Wisconsin Recall: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

Sept 7, 2011

In each of the five Citizen Exit Polls conducted in two Wisconsin districts, the Democrats did much better than the official count (67.8% vs. 52.4% on average). Why the large discrepancies? Are the polls to be believed? This analysis provides a possible explanation, keeping in mind that it is based on a limited number of exit poll locations.

It is important to understand the difference between the Wisconsin Citizen exit polls and corporate sponsored state and national exit polls in prior elections. The Citizen polls had a very simple aim: to compare how respondents said they voted to the official count. Corporate state and national exit polls are designed to determine how various demographic groups voted. The National Exit Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six media giants that funds state and national exit polls. The NEP uses stratified sampling to select precinct locations that are representative. Final state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. It is also standard policy for the NEP to keep “unadjusted” exit poll data hidden from the public.

Exit Poll Discrepancies from the Recorded Vote

In three strong Democratic recall locations, Democratic exit poll shares (78.8%) were significantly higher than the vote counts (66.9%). Shorewood was 10.9% higher, Pardeeville 8.5% and Baraboo 15.8%. The True Vote Model (TVM) closely matched the recorded votes. Overall voter participation was 52%. If the vote counts were correct, 61% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans responded. Republican voters may have been reluctant to respond in Democratic locations. In that case, the exit polls overstated the true Democratic vote.

In the two strong Republican locations (Butler and Menomonee Falls), the Democrats had 43.1% in the exit polls compared to 31.5% in the count (16.5% higher in Butler, 11.0% in Menomonee).In the TVM, the Democrats did 11.0% and 8.3% better, respectively. Overall, just 33% of voters participated. If the vote counts were correct, then 45% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans responded. It is implausible that Democratic participation would be that much greater in strong GOP locations. Therefore, it is likely that the votes were miscounted and the exit polls were close to the True Vote.

The discrepancies could also have been due to a combination of vote miscounts and differential response. Assuming equal Democratic and Republican response rates, Democratic shares were 73.0% in Democratic locations (6.1% higher than the recorded share) and 35.4% in Republican locations (3.9% higher). The aggregate 55.5% Democratic True Vote share was a very close match to the 54.9% aggregate assuming equal Democratic and Republican response in each location.

Based on the results of the True Vote Model and the exit polls, it is very likely that the District 8 and 14 recall elections were stolen. The Republicans control the state senate by a 17-16 majority, but the Democrats should be in control by 18-15.

Exit Poll Refusal Rates

We define Exit Poll refusals as the difference between the total number of non-responders and the number of non-responders required to match the recorded vote. The refusal rate is the ratio of refusals to the recorded vote. The average Republican refusal rate in Democratic locations was 18.8%: Baraboo 16.6%, Pardeeville 12.9%, Shorewood 22.5%. In Republican locations, the rate was 5.6%: Menomonee Falls 5.9%, Butler 5.2%. Republican voters were four times more likely to refuse an exit poll interview in Democratic than in Republican locations.

Using Excel Solver to Determine Republican Exit Poll Response Required to Match Recorded Vote

The total Democratic exit poll response rate was 57%; the Republican rate was 30%. Democratic response exceeded Republican response in each of the five locations. What if the overall Republican response was also 57%? What would the response have to be in each location for the exit poll to match the recorded vote (52.4% Dem, 47.6% Rep)? Using the Excel Solver algorithm, the required Republican response was derived (Democratic response was held constant to the actual exit poll). Republican response was constrained to exceed Democratic response in Menomonee Falls and Butler. The required response rates were not plausible (see the table below). Republican response exceeded Democratic response in 4 of the 5 locations (including Democratic strongholds Pardeeville and Shorewood). In Pardeeville, 100% of Republican voters responded.

True Vote Model

The TVM requires an estimate of the True Vote in the previous election in order to determine a plausible mix of returning voters. In 2008, the Wisconsin presidential recorded vote was close to the TVM (Obama’s recorded share was 56.2%). It is obvious that using miscounted recorded votes from the previous election as a basis for pre-election forecasting or post-election analysis will produce fraudulent results in the current election.

These were the base case assumptions used in the TVM:

1) Equal percentage turnout of Obama/McCain voters.

2) Zero net defection: Democrats win 95% of returning Obama voters, Republicans win 95% of McCain voters.

3) New voters broke for the Democrats and Republicans in the same proportion as the 2008 recorded vote.

For each exit poll location, a sensitivity analysis table displays Democratic vote shares based on nine scenario combinations of returning Obama and McCain voters. The base case scenario is the central cell of the 3x3 table.

