Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

 

Aug. 4, 2011

 

Richard Charnin

 

The Democrats need to win 3 of 6 GOP seats in the recall elections to gain control of the Wisconsin senate.

 

Assuming the Wisconsin 2008 presidential election

1) Recorded vote shares and election fraud (expected) in the recall elections, the Democrats will win 1 or 2 GOP seats.

2) Recorded vote shares and zero election fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 3 GOP seats.

3) True Vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats would likely win all 6 GOP seats.

 

The Wisconsin Recall Projection Model is based on the following assumptions for each of the GOP districts:

  1. 2008 Presidential Election recorded vote
  2. Estimated 2008 Fraud Factor (i.e. reduction in Obama’s True District vote share)
  3. Obama voter turnout rate in recall
  4. McCain voter turnout rate in recall
  5. Democratic share of returning Obama voters
  6. Democratic share of returning McCain voters

 

For the selected district, two sensitivity analysis tables display nine Democratic vote share scenarios based on

1)      Democratic vote shares of returning Obama and McCain voters

2)      Obama and McCain turnout rates

 

Base Case Assumptions

1 Equal 63% Turnout of Obama and McCain voters

2 Democratic 91% share of Obama voters                                                                                                                

3 Democratic 5% share of McCain voters

 

Case 1: Assuming the 2008 Recorded Presidential Vote and Zero fraud in the 6 Recall elections

Projection: Democrats win 3 recall elections                                                                     

                                                                                                                       

Case 2: Assuming the 2008 True Vote (Obama’s True Vote was 1.5% higher than recorded) and Zero fraud in the Recall elections

Projection: Democrats win 6 recall elections

 

Assuming the 2008 recorded vote and the recall elections are fraudulent, the Democrats will win 1 or 2 elections.

 

Recall Election Fraud Scenarios                                                                                                                 

Assume

1) Obama’s Wisconsin True Vote was 1% higher than recorded

2) Equal Obama/McCain percentage turnout in the recall elections                                                                                                              

3) Democrats win 92% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters

 then

The GOP needs to switch 2% of Democratic votes to retain senate control

Assuming the Democrats win 94% of returning Obama voters, the GOP would need to switch 3%.                                                                                                                     

 

1) Fraud Factor is the percent reduction in Obama's True Vote share                                                                                                                      

                                                                       

 

Case 1:  Projections based on 2008 Recorded Vote

                                                                                                                       

                                                            Fraud Factor: 1.50%               Democrats win 3 elections                 

                                                            2008 Recorded Vote              Recall Projection                                

            District            Senator            Obama McCain                       Dem                GOP               

            2          Robert Cowles            52%     46%                             50.63%            49.37%                       

            8          Alberta Darling           51%     47%                             49.76%            50.24%                       

            10        Sheila Harsdorf           50%     48%                             48.88%            51.12%                       

            14        Luther Olsen               52%     47%                             50.17%            49.83%                       

            18        Randy Hopper            51%     47%                             49.76%            50.24%                       

            32        Dan Kapanke              61%     38%                             57.99%            42.01%                       

                                                                                                                       

                        Average                       52.83% 45.5%                         51.20%            48.80%                       

                                                                                                                       

 

District 8

                                                                                                            Projected Vote Share             

2008                Share   Turnout                       Mix                  Dem                GOP   

                        Obama             51%     63.00%                        52.04%            91.00%            9.00% 

                        McCain           47%     63.00%                        47.96%            5.00%              95.00%           

 

                                                                                                Total                49.76%            50.24%           

 

 

                        Dem share                   Democratic share of Obama                                                                          

                        of McCain       89%                 91%                93%                                                   

                                                            Democratic Share                                                                               

                        7%                   49.67%            50.71%            51.76%                                                           

                        5%                   48.71%            49.76%            50.80%                                                           

                        3%                   47.76%            48.80%            49.84%                                                           

                                                                                                                       

 

                        McCain                       Obama Turnout                                                                      

                        Turnout           61%                 63%                 65%                                                    

                                                (base case projected vote shares)                                                                               

                        61%                 49.76%            50.45%            51.12%                                                           

                        63%                 49.06%            49.76%            50.43%                                                           

                        65%                 48.39%            49.08%            49.76%                                                           

                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                       

Case 2: Projections based on 2008 True Vote

                                                                                                                       

                                                            Fraud Factor: 1.50%                                                   Democrats win 6 elections           

                                                            2008 Recorded Vote              True Vote                    Recall Projection                    

            District            Senator            Obama McCain           Obama             McCain           Dem                GOP   

            2          Robert Cowles            52%     46%                 53.50%            44.50%            51.95%            48.05%           

            8          Alberta Darling           51%     47%                 52.50%            45.50%            51.07%            48.93%           

            10        Sheila Harsdorf           50%     48%                 51.50%            46.50%            50.19%            49.81%           

            14        Luther Olsen               52%     47%                 53.50%            45.50%            51.47%            48.53%           

