

32%

 

 

16%

61%

38%

1%

0%

Southeast

19%

39%

61%

 

 

27%

34%

66%

0%

8%

Southwest

25%

61%

39%

 

 

18%

61%

38%

1%

-7%

Northeast

17%

49%

50%

 

 

17%

42%

57%

1%

0%

Northwest

23%

57%

42%

 

 

22%

46%

53%

1%

-1%

Total

100%

55.0%

44.6%

 

 

100%

47.2%

52.1%

0.7%