Wisconsin Recall: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

 

Richard Charnin

 

Sept 7, 2011

 

 

In each of the five Citizen Exit Polls conducted in two Wisconsin districts, the Democrats did much better than the official count (67.8% vs. 52.4% on average). Why the large discrepancies? Are the polls to be believed? This analysis provides a possible explanation, keeping in mind that it is based on a limited number of exit poll locations.

 

It is important to understand the difference between the Wisconsin Citizen exit polls and corporate sponsored state and national exit polls in prior elections.  The Citizen polls had a very simple aim:  to compare how respondents said they voted to the official count.  Corporate state and national exit polls are designed to determine how various demographic groups voted. The National Exit Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six media giants that funds state and national exit polls. The NEP uses stratified sampling to select precinct locations that are representative. Final state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. It is also standard policy for the NEP to keep “unadjusted” exit poll data hidden from the public.

 

Exit Poll Discrepancies from the Recorded Vote

 

In three strong Democratic recall locations, Democratic exit poll shares (78.8%) were significantly higher than the vote counts (66.9%). Shorewood was 10.9% higher, Pardeeville 8.5% and Baraboo 15.8%. The True Vote Model (TVM) closely matched the recorded votes. Overall voter participation was 52%. If the vote counts were correct, 61% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans responded. Republican voters may have been reluctant to respond in Democratic locations. In that case, the exit polls overstated the true Democratic vote.

 

In the two strong Republican locations (Butler and Menomonee Falls), the Democrats had 43.1% in the exit polls compared to 31.5% in the count (16.5% higher in Butler, 11.0% in Menomonee).In the TVM, the Democrats did 11.0% and 8.3% better, respectively. Overall, just 33% of voters participated. If the vote counts were correct, then 45% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans responded. It is implausible that Democratic participation would be that much greater in strong GOP locations. Therefore, it is likely that the votes were miscounted and the exit polls were close to the True Vote.

 

The discrepancies could also have been due to a combination of vote miscounts and differential response.  Assuming equal Democratic and Republican response rates, Democratic shares were 73.0% in Democratic locations (6.1% higher than the recorded share) and 35.4% in Republican locations (3.9% higher). The aggregate 55.5% Democratic True Vote share was a very close match to the 54.9% aggregate assuming equal Democratic and Republican response in each location.

 

Based on the results of the True Vote Model and the exit polls, it is very likely that the District 8 and 14 recall elections were stolen. The Republicans control the state senate by a 17-16 majority, but the Democrats should be in control by 18-15.

 

Exit Poll Refusal Rates

 

We define Exit Poll refusals as the  difference between the total number of non-responders and the number of non-responders required to match the recorded vote. The refusal rate is the ratio of refusals to the recorded vote. The average Republican refusal rate in Democratic locations was 18.8%: Baraboo 16.6%, Pardeeville 12.9%, Shorewood 22.5%. In Republican locations, the rate was 5.6%: Menomonee Falls 5.9%, Butler 5.2%. Republican voters were four times more likely to refuse an exit poll interview in Democratic than in Republican locations.

 

Using Excel Solver to Determine Republican Exit Poll Response Required to Match Recorded Vote

 

The total Democratic exit poll response rate was 57%; the Republican rate was 30%. Democratic response exceeded Republican response in each of the five locations. What if the overall Republican response was also 57%? What would the response have to be in each location for the exit poll to match the recorded vote (52.4% Dem, 47.6% Rep)? Using the Excel Solver algorithm, the required Republican response was derived (Democratic response was held constant to the actual exit poll).  Republican response was constrained to exceed Democratic response in Menomonee Falls and Butler. The required response rates were not plausible (see the table below). Republican response exceeded Democratic response in 4 of the 5 locations (including Democratic strongholds Pardeeville and Shorewood). In Pardeeville, 100% of Republican voters responded.

 

True Vote Model

 

The TVM requires an estimate of the True Vote in the previous election in order to determine a plausible mix of returning voters. In 2008, the Wisconsin presidential recorded vote was close to the TVM (Obama’s recorded share was 56.2%). It is obvious that using miscounted recorded votes from the previous election as a basis for pre-election forecasting or post-election analysis will produce fraudulent results in the current election.

 

These were the base case assumptions used in the TVM: 

1) Equal percentage turnout of Obama/McCain voters.

2) Zero net defection: Democrats win 95% of returning Obama voters, Republicans win 95% of McCain voters.

3) New voters broke for the Democrats and Republicans in the same proportion as the 2008 recorded vote.

 

For each exit poll location, a sensitivity analysis table displays Democratic vote shares based on nine scenario combinations of returning Obama and McCain voters. The base case scenario is the central cell of the 3x3 table.