            18        Randy Hopper            51%     47%                 52.50%            45.50%            51.07%            48.93%           

            32        Dan Kapanke              61%     38%                 62.50%            36.50%            59.29%            40.71%           

                                                                                                           

                        Average                       52.83% 45.5%             54.33%            44.00%            52.51%            47.49%           

 

 

District 8                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                        Projected Vote Share 

                        2008                Share   Turnout                       Mix                  Dem                GOP

                        Obama             53%     63.00%                        53.57%            91.00%            9.00%

                        McCain           46%     63.00%                        46.43%            5.00%              95.00%

 

                                                                                                Total                51.07%            48.93%

 

                        Dem share       Democratic share of Obama                                                              

                        of McCain       89%                 91%                 93%                                        

                                                            Democratic Share                                                                   

                        7%                   50.93%            52.00%            53.07%                                               

                        5%                   50.00%            51.07%            52.14%                                               

                        3%                   49.07%            50.14%            51.21%                                               

                                                                                                           

                        McCain                       Obama Turnout                                                          

                        Turnout           61%                 63%                 65%                                        

                                                (base case projected vote shares)                                                                   

                        61%                 51.07%            51.76%            52.43%                                               

                        63%                 50.38%            51.07%            51.74%                                               

                        65%                 49.71%            50.40%            51.07%                                                                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                       

Case 3: Recall Election Fraud                                                                                                                     

 

Assumptions

1) Obama’s Wisconsin True Vote was 1% higher than recorded

2) Equal Obama/McCain percentage turnout in the recall elections                                                                                                              

3) Democrats win 92% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters

Then the GOP needs to switch 2% of Democratic votes to retain Senate control.

 

Assumptions:

Same as above except Democrats win 94% of returning Obama voters:

The GOP would need to switch 3%. of Democratic votes to retain Senate control.

 

                        Fraud Factor (1):         1.00%                                                                          Vote switch     3.00%

                                                            2008 Recorded Vote  2008 True Vote                       Recall (based on 2008 True Vote)      

District            Senator                        Obama McCain           Obama             McCain           Dem                GOP

2                      Robert Cowles            52%     46%                 53.00%            45.00%            50.46%            49.84%

8                      Alberta Darling           51%     47%                 52.00%            46.00%            49.55%            50.45%

10                    Sheila Harsdorf           50%     48%                 51.00%            47.00%            48.65%            51.35%

14                    Luther Olsen               52%     47%                 53.00%            46.00%            49.98%            50.02%

18                    Randy Hopper            51%     47%                 52.00%            46.00%            49.55%            50.45%

32                    Dan Kapanke              61%     38%                 62.00%            37.00%            58.07%            41.93%

                                                                                   

                        Average                       52.83% 45.5%             53.83%            44.50%            51.04%            48.96%

                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                Dems win        2

                                                                                   

                        District 8                                                         Projected Recall         

                        2008                Share   Turnout                       Mix                  Dem                GOP

                        Obama             52%     65.00%                        50.06%            94.00%            6.00%

                        McCain           46%     65.00%                        49.94%            5.00%              95.00%

 

                                                                                                            Total    49.55%            50.45%

                                                                                   

 

                        Assume 3% recall vote switching                                           Assume zero recall vote switching     

                                                                                   

Dem Share      Democratic Share of Obama                           McCain           Obama Turnout          

of McCain       92%                 94%                 96%                 Turnout 63%               65%                 67%

 

                                                Democratic Share                                                        Democratic Share                   

7%       49.55%            50.55%            51.55%            63%     52.22%            52.92%            53.59%

5%       48.55%            49.55%            50.56%            65%     51.53%            52.22%            52.90%

3%       47.55%            48.56%            49.56%            67%     50.86%            51.55%            52.22%

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis

 

Assumptions:                                                 

Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%

Equal Obama and McCain returning voter turnout rate                                                        

Democrats win 5% of returning McCain voters                                                        

                                                           

Vote                Democratic Share of Obama voters                           

Switch             89%     90%     91%     92%     93%     94%     95%

 

                        Democratic Election Wins                             

0%                   3          5          6          6          6          6          6

1%                   2          3          5          5          6          6          6

2%                   1          1          2          3          5          5          6

3%                   1          1          1          1          2          5          5

 

 

 

3D Sensitivity Analysis                                      

 

Assumptions:

Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%

Dem 5% share of McCain; McCain 50% turnout                                                

                                                                                                           

                                                                                                           

Vote Switch                            0%                                           3%                                           6%      

                                                                                                           

Obama Turnout           46%     48%     50%                 48%     50%     52%                 54%     56%     58%

                                                                                                           

Dem % Obama                                                            Democratic wins                                

 

95%                             6          6          6                      3          5          6                      2          5          6

93%                             5          6          6                      1          2          5                      1          2          5

91%                             2          5          6                      1          1          2                      1          1          1