Wisconsin County 2011 Recorded Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 26, 2011

This is a comparison of the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the 2008 presidential elections.

Prosser leads by 7,000 out of nearly 1.5 million votes.

In 2008, Obama had 56.2% of the recorded vote, a 415,000 vote margin out of nearly 3 million votes.

Considering the heavy union turnout, how did Kloppenburg’s vote share decline by 6.5% from Obama’s?

Kloppenburg did better than Obama in 10 small counties (total 50,000 votes) but worse in 10 large counties (550,000 votes).

In Milwaukee County, Obama had 67.3%, Kloppenburg 56.4% of 229,000 votes. Why the 10.9% decline?

In Waukesha County, Obama had 36.6%, Kloppenburg 26.2% of 125,000 votes. Why the 10.4% decline?

In Waukesha, McCain defeated Obama by 59,813 votes out of 233,435 recorded.

Prosser defeated Kloppenburg by a nearly identical 59,505 votes out of just 125,070.

Quite a gain.

http://elections.state.wi.us/docview.asp?docid=15385&locid=47 http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/County%20results_4.5.11.supreme_recount%20pending.pdf

1988-2008 True Vote Model

								Correlation	vs. Obama	0.97			0.86		0.91
	2008							Correlation	vs. McCain	0.77			1.00		0.74
Correl	1.00	0.98	0.29	0.94	0.05	0.51	-0.27		Correl	0.96	0.06	-0.26	0.93	-0.06	0.83	0.34
	Total	Obama		McCain		Other			Total	Kloppenburg		Chg ‘08	Prosser		Other
	2,983,745	1,677,211	56.2%	1,262,393	42.3%	44,141	1.5%		1,498,880	745,007	49.70%	-6.5%	752,323	50.19%	1,550	0.10%
Adams	10,459	5,806	55.5%	3,974	38.0%	679	6.5%		4,957	2,557	51.6%	-3.9%	2,393	48.3%	7	0.14%
Ashland	9,056	5,818	64.2%	2,634	29.1%	604	6.7%		4,652	3,266	70.2%	6.0%	1,383	29.7%	3	0.06%
Barron	24,648	12,078	49.0%	10,457	42.4%	2,113	8.6%		9,352	4,640	49.6%	0.6%	4,709	50.4%	3	0.03%
Bayfield	11,227	5,972	53.2%	3,365	30.0%	1,890	16.8%		5,912	3,954	66.9%	13.7%	1,957	33.1%	1	0.02%
Brown	125,033	67,269	53.8%	55,854	44.7%	1,910	1.5%		60,628	27,207	44.9%	-8.9%	33,319	55.0%	102	0.17%
Buffalo	7,608	3,949	51.9%	2,923	38.4%	736	9.7%		3,297	1,608	48.8%	-3.1%	1,686	51.1%	3	0.09%
Burnett	9,645	4,337	45.0%	4,200	43.5%	1,108	11.5%		3,610	1,659	46.0%	1.0%	1,950	54.0%	1	0.03%
Calumet	27,324	13,295	48.7%	12,722	46.6%	1,307	4.8%		12,147	4,643	38.2%	-10.4%	7,500	61.7%	4	0.03%
Chippewa	30,999	16,239	52.4%	13,492	43.5%	1,268	4.1%		14,090	7,221	51.2%	-1.1%	6,856	48.7%	13	0.09%
Clark	14,769	7,454	50.5%	6,383	43.2%	932	6.3%		7,397	3,065	41.4%	-9.0%	4,327	58.5%	5	0.07%
Columbia	33,326	16,661	50.0%	12,193	36.6%	4,472	13.4%		16,275	8,959	55.0%	5.1%	7,302	44.9%	14	0.09%
Crawford	12,496	4,987	39.9%	2,830	22.6%	4,679	37.4%		4,117	2,428	59.0%	19.1%	1,689	41.0%	0	0.00%
Dane	283,791	205,984	72.6%	73,065	25.7%	4,742	1.7%		182,305	133,565	73.3%	0.7%	48,636	26.7%	104	0.06%