 

2004 Exit Polls

 

In 2004 there were 1480 exit poll precinct polling locations nationwide. More than 100,000 voters participated. To explain the average 6.5% exit poll discrepancy, the exit pollsters hypothesized that 56 Kerry voters participated for every 50 Bush voters. They provided no evidence for this and did not consider that the discrepancies may have been due to Election Fraud. The so-called reluctant Bush Responder (rBr) theory was refuted by the exit pollster's own data which showed that exit poll response was higher in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds. The NEP refused to release precinct data, claiming the need to protect voter "privacy". It's a canard; exit poll responders do not reveal their identity. There is no excuse for suppressing the release of unadjusted precinct exit poll data.

 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGUySGVQOW5BQWxZYWJ1TDJaVXJtNnc&hl=en_US#gid=20

 

Exit Poll Response Rates Required to Match Recorded Vote Shares (5-locations)

 

 

 

Baraboo

Pardeeville

Shorewood

Men Falls

Butler

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECORDED

Total

1148

712

1833

1956

597

6246

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Count

Dem

695

426

1349

605

200

3275

 

Rep

453

286

484

1351

397

2971

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

Dem

60.5%

59.8%

73.6%

30.9%

33.5%

52.4%

 

Rep

39.5%

40.2%

26.4%

69.1%

66.5%

47.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RESPONSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual

Dem

364

299

845

303

63

1874

Adjusted

Rep

162

286

321

705

229

1702

 

Total

526

585

1166

1008

292

3576

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual

Dem

52.4%

70.2%

62.6%

50.1%

31.5%

57.3%

Adjusted

Rep

35.7%

100.0%

66.3%

52.1%

57.7%

57.3%

 

Total

45.8%

82.2%

63.6%

51.5%

48.9%

57.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXIT POLL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

Dem

76.3%

68.3%

84.5%

41.9%

50.0%

67.8%

 

Rep

23.7%

31.7%

15.5%

58.1%

50.0%

32.2%

 

WPE

31.5%

16.9%

21.8%

21.8%

33.0%

30.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted

Dem

69.2%

51.1%

72.5%

30.1%

21.6%

52.4%

Match

Rep

30.8%

48.9%

27.5%

69.9%

78.4%

47.6%

 

WPE

17.4%

-17.4%

-2.3%

-1.7%

-23.9%

0.0%

 

 

Equal Location Exit Poll Response Rates

(Democratic adjusted 54.9% share is a close match to the True Vote 55.2% aggregate)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baraboo

Pardeeville

Shorewood

MenFalls

Butler

Total

RECORDED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Count

Dem

695

426

1,349

605

200

3,275

 

Rep

453

286

484

1,351

397

2,971

 

Total

1,148

712

1,833

1,956

597

6,246

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

Dem

60.54%

59.83%

73.60%

30.93%

33.50%

52.4%

 

Rep

39.46%

40.17%

26.40%

69.07%

66.50%

47.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXIT POLL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share

Dem

76.30%

68.30%

84.50%

41.90%

50%

67.8%

 

Rep

23.70%

31.70%

15.50%

58.10%

50%

32.2%

 

WPE

31.50%

16.90%

21.80%

21.80%

33%

30.7%

RESPONSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual

Dem

364

299

845

303

63

1,874

Adjusted >

Rep

237

201

303

677

125

1,543

 

Total

601

500

1,148

980

188

3,417

RESPONSE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rate

Dem

52.37%

70.19%

62.64%

50.08%

31.50%

57.2%

Adjusted >

Rep

52.37%

70.19%

62.64%

50.08%

31.50%

51.9%

 

Total

52.37%

70.19%

62.64%

50.08%

31.50%

54.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AdjustedShare

Dem

60.54%

59.83%

73.60%

30.93%

33.50%

54.9%

 

Rep

39.46%

40.17%

26.40%

69.07%

66.50%

45.1%

 

WPE

0.0%

0.0%

0,0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.8%

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY COMPARISON: Recorded Vote, True Vote Model and Exit Poll

 

District

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Locations

 

 

 

TVM Deviation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rec

TVM

Exit

 

Rec

ExitP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Shorewood.

73.6

72.9

84.5

 

-0.7

-11.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

Pardeeville

59.8

57.7

68.3

 

-2.1

-10.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

Baraboo.

