Will the Democratic Recall Elections be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

 

Aug. 13, 2011

 

Richard Charnin

 

The Democrats won two of the six GOP recall elections. A post-election True Vote analysis indicates that they may have won all six.

 

The Republicans have a 17-16 majority in the senate. But it wonít be enough to enact Walkerís agenda if just one Republican defects and votes with the Democrats. Now the Democrats need to defend two seats in the final recall elections: Jim Holperin in District 12 and Bill Wirch in District 22.The GOP needs one to get an 18-15 foolproof majority. Letís see what it would take for the GOP to win a seat.

 

The analysis is based on the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model .

 

In any election, there are two key factors: voter turnout and voter preference. We know how many voters returned from the previous election (as a percentage). But we must estimate the percentage mix of returning Democrats and Republicans.The number of new voters is just the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters. In the recall analysis, we will assume that new voters were split equally between the Democrats and the Republicans.

 

 

District 12:

Obama had 52.8%. Election fraud could cost the Democrats this seat (the GOP "won" District 2 where Obama had 52.5%).

 

Case 1: Zero net defection.

Democrat Holperin wins 95% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters.

The GOP wins if 60% of McCain voters turn out and fewer than 52% of Obama voters do.

 

Case 2: Assume equal 60% Obama and McCain turnout

The GOP wins if Holperin captures fewer than 88% of Obama voters.

 

District 22:

Obama had 57.3%. The probability that the Democrats will hold the seat is virtually 100%.

 

Case 1: Zero net defection.

Democrat Wirch wins 95% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters.

The GOP wins if 60% of McCain voters turn out and fewer than 45% of Obama voters do.

 

Case 2: Equal 60% Obama and McCain turnout

The GOP wins if Wirch captures fewer than 83% of Obama voters.

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

The following tables display Democratic vote shares over a range of Obama/McCain turnout rates and shares of returning Obama and McCain voters.

 

 

District††††††††††† 2008††††††††††††††† True Share†††††† Turnout†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ††††††††††† Mix††††††††††††††††† Dem††† ††††††††††† GOP

12††††††††††††††††††† Obama†††††††††††† 52.78%††††††††††† 60%†††† ††††††††††† ††††††††††† Obama†††††††††††† 53.53%††††††††††† 88%††† ††††††††††† 12%

††††††††††††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††† 45.82%††††††††††† 60%†††† ††††††††††††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††† 46.47%††††††††††† 5%††††† ††††††††††† 95%

 

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ††††††††††† ††††††††††† Total†††††††††††††† 49.43%††††††††††† 50.57%

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

††††††††††† Dem Share††††† ††††††††††† Democratic Share of Obama†††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††††††††††††††† Obama Turnout††††††††††

††††††††††† of McCain†††††† 86%†††††††††††††††† 88%††††††††††††††† 90%†††††††††††††††† Turnout†††††††††† 58%†††††††††††††††† 60%††† ††††††††††† 62%

 

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Democratic Share †††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† ††††††††††† Democratic Share †††††† †††††††††††

††††††††††† 7%†††††††††††††††††† 49.29%††††††††††† 50.36%††††††††††† 51.43%††††††††††† 58%†††††††††††††††† 49.43%††††††††††† 50.13%††††††††††† 50.81%

††††††††††† 5%††††† ††††††††††† 48.36%††††††††††† 49.43%†††††††††† 50.50%††††††††††† 60%††††††††††††††† 48.73%††††††††††† 49.43%††††††††††† 50.11%

††††††††††† 3%†††††††††††††††††† 47.43%††††††††††† 48.50%††††††††††† 49.57%††††††††††† 62%†††††††††††††††† 48.05%††††††††††† 48.75%††††††††††† 49.43%

 

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District††††††††††††††††††††††† 2008††† True Share†††††† Turnout†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Mix††††††††††††††††† Dem††† ††††††††††† GOP

22††††††††††††††††††† Obama†††††††††††† 57.26%††††††††††† 60%†††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Obama†††††††††††† 58.02%††††††††††† 82%††† ††††††††††† 18%

††††††††††††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††† 41.42%††††††††††† 60%†††††††††††††††††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††† 41.98%††††††††††† 5%††††† ††††††††††† 95%

 

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Total†††††††††††††† 49.68%††††††††††† 50.32%

†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††

††††††††††† Dem Share††††††††††††††††† Democratic Share of Obama†††††††††††††† McCain†††††††††††††††††††††† Obama Turnout††††††††††

††††††††††† of McCain†††††† 80%†††††††††††††††† 82%††††††††††††††† 84%†††††††††††††††† Turnout†††††††††† 58%†††††††††††††††† 60%††† ††††††††††† 62%

 

††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Democratic Share †††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††† Democratic Share †††††† †††††††††††

††††††††††† 7%†††††††††††††††††† 49.36%††††††††††† 50.52%††††††††††† 51.68%††††††††††† 58%†††††††††††††††† 49.68%††††††††††† 50.31%††††††††††† 50.92%

††††††††††† 5%††††††††††††††††† 48.52%††††††††††† 49.68%†††††††††† 50.84%††††††††††† 60%††††††††††††††† 49.04%††††††††††† 49.68%††††††††††† 50.29%

††††††††††† 3%†††††††††††††††††† 47.68%††††††††††† 48.84%††††††††††† 50.00%††††††††††† 62%†††††††††††††††† 48.42%††††††††††† 49.06%††††††††††† 49.68%