Dodge	43,451	19,183	44.1%	23,015	53.0%	1,253	2.9%		21,904	8,519	38.9%	-5.3%	13,374	61.1%	11	0.05%
Door	18,303	10,142	55.4%	7,112	38.9%	1,049	5.7%		9,878	4,662	47.2%	-8.2%	5,200	52.6%	16	0.16%
Douglas	25,392	15,830	62.3%	7,835	30.9%	1,727	6.8%		12,494	8,674	69.4%	7.1%	3,814	30.5%	6	0.05%
Dunn	23,933	13,002	54.3%	9,566	40.0%	1,365	5.7%		9,237	5,158	55.8%	1.5%	4,075	44.1%	4	0.04%
EauClaire	55,745	33,146	59.5%	20,959	37.6%	1,640	2.9%		27,395	15,919	58.1%	-1.4%	11,416	41.7%	60	0.22%
Florence	3,428	1,134	33.1%	1,512	44.1%	782	22.8%		1,282	483	37.7%	4.6%	799	62.3%	0	0.00%
FonduLac	52,370	23,463	44.8%	28,164	53.8%	743	1.4%		26,121	10,180	39.0%	-5.8%	15,931	61.0%	10	0.04%
Forest	5,060	2,673	52.8%	1,963	38.8%	424	8.4%		2,729	1,196	43.8%	-9.0%	1,531	56.1%	2	0.07%
Grant	24,765	14,875	60.1%	9,068	36.6%	822	3.3%		9,986	5,697	57.0%	-3.0%	4,283	42.9%	6	0.06%
Green	18,830	11,502	61.1%	6,730	35.7%	598	3.2%		10,761	5,860	54.5%	-6.6%	4,883	45.4%	18	0.17%
GreenLake	9,743	4,000	41.1%	5,393	55.4%	350	3.6%		5,826	2,049	35.2%	-5.9%	3,777	64.8%	0	0.00%
Iowa	12,150	7,987	65.7%	3,829	31.5%	334	2.7%		6,378	3,919	61.4%	-4.3%	2,455	38.5%	4	0.06%
Iron	4,181	1,914	45.8%	1,464	35.0%	803	19.2%		1,697	937	55.2%	9.4%	760	44.8%	0	0.00%
Jackson	10,069	5,572	55.3%	3,552	35.3%	945	9.4%		4,910	2,686	54.7%	-0.6%	2,224	45.3%	0	0.00%
Jefferson	44,706	21,448	48.0%	21,096	47.2%	2,162	4.8%		23,013	9,741	42.3%	-5.6%	13,239	57.5%	33	0.14%
Juneau	13,048	6,186	47.4%	5,148	39.5%	1,714	13.1%		5,235	2,696	51.5%	4.1%	2,534	48.4%	5	0.10%
Kenosha	79,956	45,836	57.3%	31,609	39.5%	2,511	3.1%		30,651	16,207	52.9%	-4.5%	14,388	46.9%	56	0.18%
Kewaunee	11,895	5,902	49.6%	4,711	39.6%	1,282	10.8%		5,741	2,405	41.9%	-7.7%	3,331	58.0%	5	0.09%
LaCrosse	63,472	38,524	60.7%	23,701	37.3%	1,247	2.0%		29,518	17,379	58.9%	-1.8%	12,124	41.1%	15	0.05%
Lafayette	8,295	4,732	57.0%	2,984	36.0%	579	7.0%		4,216	2,185	51.8%	-5.2%	2,030	48.1%	1	0.02%
Langlade	11,479	5,182	45.1%	5,081	44.3%	1,216	10.6%		4,558	1,895	41.6%	-3.6%	2,663	58.4%	0	0.00%
Lincoln	17,248	8,424	48.8%	6,519	37.8%	2,305	13.4%		7,139	3,549	49.7%	0.9%	3,578	50.1%	12	0.17%
Manitowoc	43,976	22,428	51.0%	19,234	43.7%	2,314	5.3%		19,971	7,752	38.8%	-12.2%	12,211	61.1%	8	0.04%
Marathon	68,398	36,367	53.2%	30,345	44.4%	1,686	2.5%		31,990	14,823	46.3%	-6.8%	17,131	53.6%	36	0.11%
Marinette	21,385	11,195	52.3%	9,726	45.5%	464	2.2%		9,064	4,083	45.0%	-7.3%	4,980	54.9%	1	0.01%
Marquette	13,780	4,068	29.5%	3,654	26.5%	6,058	44.0%		3,949	1,726	43.7%	14.2%	2,220	56.2%	3	0.08%
Menominee	7,664	1,257	16.4%	185	2.4%	6,222	81.2%		382	241	63.1%	46.7%	141	36.9%	0	0.00%
Milwaukee	475,480	319,819	67.3%	149,445	31.4%	6,216	1.3%		228,954	129,042	56.4%	-10.9%	99,342	43.4%	570	0.25%
Monroe	19,438	10,198	52.5%	8,666	44.6%	574	3.0%		9,218	4,692	50.9%	-1.6%	4,512	48.9%	14	0.15%
Oconto	20,950	9,927	47.4%	8,755	41.8%	2,268	10.8%		9,068	3,859	42.6%	-4.8%	5,206	57.4%	3	0.03%