 

60.5

62.1

76.3

 

1.6

-14.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

64.6

64.1

76.4

 

-0.5

-12.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republican locations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Butler

 

33.5

44.5

50

 

11

-5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Menomonee Falls

30.9

39.2

41.9

 

8.3

-2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

       

32.2

41.9

46

 

9.7

-4.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wards 9 – 12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

    Recorded

Share

Alive

Turnout

Vote

Mix

Dem

Rep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

2,039

74.4%

1,969

60%

1,181

64.3%

95.0%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

674

24.6%

651

60%

390

21.3%

5.0%

95.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

 

 

 

 

265

14.4%

74.4%

25.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

2,740

99.0%

2,620

60%

1,837

100%

72.9%

27.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1,339

498

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

841

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

73.6%

26.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1,349

484

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

865

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share of Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem %

90%

95%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

75.0%

78.3%

81.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5%

69.7%

72.9%

76.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

68.6%

71.8%

75.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VILLAGE OF PARDEEVILLE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wards 1 – 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

Recorded

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Dem

Rep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

293

57.9%

283

95%

269

38%

95.0%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

209

41.2%

202

95%

192

27%

5.0%

95.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

 

 

 

 

251

35%

57.9%

42.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

507

99.1%

485

95%

712

100%

57.7%

42.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

411

301

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

109

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

59.8%

40.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

426

286

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

140

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share of Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem %

90%

95%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

58.2%

60.1%

62.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5%

55.8%

57.7%

59.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

54.4%

56.3%

58.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CITY OF BARABOO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wards 7-10

 

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

Recorded

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Dem

Rep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

548

62.20%

529

95%

502

44%

95.0%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

317

36.10%

306

95%

291

25%

5.0%

95.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

 

 

 

 

355

31%

62.2%

37.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

880

98.29%

835

95%

1,148

100%

62.1%

37.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

713

435

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

277

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

60.5%

39.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

695

453

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

242

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share of Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem %

90%

95%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

63.0%

65.2%

67.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5%

59.9%

62.1%

64.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

58.6%

60.8%

63.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VILLAGE OF BUTLER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Wards 1 - 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

    Recorded

Share

Alive

Turnout

Vote

Mix

Dem

Rep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

441

42.7%

426

55%

234

39.3%

95.0%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

569

55.1%

549

55%

302

50.5%

5.0%

95.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

 

 

 

 

62

10.3%

42.7%

57.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

1,033

97.8%

975

55%

598

100.0%

44.1%

55.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

264

334

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

33.5%

66.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

200

397

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-197

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share of Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem %

90%

95%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

43.6%

45.5%

47.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5%

42.2%

44.1%

46.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

39.6%

41.6%

43.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VILLAGE OF MENOMONEE FALLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ward14, 15 & 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

Record

Share

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Mix

Dem

Rep

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obama

997

37.7%

963

70%

674

34.5%

95.0%

5.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

1,618

61.2%

1,562

70%

1,094

55.9%

5.0%

95.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DNV

 

 

 

 

188

9.6%

37.7%

62.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

2,644

98.9%

2,525

70%

1,956

100.0%

39.2%

60.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

766

1,190

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-424

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recorded

30.9%

69.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

605

1,351

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

-746

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share of Obama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem %

90%

95%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dem share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

38.1%

39.8%

41.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5%

37.4%

39.2%

40.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

34.6%

36.4%

38.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Polling Locations

Vote Count

Vote Count

Vote Count

Vote Share

Vote Share

Exit Poll

Exit Poll

Exit Poll

Exit Poll

Exit Poll

EP-Vote

 

EP/Vote

EP/Vote

Response Rate

Total

Total

 

 

 

Rep

Dem

Total

Rep

Dem

Rep

Dem

Total

Rep

Dem

Dem

WPE

Rep

  Dem

Rep

Dem

Response

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic

14

Baraboo 7, 8, 9, 10

453

695

1148

39.5%

60.5%

113

364

477

23.7%

76.3%

15.8%

31.5%

60.0%

126.1%

24.9%

52.4%

41.6%

 

14

Pardeeville 1, 2, 3

286

426

712

40.2%

59.8%

139

299

438

31.7%

68.3%

8.4%

16.9%

79.0%

114.1%

48.6%

70.2%

61.5%

 

8

Shorewood 9,10,11,12

484

1349

1833

26.4%

73.6%

155

845

1000

15.5%

84.5%

10.9%

21.8%

58.7%

114.8%

32.0%

62.6%

54.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Dem

1223

2470

3693

33.1%

66.9%

407

1508

1915

21.3%

78.8%

11.9%

23.7%

64.2%

117.7%

33.3%

61.1%

51.9%

Republican

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Menomonee Falls  14,15,21

1351

605

1956

69.1%

30.9%

421

303

724

58.2%

41.9%

10.9%

21.8%

84.2%

135.3%

31.2%

50.1%

37.0%

 

8

Butler  1,2,3

397

200

597

66.5%

33.5%

63

63

126

50.0%

50.0%

16.5%

33.0%

75.2%

149.3%

15.9%

31.5%

21.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Rep

1748

805

2553

68.5%

31.5%

484

366

850

56.9%

43.1%

11.5%

23.1%

83.2%

136.6%

27.7%

45.5%

33.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grand Total

2971

3275

6246

47.6%

52.4%

891

1874

2765

32.2%

67.8%

15.3%

30.7%

67.8%

129.3%

30.0%

57.2%

44.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Exit Poll Response Rates:

(Republican response rate equal to Democratic)