2004 Exit Polls

In 2004 there were 1480 exit poll precinct polling locations nationwide. More than 100,000 voters participated. To explain the average 6.5% exit poll discrepancy, the exit pollsters hypothesized that 56 Kerry voters participated for every 50 Bush voters. They provided no evidence for this and did not consider that the discrepancies may have been due to Election Fraud. The so-called reluctant Bush Responder (rBr) theory was refuted by the exit pollster's own data which showed that exit poll response was higher in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds. The NEP refused to release precinct data, claiming the need to protect voter "privacy". It's a canard; exit poll responders do not reveal their identity. There is no excuse for suppressing the release of unadjusted precinct exit poll data.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGUySGVQOW5BQWxZYWJ1TDJaVXJtNnc&hl=en_US#gid=20

Exit Poll Response Rates Required to Match Recorded Vote Shares (5-locations)

		Baraboo	Pardeeville	Shorewood	Men Falls	Butler	Total
RECORDED	Total	1148	712	1833	1956	597	6246
Count	Dem	695	426	1349	605	200	3275
	Rep	453	286	484	1351	397	2971
Share	Dem	60.5%	59.8%	73.6%	30.9%	33.5%	52.4%
	Rep	39.5%	40.2%	26.4%	69.1%	66.5%	47.6%
RESPONSE
Actual	Dem	364	299	845	303	63	1874
Adjusted	Rep	162	286	321	705	229	1702
	Total	526	585	1166	1008	292	3576
Actual	Dem	52.4%	70.2%	62.6%	50.1%	31.5%	57.3%
Adjusted	Rep	35.7%	100.0%	66.3%	52.1%	57.7%	57.3%
	Total	45.8%	82.2%	63.6%	51.5%	48.9%	57.3%
EXIT POLL
Recorded	Dem	76.3%	68.3%	84.5%	41.9%	50.0%	67.8%
	Rep	23.7%	31.7%	15.5%	58.1%	50.0%	32.2%
	WPE	31.5%	16.9%	21.8%	21.8%	33.0%	30.7%
Adjusted	Dem	69.2%	51.1%	72.5%	30.1%	21.6%	52.4%
Match	Rep	30.8%	48.9%	27.5%	69.9%	78.4%	47.6%
	WPE	17.4%	-17.4%	-2.3%	-1.7%	-23.9%	0.0%

Equal Location Exit Poll Response Rates

(Democratic adjusted 54.9% share is a close match to the True Vote 55.2% aggregate)

		Baraboo	Pardeeville	Shorewood	MenFalls	Butler	Total
RECORDED
Count	Dem	695	426	1,349	605	200	3,275
	Rep	453	286	484	1,351	397	2,971
	Total	1,148	712	1,833	1,956	597	6,246
Share	Dem	60.54%	59.83%	73.60%	30.93%	33.50%	52.4%
	Rep	39.46%	40.17%	26.40%	69.07%	66.50%	47.6%
EXIT POLL
Share	Dem	76.30%	68.30%	84.50%	41.90%	50%	67.8%
	Rep	23.70%	31.70%	15.50%	58.10%	50%	32.2%
	WPE	31.50%	16.90%	21.80%	21.80%	33%	30.7%
RESPONSE
Actual	Dem	364	299	845	303	63	1,874
Adjusted >	Rep	237	201	303	677	125	1,543
	Total	601	500	1,148	980	188	3,417
RESPONSE
Rate	Dem	52.37%	70.19%	62.64%	50.08%	31.50%	57.2%
Adjusted >	Rep	52.37%	70.19%	62.64%	50.08%	31.50%	51.9%
	Total	52.37%	70.19%	62.64%	50.08%	31.50%	54.7%
AdjustedShare	Dem	60.54%	59.83%	73.60%	30.93%	33.50%	54.9%
	Rep	39.46%	40.17%	26.40%	69.07%	66.50%	45.1%
	WPE	0.0%	0.0%	0,0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%