Oneida	24,133	11,907	49.3%	9,630	39.9%	2,596	10.8%		10,665	5,135	48.1%	-1.2%	5,515	51.7%	15	0.14%
Outagamie	92,230	50,294	54.5%	39,677	43.0%	2,259	2.4%		43,673	18,878	43.2%	-11.3%	24,769	56.7%	26	0.06%
Ozaukee	53,910	20,579	38.2%	32,172	59.7%	1,159	2.1%		29,157	8,296	28.5%	-9.7%	20,845	71.5%	16	0.05%
Pepin	4,748	2,102	44.3%	1,616	34.0%	1,030	21.7%		1,865	983	52.7%	8.4%	882	47.3%	0	0.00%
Pierce	23,387	11,803	50.5%	9,812	42.0%	1,772	7.6%		8,964	4,904	54.7%	4.2%	4,053	45.2%	7	0.08%
Polk	23,612	10,876	46.1%	11,282	47.8%	1,454	6.2%		9,104	4,438	48.7%	2.7%	4,662	51.2%	4	0.04%
Portage	40,876	24,817	60.7%	13,810	33.8%	2,249	5.5%		20,283	12,140	59.9%	-0.9%	8,121	40.0%	22	0.11%
Price	9,585	4,559	47.6%	3,461	36.1%	1,565	16.3%		4,192	2,025	48.3%	0.7%	2,165	51.6%	2	0.05%
Racine	102,029	53,408	52.3%	45,954	45.0%	2,667	2.6%		50,772	22,518	44.4%	-8.0%	28,204	55.6%	50	0.10%
Richland	9,890	5,041	51.0%	3,298	33.3%	1,551	15.7%		3,983	2,186	54.9%	3.9%	1,797	45.1%	0	0.00%
Rock	79,780	50,529	63.3%	27,364	34.3%	1,887	2.4%		36,797	22,145	60.2%	-3.2%	14,626	39.7%	26	0.07%
Rusk	7,840	3,855	49.2%	3,253	41.5%	732	9.3%		4,133	1,941	47.0%	-2.2%	2,189	53.0%	3	0.07%
Sauk	31,039	18,617	60.0%	11,562	37.2%	860	2.8%		16,367	9,188	56.1%	-3.8%	7,171	43.8%	8	0.05%
Sawyer	10,288	4,765	46.3%	4,199	40.8%	1,324	12.9%		4,182	2,059	49.2%	2.9%	2,122	50.7%	1	0.02%
Shawano	21,807	10,259	47.0%	9,538	43.7%	2,010	9.2%		9,152	3,613	39.5%	-7.6%	5,534	60.5%	5	0.05%
Sheboygan	63,111	30,395	48.2%	30,801	48.8%	1,915	3.0%		30,961	11,411	36.9%	-11.3%	19,534	63.1%	16	0.05%
St. Croix	45,203	21,177	46.8%	22,837	50.5%	1,189	2.6%		16,235	7,953	49.0%	2.1%	8,272	51.0%	10	0.06%
Taylor	9,776	4,563	46.7%	4,586	46.9%	627	6.4%		5,949	2,290	38.5%	-8.2%	3,652	61.4%	7	0.12%
Trempealeau	13,559	8,321	61.4%	4,808	35.5%	430	3.2%		6,214	3,330	53.6%	-7.8%	2,878	46.3%	6	0.10%
Vernon	14,279	8,463	59.3%	5,367	37.6%	449	3.1%		7,911	4,331	54.7%	-4.5%	3,578	45.2%	2	0.03%
Vilas	14,626	6,491	44.4%	7,055	48.2%	1,080	7.4%		7,032	2,820	40.1%	-4.3%	4,204	59.8%	8	0.11%
Walworth	51,501	24,177	46.9%	25,485	49.5%	1,839	3.6%		23,197	8,930	38.5%	-8.4%	14,236	61.4%	31	0.13%
Washburn	12,481	4,693	37.6%	4,303	34.5%	3,485	27.9%		4,724	2,453	51.9%	14.3%	2,270	48.1%	1	0.02%
Washington	77,144	25,719	33.3%	47,729	61.9%	3,696	4.8%		40,693	9,902	24.3%	-9.0%	30,777	75.6%	14	0.03%
Waukesha	233,435	85,339	36.6%	145,152	62.2%	2,944	1.3%		125,070	32,758	26.2%	-10.4%	92,263	73.8%	49	0.04%
Waupaca	27,286	12,952	47.5%	12,232	44.8%	2,102	7.7%		12,150	4,938	40.6%	-6.8%	7,205	59.3%	7	0.06%
Waushara	14,174	5,868	41.4%	5,770	40.7%	2,536	17.9%		5,698	2,300	40.4%	-1.0%	3,395	59.6%	3	0.05%
Winnebago	88,438	48,167	54.5%	37,946	42.9%	2,325	2.6%		39,628	18,887	47.7%	-6.8%	20,701	52.2%	40	0.10%
Wood	39,052	21,710	55.6%	16,581	42.5%	761	1.9%		18,125	9,269	51.1%	-4.5%	8,844	48.8%	12	0.07%

