Aug. 4, 2011
The Democrats need to
win 3 of 6 GOP seats in the recall elections to gain control of the
Assuming the Wisconsin 2008 presidential election
1) Recorded vote shares and election fraud (expected) in the recall elections, the Democrats will win 1 or 2 GOP seats.
2) Recorded vote shares and zero election fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 3 GOP seats.
3) True Vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats would likely win all 6 GOP seats.
The Wisconsin Recall Projection Model is based on the following assumptions for each of the GOP districts:
For the selected district, two sensitivity analysis tables display nine Democratic vote share scenarios based on
1) Democratic vote shares of returning Obama and McCain voters
2) Obama and McCain turnout rates
Base Case Assumptions
1 Equal 63% Turnout of Obama and McCain voters
2 Democratic 91% share of Obama voters
3 Democratic 5% share of McCain voters
Case 1: Assuming the
2008 Recorded Presidential Vote and Zero fraud in the 6 Recall elections
Projection: Democrats
win 3 recall elections
Case 2: Assuming the
2008 True Vote (Obama’s True Vote was 1.5% higher than recorded) and Zero fraud
in the Recall elections
Projection: Democrats
win 6 recall elections
Assuming the 2008
recorded vote and the recall elections are fraudulent, the Democrats will win 1
or 2 elections.
Recall Election Fraud
Scenarios
Assume
1) Obama’s Wisconsin True Vote was 1% higher than recorded
2) Equal Obama/McCain percentage turnout in the recall elections
3) Democrats win 92% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters
then
The GOP needs to switch 2% of Democratic votes to retain senate control
Assuming the Democrats win 94% of returning Obama voters, the GOP would need to switch 3%.
1) Fraud Factor is the percent reduction in Obama's True Vote share
Case 1: Projections based on 2008 Recorded Vote
Fraud Factor: 1.50% Democrats win 3 elections
2008 Recorded Vote Recall Projection
District Senator Obama McCain Dem GOP
2 Robert Cowles 52% 46% 50.63% 49.37%
8
10 Sheila Harsdorf 50% 48% 48.88% 51.12%
14 Luther Olsen 52% 47% 50.17% 49.83%
18 Randy Hopper 51% 47% 49.76% 50.24%
32 Dan Kapanke 61% 38% 57.99% 42.01%
Average 52.83% 45.5% 51.20% 48.80%
District 8
Projected Vote Share
2008 Share Turnout Mix Dem GOP
Obama 51% 63.00% 52.04% 91.00% 9.00%
McCain 47% 63.00% 47.96% 5.00% 95.00%
Total 49.76% 50.24%
Dem share Democratic share of Obama
of McCain 89% 91% 93%
Democratic Share
7% 49.67% 50.71% 51.76%
5% 48.71% 49.76% 50.80%
3% 47.76% 48.80% 49.84%
McCain Obama Turnout
Turnout 61% 63% 65%
(base case projected vote shares)
61% 49.76% 50.45% 51.12%
63% 49.06% 49.76% 50.43%
65% 48.39% 49.08% 49.76%
Case 2: Projections
based on 2008 True Vote
Fraud Factor: 1.50% Democrats win 6 elections
2008 Recorded Vote True Vote Recall Projection
District Senator Obama McCain Obama McCain Dem GOP
2 Robert Cowles 52% 46% 53.50% 44.50% 51.95% 48.05%
8
10 Sheila Harsdorf 50% 48% 51.50% 46.50% 50.19% 49.81%
14 Luther Olsen 52% 47% 53.50% 45.50% 51.47% 48.53%
18 Randy Hopper 51% 47% 52.50% 45.50% 51.07% 48.93%
32 Dan Kapanke 61% 38% 62.50% 36.50% 59.29% 40.71%
Average 52.83% 45.5% 54.33% 44.00% 52.51% 47.49%
District 8
Projected Vote Share
2008 Share Turnout Mix Dem GOP
Obama 53% 63.00% 53.57% 91.00% 9.00%
McCain 46% 63.00% 46.43% 5.00% 95.00%
Total 51.07% 48.93%
Dem share Democratic share of Obama
of McCain 89% 91% 93%
Democratic Share
7% 50.93% 52.00% 53.07%
5% 50.00% 51.07% 52.14%
3% 49.07% 50.14% 51.21%
McCain Obama Turnout
Turnout 61% 63% 65%
(base case projected vote shares)
61% 51.07% 51.76% 52.43%
63% 50.38% 51.07% 51.74%
65% 49.71% 50.40% 51.07%
Case 3: Recall
Election Fraud
Assumptions
1) Obama’s Wisconsin True Vote was 1% higher than recorded
2) Equal Obama/McCain percentage turnout in the recall elections
3) Democrats win 92% of Obama voters and 5% of McCain voters
Then the GOP needs to switch 2% of Democratic votes to retain Senate control.
Assumptions:
Same as above except Democrats win 94% of returning Obama voters:
The GOP would need to switch 3%. of Democratic votes to retain Senate control.
Fraud Factor (1): 1.00% Vote switch 3.00%
2008 Recorded Vote 2008 True Vote Recall (based on 2008 True Vote)
District Senator Obama McCain Obama McCain Dem GOP
2 Robert Cowles 52% 46% 53.00% 45.00% 50.46% 49.84%
8
10 Sheila Harsdorf 50% 48% 51.00% 47.00% 48.65% 51.35%
14 Luther Olsen 52% 47% 53.00% 46.00% 49.98% 50.02%
18 Randy Hopper 51% 47% 52.00% 46.00% 49.55% 50.45%
32 Dan Kapanke 61% 38% 62.00% 37.00% 58.07% 41.93%
Average 52.83% 45.5% 53.83% 44.50% 51.04% 48.96%
Dems win 2
District 8 Projected Recall
2008 Share Turnout Mix Dem GOP
Obama 52% 65.00% 50.06% 94.00% 6.00%
McCain 46% 65.00% 49.94% 5.00% 95.00%
Total 49.55% 50.45%
Assume 3% recall vote switching Assume zero recall vote switching
Dem Share Democratic Share of Obama McCain Obama Turnout
of McCain 92% 94% 96% Turnout 63% 65% 67%
Democratic Share Democratic Share
7% 49.55% 50.55% 51.55% 63% 52.22% 52.92% 53.59%
5% 48.55% 49.55% 50.56% 65% 51.53% 52.22% 52.90%
3% 47.55% 48.56% 49.56% 67% 50.86% 51.55% 52.22%
Sensitivity Analysis
Assumptions:
Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%
Equal Obama and McCain returning voter turnout rate
Democrats win 5% of returning McCain voters
Vote Democratic Share of Obama voters
Switch 89% 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95%
Democratic Election Wins
0% 3 5 6 6 6 6 6
1% 2 3 5 5 6 6 6
2% 1 1 2 3 5 5 6
3% 1 1 1 1 2 5 5
3D Sensitivity Analysis
Assumptions:
Obama True Vote Share = Recorded + 1.5%
Dem 5% share of McCain; McCain 50% turnout
Vote Switch 0% 3% 6%
Obama Turnout 46% 48% 50% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58%
Dem % Obama Democratic wins
95% 6 6 6 3 5 6 2 5 6
93% 5 6 6 1 2 5 1 2 5
91% 2 5 6 1 1 2 1 1 1