Can the GOP win the Aug 16 Democratic Recall
Elections?
August 16, 2011
Election results are always
a function of voter turnout, returning voter preference and…election fraud.
This is a scenario
analysis to determine what it would take for the Democrats to lose one or both
seats.
In the base case scenario
we assume equal turnout of Obama and McCain voters, zero net defection and no
fraud.
The sensitivity analysis
tables display Democratic vote shares over a range of turnout and voter
preferences.
District 12 is vulnerable.
In 2008, Obama had 52.5% in District 2 - and the GOP won the
recall.
Obama had 52.8% in District 12.
Pre-election polls show Holperin
winning,
Holperin will win, assuming zero fraud, zero net
defection and equal turnout rates of Obama and McCain voters.
But he could still lose - if the election is stolen.
Assuming equal turnout rates of Obama and McCain voters, the
GOP needs a 6% net defection of returning Obama voters to win.
Assuming equal turnout and zero net defection, the GOP would
have to switch 4% of Holperin's votes.
District 22 appears safe. Obama
had 57.3% in the district.
Assuming equal turnout, the GOP needs a net13% defection of
Obama voters to capture the seat.
Assuming equal turnout and zero defection the GOP needs to
switch 9% of Wirch’s votes.
The analysis is from the Recall True Vote Model.
District 12
Optimistic scenario: No fraud, no defections and equal turnout
2008 Share Turnout Mix Dem GOP
Obama 52.78% 60.00% 53.53% 95.00% 5.00%
McCain 45.82% 60.00% 46.47% 5.00% 95.00%
Total 53.18% 46.82%
4% vote switch No fraud
Dem share Democratic Share of Obama McCain Obama Turnout
of McCain 93% 95% 97% Turnout 58% 60% 62%
Democratic Share Democratic Share
7% 49.60% 50.59% 51.58% 58% 53.18% 53.94% 54.67%
5% 48.59% 49.58% 50.57% 60% 52.42% 53.18% 53.91%
3% 47.58% 48.57% 49.56% 62% 51.68% 52.44% 53.18%
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District 22
Optimistic scenario: No fraud, no
defections and equal turnout
2008 True Share Turnout Mix Dem GOP
Obama 57.26% 60.00% 58.02% 95.00% 5.00%
McCain 41.42% 60.00% 41.98% 5.00% 95.00%
Total 57.22% 42.78%
9% vote switch No fraud
Dem share Democratic Share of Obama McCain Obama Turnout
of McCain 93% 95% 97% Turnout 58% 60% 62%
Democratic Share Democratic Share
7% 49.16% 50.14% 51.12% 58% 57.22% 57.96% 58.67%
5% 48.14% 49.12% 50.10% 60% 56.48% 57.22% 57.94%
3% 47.12% 48.10% 49.08% 62% 55.75% 56.50% 57.22%