Kloppenburg 10 Best Counties based on increased vote share from 2008

	Total	Obama		McCain		Other		Total	Kloppenburg		Change	Prosser		Other
Ashland	9,056	5,818	64.2%	2,634	29.1%	604	6.7%	4,652	3,266	70.2%	6.0%	1,383	29.7%	3	0.06%
Bayfield	11,227	5,972	53.2%	3,365	30.0%	1,890	16.8%	5,912	3,954	66.9%	13.7%	1,957	33.1%	1	0.02%
Columbia	33,326	16,661	50.0%	12,193	36.6%	4,472	13.4%	16,275	8,959	55.0%	5.1%	7,302	44.9%	14	0.09%
Crawford	12,496	4,987	39.9%	2,830	22.6%	4,679	37.4%	4,117	2,428	59.0%	19.1%	1,689	41.0%	0	0.00%
Douglas	25,392	15,830	62.3%	7,835	30.9%	1,727	6.8%	12,494	8,674	69.4%	7.1%	3,814	30.5%	6	0.05%
Iron	4,181	1,914	45.8%	1,464	35.0%	803	19.2%	1,697	937	55.2%	9.4%	760	44.8%	0	0.00%
Marquette	13,780	4,068	29.5%	3,654	26.5%	6,058	44.0%	3,949	1,726	43.7%	14.2%	2,220	56.2%	3	0.08%
Menominee	7,664	1,257	16.4%	185	2.4%	6,222	81.2%	382	241	63.1%	46.7%	141	36.9%	0	0.00%
Pepin	4,748	2,102	44.3%	1,616	34.0%	1,030	21.7%	1,865	983	52.7%	8.4%	882	47.3%	0	0.00%
Washburn	12,481	4,693	37.6%	4,303	34.5%	3,485	27.9%	4,724	2,453	51.9%	14.3%	2,270	48.1%	1	0.02%