SUMMARY COMPARISON: Recorded Vote, True Vote Model and Exit Poll

District
	Democratic Locations						TVM Deviation
			Rec	TVM	Exit		Rec	ExitP
8	Shorewood.		73.6	72.9	84.5		-0.7	-11.6
14	Pardeeville		59.8	57.7	68.3		-2.1	-10.6
14	Baraboo.		60.5	62.1	76.3		1.6	-14.2
	Average		64.6	64.1	76.4		-0.5	-12.2
	Republican locations
8	Butler		33.5	44.5	50		11	-5.5
8	Menomonee Falls		30.9	39.2	41.9		8.3	-2.7
	Average		32.2	41.9	46		9.7	-4.1
VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD
Wards 9 – 12
					2011
	2008	Recorded	Share	Alive	Turnout	Vote	Mix	Dem	Rep
	Obama	2,039	74.4%	1,969	60%	1,181	64.3%	95.0%	5.0%
	McCain	674	24.6%	651	60%	390	21.3%	5.0%	95.0%
	DNV					265	14.4%	74.4%	25.6%
	Total	2,740	99.0%	2,620	60%	1,837	100%	72.9%	27.1%
								1,339	498
							Margin	841
							Recorded	73.6%	26.4%
								1,349	484
							Margin	865
				Dem share of Obama
			Dem %	90%	95%	100%
			McCain
				Dem Share
			10%	75.0%	78.3%	81.5%
			5%	69.7%	72.9%	76.1%
			0%	68.6%	71.8%	75.0%
VILLAGE OF PARDEEVILLE
Wards 1 – 3
					2011
	2008	Recorded	Share	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Dem	Rep
	Obama	293	57.9%	283	95%	269	38%	95.0%	5.0%
	McCain	209	41.2%	202	95%	192	27%	5.0%	95.0%
	DNV					251	35%	57.9%	42.1%
	Total	507	99.1%	485	95%	712	100%	57.7%	42.3%
								411	301
							Margin	109
							Recorded	59.8%	40.2%
								426	286
							Margin	140
				Dem share of Obama
			Dem %	90%	95%	100%
			McCain
				Dem Share
			10%	58.2%	60.1%	62.0%
			5%	55.8%	57.7%	59.6%
			0%	54.4%	56.3%	58.2%
CITY OF BARABOO
Wards 7-10					2011
	2008	Recorded	Share	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Dem	Rep
	Obama	548	62.20%	529	95%	502	44%	95.0%	5.0%
	McCain	317	36.10%	306	95%	291	25%	5.0%	95.0%
	DNV					355	31%	62.2%	37.8%
	Total	880	98.29%	835	95%	1,148	100%	62.1%	37.9%
								713	435
							Margin	277
							Recorded	60.5%	39.5%
								695	453
							Margin	242
					Dem share of Obama
			Dem %	90%	95%	100%
			McCain
					Dem Share
			10%	63.0%	65.2%	67.4%
			5%	59.9%	62.1%	64.3%
			0%	58.6%	60.8%	63.0%
VILLAGE OF BUTLER
Wards 1 - 3
					2011
	2008	Recorded	Share	Alive	Turnout	Vote	Mix	Dem	Rep
	Obama	441	42.7%	426	55%	234	39.3%	95.0%	5.0%
	McCain	569	55.1%	549	55%	302	50.5%	5.0%	95.0%
	DNV					62	10.3%	42.7%	57.3%
	Total	1,033	97.8%	975	55%	598	100.0%	44.1%	55.9%
								264	334
							Margin	-70
							Recorded	33.5%	66.5%
								200	397
							Margin	-197
					Dem share of Obama
			Dem %	90%	95%	100%
			McCain
					Dem Share
			10%	43.6%	45.5%	47.5%
			5%	42.2%	44.1%	46.1%
			0%	39.6%	41.6%	43.6%
VILLAGE OF MENOMONEE FALLS
Ward14, 15 & 21
					2011
	2008	Record	Share	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Dem	Rep
	Obama	997	37.7%	963	70%	674	34.5%	95.0%	5.0%
	McCain	1,618	61.2%	1,562	70%	1,094	55.9%	5.0%	95.0%
	DNV					188	9.6%	37.7%	62.3%
	Total	2,644	98.9%	2,525	70%	1,956	100.0%	39.2%	60.8%
								766	1,190
							Margin	-424
							Recorded	30.9%	69.1%
								605	1,351
							Margin	-746
				Dem share of Obama
			Dem %	90%	95%	100%
			McCain
				Dem share
			10%	38.1%	39.8%	41.5%
			5%	37.4%	39.2%	40.9%
			0%	34.6%	36.4%	38.1%

		Polling Locations	Vote Count	Vote Count	Vote Count	Vote Share	Vote Share	Exit Poll	Exit Poll	Exit Poll	Exit Poll	Exit Poll	EP-Vote		EP/Vote	EP/Vote	Response Rate	Total	Total
			Rep	Dem	Total	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Total	Rep	Dem	Dem	WPE	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Response
Democratic	14	Baraboo 7, 8, 9, 10	453	695	1148	39.5%	60.5%	113	364	477	23.7%	76.3%	15.8%	31.5%	60.0%	126.1%	24.9%	52.4%	41.6%
	14	Pardeeville 1, 2, 3	286	426	712	40.2%	59.8%	139	299	438	31.7%	68.3%	8.4%	16.9%	79.0%	114.1%	48.6%	70.2%	61.5%
	8	Shorewood 9,10,11,12	484	1349	1833	26.4%	73.6%	155	845	1000	15.5%	84.5%	10.9%	21.8%	58.7%	114.8%	32.0%	62.6%	54.6%
		Total Dem	1223	2470	3693	33.1%	66.9%	407	1508	1915	21.3%	78.8%	11.9%	23.7%	64.2%	117.7%	33.3%	61.1%	51.9%
Republican
	8	Menomonee Falls 14,15,21	1351	605	1956	69.1%	30.9%	421	303	724	58.2%	41.9%	10.9%	21.8%	84.2%	135.3%	31.2%	50.1%	37.0%
	8	Butler 1,2,3	397	200	597	66.5%	33.5%	63	63	126	50.0%	50.0%	16.5%	33.0%	75.2%	149.3%	15.9%	31.5%	21.1%
		Total Rep	1748	805	2553	68.5%	31.5%	484	366	850	56.9%	43.1%	11.5%	23.1%	83.2%	136.6%	27.7%	45.5%	33.3%
		Grand Total	2971	3275	6246	47.6%	52.4%	891	1874	2765	32.2%	67.8%	15.3%	30.7%	67.8%	129.3%	30.0%	57.2%	44.3%
Adjusted Exit Poll Response Rates: (Republican response rate equal to Democratic)