Kloppenburg 10 Worst Counties based on decreased vote share from 2008

	Total	Obama		McCain		Other		Total	Kloppenburg		Change	Prosser		Other
Calumet	27,324	13,295	48.7%	12,722	46.6%	1,307	4.8%	12,147	4,643	38.2%	-10.4%	7,500	61.7%	4	0.03%
Clark	14,769	7,454	50.5%	6,383	43.2%	932	6.3%	7,397	3,065	41.4%	-9.0%	4,327	58.5%	5	0.07%
Forest	5,060	2,673	52.8%	1,963	38.8%	424	8.4%	2,729	1,196	43.8%	-9.0%	1,531	56.1%	2	0.07%
Manitowoc	43,976	22,428	51.0%	19,234	43.7%	2,314	5.3%	19,971	7,752	38.8%	-12.2%	12,211	61.1%	8	0.04%
Milwaukee	475,480	319,819	67.3%	149,445	31.4%	6,216	1.3%	228,954	129,042	56.4%	-10.9%	99,342	43.4%	570	0.25%
Outagamie	92,230	50,294	54.5%	39,677	43.0%	2,259	2.4%	43,673	18,878	43.2%	-11.3%	24,769	56.7%	26	0.06%
Ozaukee	53,910	20,579	38.2%	32,172	59.7%	1,159	2.1%	29,157	8,296	28.5%	-9.7%	20,845	71.5%	16	0.05%
Sheboygan	63,111	30,395	48.2%	30,801	48.8%	1,915	3.0%	30,961	11,411	36.9%	-11.3%	19,534	63.1%	16	0.05%
Washington	77,144	25,719	33.3%	47,729	61.9%	3,696	4.8%	40,693	9,902	24.3%	-9.0%	30,777	75.6%	14	0.03%
Waukesha	233,435	85,339	36.6%	145,152	62.2%	2,944	1.3%	125,070	32,758	26.2%	-10.4%	92,263	73.8%	49	0.04%

Top 10 Counties by Voting Population

	Total	Obama		McCain		Other		Total	Kloppenburg		Change	Prosser		Other
Total	2,983,745	1,677,211	56.2%	1,262,393	42.3%	44,141	1.5%	1,498,880	745,007	49.70%	-6.5%	752,323	50.19%	1,550	0.10%
Brown	125,033	67,269	53.8%	55,854	44.7%	1,910	1.5%	60,628	27,207	44.9%	-8.9%	33,319	55.0%	102	0.17%
Dane	283,791	205,984	72.6%	73,065	25.7%	4,742	1.7%	182,305	133,565	73.3%	0.7%	48,636	26.7%	104	0.06%
Milwaukee	475,480	319,819	67.3%	149,445	31.4%	6,216	1.3%	228,954	129,042	56.4%	-10.9%	99,342	43.4%	570	0.25%
Outagamie	92,230	50,294	54.5%	39,677	43.0%	2,259	2.4%	43,673	18,878	43.2%	-11.3%	24,769	56.7%	26	0.06%
Racine	102,029	53,408	52.3%	45,954	45.0%	2,667	2.6%	50,772	22,518	44.4%	-8.0%	28,204	55.6%	50	0.10%
Rock	79,780	50,529	63.3%	27,364	34.3%	1,887	2.4%	36,797	22,145	60.2%	-3.2%	14,626	39.7%	26	0.07%
Washington	77,144	25,719	33.3%	47,729	61.9%	3,696	4.8%	40,693	9,902	24.3%	-9.0%	30,777	75.6%	14	0.03%
Waukesha	233,435	85,339	36.6%	145,152	62.2%	2,944	1.3%	125,070	32,758	26.2%	-10.4%	92,263	73.8%	49	0.04%
Winnebago	88,438	48,167	54.5%	37,946	42.9%	2,325	2.6%	39,628	18,887	47.7%	-6.8%	20,701	52.2%	40	0.10%

10 Highest Counties: 2011 Total Vote as a Ratio of 2008

	Total	Obama		McCain		Other		Ratio	Total	Kloppenburg		Change	Prosser		Other
Dane	283,791	205,984	72.6%	73,065	25.7%	4,742	1.7%	64.24%	182,305	133,565	73.3%	0.7%	48,636	26.7%	104	0.06%
Door	18,303	10,142	55.4%	7,112	38.9%	1,049	5.7%	53.97%	9,878	4,662	47.2%	-8.2%	5,200	52.6%	16	0.16%
Forest	5,060	2,673	52.8%	1,963	38.8%	424	8.4%	53.93%	2,729	1,196	43.8%	-9.0%	1,531	56.1%	2	0.07%
Green	18,830	11,502	61.1%	6,730	35.7%	598	3.2%	57.15%	10,761	5,860	54.5%	-6.6%	4,883	45.4%	18	0.17%
GreenLake	9,743	4,000	41.1%	5,393	55.4%	350	3.6%	59.80%	5,826	2,049	35.2%	-5.9%	3,777	64.8%	0	0.00%
Ozaukee	53,910	20,579	38.2%	32,172	59.7%	1,159	2.1%	54.08%	29,157	8,296	28.5%	-9.7%	20,845	71.5%	16	0.05%
Taylor	9,776	4,563	46.7%	4,586	46.9%	627	6.4%	60.85%	5,949	2,290	38.5%	-8.2%	3,652	61.4%	7	0.12%
Vernon	14,279	8,463	59.3%	5,367	37.6%	449	3.1%	55.40%	7,911	4,331	54.7%	-4.5%	3,578	45.2%	2	0.03%
Washington	77,144	25,719	33.3%	47,729	61.9%	3,696	4.8%	52.75%	40,693	9,902	24.3%	-9.0%	30,777	75.6%	14	0.03%
Waukesha	233,435	85,339	36.6%	145,152	62.2%	2,944	1.3%	53.58%	125,070	32,758	26.2%	-10.4%	92,263	73.8%	49	0.04%

10 Lowest Counties: 2011 Total Vote as a Ratio of 2008

	Total	Obama		McCain		Other		Ratio	Total	Kloppenburg		Change	Prosser		Other
Barron	24,648	12,078	49.0%	10,457	42.4%	2,113	8.6%	37.94%	9,352	4,640	49.6%	0.6%	4,709	50.4%	3	0.03%
Burnett	9,645	4,337	45.0%	4,200	43.5%	1,108	11.5%	37.43%	3,610	1,659	46.0%	1.0%	1,950	54.0%	1	0.03%
Crawford	12,496	4,987	39.9%	2,830	22.6%	4,679	37.4%	32.95%	4,117	2,428	59.0%	19.1%	1,689	41.0%	0	0.00%
Florence	3,428	1,134	33.1%	1,512	44.1%	782	22.8%	37.40%	1,282	483	37.7%	4.6%	799	62.3%	0	0.00%
Kenosha	79,956	45,836	57.3%	31,609	39.5%	2,511	3.1%	38.33%	30,651	16,207	52.9%	-4.5%	14,388	46.9%	56	0.18%
Marquette	13,780	4,068	29.5%	3,654	26.5%	6,058	44.0%	28.66%	3,949	1,726	43.7%	14.2%	2,220	56.2%	3	0.08%
Menominee	7,664	1,257	16.4%	185	2.4%	6,222	81.2%	4.98%	382	241	63.1%	46.7%	141	36.9%	0	0.00%
Pierce	23,387	11,803	50.5%	9,812	42.0%	1,772	7.6%	38.33%	8,964	4,904	54.7%	4.2%	4,053	45.2%	7	0.08%
St. Croix	45,203	21,177	46.8%	22,837	50.5%	1,189	2.6%	35.92%	16,235	7,953	49.0%	2.1%	8,272	51.0%	10	0.06%
Washburn	12,481	4,693	37.6%	4,303	34.5%	3,485	27.9%	37.85%	4,724	2,453	51.9%	14.3%	2,270	48.1%	1	0.02%